Again, based on what experience?
Its interesting how we form an initial opinion on something based on just a few minutes exposure to something like a TV show that we all know is clearly not going to tell the full story. And yet because its the first opinion we ran into, we stubbornly hold on to that original incorrect opinion in the face of someone who actually knows the full story behind that actual thing you saw on TV, who has significant experience in the area, and who clearly deliniates a list of inaccuracies in that opinion. The smart thing to do is say "fair enough, I guess I have something to learn in this area", and yet the best most of us can get out is this "we'll have to agree to disagree" BS, akin to saying "mistakes were make (but not by me!)".
I am still curious as to your experience in venture capital and starting companies? And really interested in your industry, I live for finding industries populated with this "qualifications" bias? Certainly you can agree to agree on disclosing that?
Clearly not. How does that make anything I've stated in this thread incorrect? Please, go item by item.I trade for a living IE full-time. You said VCs vett an applicant thoroughly therefore there is no need to look at a business plan, then I ask you was Theranos vetted?
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...ock-in-private-companies.305030/#post-4372746
I'm just curious, do you believe if there was a continued pull back by VCs in the Bay area that the sentiment might spill over into the high real estate market in a negative way in that area?It may imply that VCs are getting wiser as Bay area is usually over funded...
I can tell you on the Peninsula real estate values only paused their upward trajectory before resuming it when I lived there during the 2008 housing crisis. The outer outer suburbs like Concord and Antioch with big housing developments got killed, but from Marin to Santa Clara there was really no impact and values have nearly doubled since then. It's a very desirable place for a number of reasons beyond the startup world, and there is really no vacant land available at all so you have to teardown to get a new house. I started living in the Bay area in 1998 and have been waiting since then for the housing market to correct. Much like a unicorn, the irrationality of it can either create its own rationality or outlast you. I've got to believe that if 2008 didn't have an impact a minor pullback in venture investing won't either, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong so I could afford to move back!I'm just curious, do you believe if there was a continued pull back by VCs in the Bay area that the sentiment might spill over into the high real estate market in a negative way in that area?
Interesting, thanks for telling me that. I wonder if it might actually be cheaper for renters to stay in a hotel than to rent? I will go look this up on my own but comment please if you have heard about this.I can tell you on the Peninsula real estate values only paused their upward trajectory before resuming it when I lived there during the 2008 housing crisis. The outer outer suburbs like Concord and Antioch with big housing developments got killed, but from Marin to Santa Clara there was really no impact and values have nearly doubled since then. It's a very desirable place for a number of reasons beyond the startup world, and there is really no vacant land available at all so you have to teardown to get a new house. I started living in the Bay area in 1998 and have been waiting since then for the housing market to correct. Much like a unicorn, the irrationality of it can either create its own rationality or outlast you. I've got to believe that if 2008 didn't have an impact a minor pullback in venture investing won't either, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong so I could afford to move back!
I'm just curious, do you believe if there was a continued pull back by VCs in the Bay area that the sentiment might spill over into the high real estate market in a negative way in that area?
I can tell you there is a weird inversion that I've only seen in the Bay area, and I've lived in most parts of the country. In most other places, the all in monthly cost of owning a house (payments you make on a mortgage plus taxes and insurance minus the tax benefits) is roughly equal to the rent for that same house. In the Bay area the rent can sometimes be half what it would cost you, on a monthly basis, to own that same house. Prices are so astronomical that the rent is very expensive too, but owning is even more so. To more direclty answer you question, the kind of hotel in the place you'd want to live is going to be far more than rent. A lot of hotels are clustered around the SFO airport, not somewhere you'd want to be long-term. About the only secret I know around Bay area housing prices is to buy an old boat and live on it.Interesting, thanks for telling me that. I wonder if it might actually be cheaper for renters to stay in a hotel than to rent? I will go look this up on my own but comment please if you have heard about this.
Thank you for telling me that and thank you for always posting interesting headlines. I feel like I owe you money...well maybe Baron should pay you.Yes but we are at the very early stages, recently some high end properties had to be discounted.
Clearly not. How does that make anything I've stated in this thread incorrect? Please, go item by item.
A lot of full time investors lost a lot of money in Enron, by your logic that means all full time investors are a bunch of idiots who would invest in anything? Admittedly the VC industry isn't well equipped for all out fraud on the part of an entrepreneur, just like the investment community wasn't well equipped for an Enron style fraud. That certainly doesn't mean that anyone with a Stanford MBA can get funded with nothing more than an idea, or that the founder of a start-up need some kind of "qualifications" to successfully start a company, or that there is "too much money" in the valley, or that you have any idea about anything you're pontificating on, all of which has been clearly shown to be misconseptions on your part. And how exactly would a business plan have exposed Theranos? Is this another company you read an article on and are now an expert? Again, how many business plans have you written? How many have you read and then followed the progress of the company to see how closely it confirmed to the business plan. Based on your response I'd guess exact zero, the business plan appears to have reached mythic capabilities in your mind!
When I started searching on staying in a hotel instead of renting in San Fran I started finding crazy stuff like commuting from Las Vegas on a flight daily is cheaper than living in San Fran. That is nuts. Are people really making that much extra money there to offset the costs? I doubt it. Would a software developer who makes $100K anywhere else suddenly make $136K or more in San Fran to offset costs? Is pre-ipo shares the carrot that is dangled? The allure/glamour of working in the Bay Area? It has to be something more than just the money to get people to pay the insane prices to live there.I can tell you there is a weird inversion that I've only seen in the Bay area, and I've lived in most parts of the country. In most other places, the all in monthly cost of owning a house (payments you make on a mortgage plus taxes and insurance minus the tax benefits) is roughly equal to the rent for that same house. In the Bay area the rent can sometimes be half what it would cost you, on a monthly basis, to own that same house. Prices are so astronomical that the rent is very expensive too, but owning is even more so. To more direclty answer you question, the kind of hotel in the place you'd want to live is going to be far more than rent. A lot of hotels are clustered around the SFO airport, not somewhere you'd want to be long-term. About the only secret I know around Bay area housing prices is to buy an old boat and live on it.