In the first example, price forms a lower low and then closes high, giving a reversal (change of sentiment) as anticipated from the jokari window. In the second example, price forms a sym pennant, then an FTP intrabar, then a higher high, giving a continuation on reducing volume, a failure of the jakari window, and no change of sentiment. Is this correct?
Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
- Status
In the first example, price forms a lower low and then closes high, giving a reversal (change of sentiment) as anticipated from the jokari window. In the second example, price forms a sym pennant, then an FTP intrabar, then a higher high, giving a continuation on reducing volume, a failure of the jakari window, and no change of sentiment. Is this correct?
Damn - that shoots one of my lines of thought down in flames. I was thinking intrabar you might anticipate a stall or even possibly a penanant (with attendant volume). In fact you might think if the bar closes right now i have this condition. However by bar end you would know that is what its not. You get increasing volume and continuation in the latter part of the bars formation. The fact that a percentage of the bar was 'stalled' would account for the fact at bar close you have decreased volume from the previous bar.
This is one of those subtle things that happens now and then.
Cheers.
P.S. great example to illustrate DKM.
Im looking for fresh inspiration
Whatever opening I consider I keep coming back to this could change in a couple of bars.Some openings I considered -
Non Dom directional.
Dom Directional
Lateral (likely diminishing volume)
Context
Respecting and within carry over.
Outside carry over +VE but returning and respecting.
Outside carry over BO
etc. etc.
Cheers.
Imo (but what do I know) this has some great points. Sometimes it seems that lower time frame participants are pushing things around (higher frequencies). This results in strange things (noise) on the 'lower frequencies' (higher time frames). If these signals are weak anyway (e.g. lunchtime) clarity can be lost. One thing I think I am getting better at is standing aside when I lose clarity. ( I guess I should really be holding but I don't think there's too much shame in sitting out).
Cheers.
Because when trend abnormalities (flaws, formations pauses, slowing) begin to appear, we know to begin to look for 'end effects' while monitoring. Think in terms of 'sequences' of events. Before when can have a sentiment change what must happen first? Enough people need to decide, "Hey, we need to head the other direction here." Before the number who feel this way reaches critical mass, we have clues resulting from insufficient numbers of these traders.
Watch and 'see' the difference between strong, nicely moving trend on increasing Volume (in the beginning of a Price run) compared to how Price reacts near the end of a Price Run.
- Spydertrader
Well, I know I am late to this discussion, but I thought I'd throw in my two cents.
The whole first 5-6 bars seem like a Forest retrace - bar 5 Vol is less than bar 1. This would appear confirmed by bar 7 strong rising red Vol no part of which can be considered as black Vol. Certainly this indicates to me that a Forest Traverse down is starting.
Yes, there is a B2B at a deeper level in the retrace ( I like cnms2's chart ), I just didn't consider it Forest level.
The traverse p3 forms on weaker Vol and price waffling -- clearly a warning. These two red bars do make lower price lows, so I still consider the Gaussian Red on bars 10 & 11.
And yep, sho'nuf, a B2B follows at the Forest level (rather quickly).
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1710190>
I would consider your 2nd & 3rd example to be what I call "pseudo-tapes" and not valid Forest-level Channels, for me. They may well be TRAVERSES in a Forest Channel, but I still believe a Channel should have a clear Gaussian formation. This helps me stay at a Forest level.
It sure was interesting to see how differently folks can interpret the same picture...
The whole first 5-6 bars seem like a Forest retrace - bar 5 Vol is less than bar 1. This would appear confirmed by bar 7 strong rising red Vol no part of which can be considered as black Vol. Certainly this indicates to me that a Forest Traverse down is starting.
Yes, there is a B2B at a deeper level in the retrace ( I like cnms2's chart ), I just didn't consider it Forest level.
The traverse p3 forms on weaker Vol and price waffling -- clearly a warning. These two red bars do make lower price lows, so I still consider the Gaussian Red on bars 10 & 11.
And yep, sho'nuf, a B2B follows at the Forest level (rather quickly).
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1710190>
Re: your point3.gif
I would consider your 2nd & 3rd example to be what I call "pseudo-tapes" and not valid Forest-level Channels, for me. They may well be TRAVERSES in a Forest Channel, but I still believe a Channel should have a clear Gaussian formation. This helps me stay at a Forest level.
It sure was interesting to see how differently folks can interpret the same picture...
- Status