Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Quote from cnms2:
I know that you have to draw your gaussians to make sense in relation with your price channels, but in your drawing your increasing thick red gaussian goes obviously against the volume bars' trend ... :confused:
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:D I knew some-one would ask...
The rising slope is determined by bar 7 which is clearly rising compared to the PRIOR Forest Gaussian. This Forest Gaussian does not end until Price stops the Forest trend which does not happen until bar 11.

Down one level, yes, Vol is lower on the second traverse within the traverse (hence the warning of weakness).

The end points of the Guassian are dictated by the end of the price trend, not by Volume. Vol determines the slope and it was already set before we reached bars 10 & 11, until the next FOREST change.

Follow my thinking?
 
Suuure :) I just disagree. I view the red channel as a retrace.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1709505>
Quote from LostTrader:

:D ... Follow my thinking?

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1710190>
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Quote from cnms2:
Suuure :) I just disagree. I view the red channel as a retrace.
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I got no problem with that... :D In the absence of any larger picture, I consider your chart to be just as accurate. Is that confusing or what?

I just know that when at bar 8, I would not be thinking uptrend is already in place.

One other thing - I saw bar 8 as VDU & I don't ever make direction changes based on VDU so I would not draw a B2B on the next bar. But that's just me...
 
What is the point exactly of having "non-dominant RTLs" on the left side in an uptrend?

Are you trying to say there is some information to be gathered from viewing it this way as opposed to a dominant traverse that has slowed pace?
 
HH & HL: uptrend
LL & LH: downtrend

In this example we see HL then HH, so I think: uptrend.
Quote from LostTrader:

I got no problem with that... :D In the absence of any larger picture, I consider your chart to be just as accurate. Is that confusing or what?

I just know that when at bar 8, I would not be thinking uptrend is already in place.

One other thing - I saw bar 8 as VDU & I don't ever make direction changes based on VDU so I would not draw a B2B on the next bar. But that's just me...
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RTL is the trend line. LTL is the other side of the container (channel) determined by the current volatility.

Those retraces are retraces in up trend channels that happen to slope up. That slope is determined (in my view) by the highlighted TLs. For me a dominant is always followed by a retrace, and the RTL position changes, as you advance with the price, between dominants and retraces. Considering the up sloped retraces to have as RTL the other (parallel) line seems incorrect to me.

EDIT: If you look at the third highlighted retrace, its slope is determined by what I marked as its RTL, and not by the other side that is limited by the longer term up channel's RTL.
Quote from Jander:

What is the point exactly of having "non-dominant RTLs" on the left side in an uptrend?

Are you trying to say there is some information to be gathered from viewing it this way as opposed to a dominant traverse that has slowed pace?
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head scratching gaussian drawings
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12-10-07 09:20 PM quote from cnms2
In my opinion this is not the way to stay on the right trading resolution. Tradable channels / tapes are those that have their dominant traverses showing volume increase, and their retraces showing volume decrease, as long as they meet the minimum pace for your expertise.

The sentiment fractals are independent of your chart resolution, which acts as a digital filter, and, from all the fractals that contribute to the price's action, only those that have a frequency at most half of the chart frequency can be observed.

Jack talks about having 30-40 SCT trades a day, which is 81, ES 5 minute, bars. This means an average of one trade every 2 bars (or 10 minutes). This correlates well with transmission theory that states that you need a sampling frequency at least twice the highest frequency of the signal, in order to fully recover the signal. Practically a 5 minute chart doesn't give you enough information to trade faster (more often) than this.

cnms2,
Just so I know what your definitions are, could you please, at your leisure, elaborate on:
Sentiment fractal
Chart resolution as a digital filter
Chart frequency

TIA

lj
 
Quote from cnms2:
In this example we see HL then HH, so I think: uptrend.
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Referring to bar 9, correct?
Sure it is a price move up, and causes a lower level Gaussian change. But it is a small movement and not Forest level -- it is exactly what would (must) happen to form a Traverse Channel inside the Forest Channel.

The move (Price or Volume) is not sufficient to change the Forest Gaussian... to me, anyway...

:)
 
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