Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

[ivob]

Quote from FerdinandAlx:

Hi,

Thanks for the respons.

This VE or the bar thereafter may not mean change in the big picture but I was giving it as an example of change with respect to that particular channel.

Of course a point 3 up was still to be expected because of the high volume breakout.

But when I talk about change after VE, I mean change in the channel I am currently operating in just like the VE took place in the blue, valid, channel I had already drawn.

After that, after RTL is broken and then or a few bars later the retrace is confirmed and the pt3 up is near. However, had I been long I would definately have closed my position the bar after VE. I would not have reversed because I don't enter position on RTL bounces yet until I am more comfortable with them.

regards,
Ivo

 

[FerdinandAlx]

Quote from palinuro:

I find your description of what you do confusing. An FTT is always followed by decreasing volume until we hit the RTL, isn't it? So isn't your FTT entry always on decreasing volume?

An FTT almost always occurs on higher volume. What we want to see next is price traveling on decreasing volume towards the RTL. This is the part where our risk is the highest. It's when the breakout on high volume occurs that our risk/reward ratio improves. This is why Jack and Spyder advice beginners to enter on point 3's instead of FTT's. Point 3's carry less risk.

The reason I try to enter on FTT's is because I'm a stubborn beginner who's simply unwilling to leave those extra points lying on the table . I'm prepared to take on extra risk for extra reward. It's still simulated risk anyway , though I plan to do the same thing when I go live.

 

[ivob]

Quote from FerdinandAlx:

An FTT almost always occurs on higher volume.

FTT's always occur on or after decreasing volume. For example checkout 10:05 bar in the image above. Low(er), decreasing volume = change. Fewer people particpate and price has to go to new areas to meet supply and demand. High volume in the direction of the trend = continuation.

regards,
Ivo

 

[FerdinandAlx]

Quote from ivob:
Hi,

Thanks for the respons.

This VE or the bar thereafter may not mean change in the big picture but I was giving it as an example of change with respect to that particular channel.

Of course a point 3 up was still to be expected because of the high volume breakout.

But when I talk about change after VE, I mean change in the channel I am currently operating in just like the VE took place in the blue, valid, channel I had already drawn.

After that, after RTL is broken and then or a few bars later the retrace is confirmed and the pt3 up is near. However, had I been long I would definately have closed my position the bar after VE. I would not have reversed because I don't enter position on RTL bounces yet until I am more comfortable with them.

regards,
Ivo

It's smart to be aggressive, especially when you enter on point 3's. If you exit then and there you'd probably pocket 3-6 points without significant risk.

I decided to be stubborn and sit through the retrace. I entered early on the preceding FTT on the 10:05 bar so I had some margin of safety available to me. Still, I saw my position oscillate between 11 points profit, .5 point loss and 7 points profit again. In hindsight it would have been better to exit when the channel broke and re-enter on the new point 3, but I'm still working on a way to adequately determine when to sit out a retrace and when to be aggressive and exit. Perhaps someone could shed some light on this?

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from cnms2:

Decreasing volume ?

Bingo.

See Jokari Window for additional details.

Quote from bi9foot:

I am correct with this conclusion?

Yes, but with a caveat. change on your resolution level of differs from that of another. When using only the YM 2 minute and the ES 5 minute, draw the lines in the sand (in this specific case the high / low of the previous bar) and do not make decisions until your lines in the sand have been crossed. Each resolution level has different lines in the sand, and each trader has different skill sets, but having the discipline to sit on your hands until those specific lines in the sand have been crossed traverses all resolutions and skill sets.

Good Work.

Quote from ivob:

From what I observed (but pls correct me if I am wrong) a VE means change if the VE bar has higher volume and the bar ends 'far away' from LTL.

This 'change' you describe above occurs on a different resolution level than the one I described. Your description shows an Intra-bar change - one which might require Str/Squ to 'see' in Real Time (maybe it shows up on the YM, but maybe not). Note how different events (different contexts) signal change for different resolution levels.

Quote from BlowFish:

This has me scratching my head a bit as I dont think I have spotted a stark and clear cut difference.

I'm confident a review of some older charts will provide the examples you need to 'see' exactly the phenomenon described.

- Spydertrader

 

[FerdinandAlx]

Quote from ivob:



FTT's always occur on or after decreasing volume. For example checkout 10:05 bar in the image above. Low(er), decreasing volume = change. Fewer people particpate and price has to go to new areas to meet supply and demand. High volume in the direction of the trend = continuation.

regards,
Ivo

FTT's tend to occur when price has run it's course and fails to traverse the channel. Before the FTT occurs you see increasing volume and price traveling in the dominant direction. The volume on the FTT bar is about the same as the volume on the previous bar, perhaps it's usualy a little bit lower. When compared to the the volume on the rest of the bars in the channel it's actually "higher volume" and it stands out quite a bit. A retrace then always follows on lower volume.

If you see what appears to be an FTT occuring on low volume, say 30-40% of the previous bar you're probably dealing with a flaw.

I should have been clearer on this, sorry for the misunderstanding.

 

[callmate]

This was sweet, I hope you all spotted it in time to trade it!

 

[gooch87]

my work for this morning

 

[nkhoi]

Quote from FerdinandAlx:

..
I should have been clearer on this, sorry for the misunderstanding.

insightful comments for a newcomer to the journal.

 

[RoughTrader]

my hand-drawn chart for the morning. Gaussians are color-coded for forest-level trend.

RT