I was referring to the attachment in my post. It shows a very clear, unmistakable pt 3 channel that can be constructed from the start of a session, without volume information.
RT
Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
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I was referring to the attachment in my post. It shows a very clear, unmistakable pt 3 channel that can be constructed from the start of a session, without volume information.
RT
If the first bar has the same length as the following ones there's only one solution, but if it has a different length, or if it is placed a little higher or lower ...
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1672735>
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1672736>
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1672735>
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1672736>
Wow man, that's just excellent.
I'm thinking of holding a little longer than 1 point on those high volume 20 point moves
regards,
Ivo
I'm thinking of holding a little longer than 1 point on those high volume 20 point moves
regards,
Ivo
Quote from FerdinandAlx:
It was a +37,5 point day for me
I'm still sim trading but I expect to go live soon. SCT is going pretty well already, but I think I'm still a little too unrestful in my reversals and need to practise on holding through a nice trend. I also have to work my tick charts and DOM analysis to determine good intra-bar entries. If I can improve those two things my performance will likely double.
Here's my ES chart of November 8 2007:
From what I observed (but pls correct me if I am wrong) a VE means change if the VE bar has higher volume and the bar ends 'far away' from LTL. The next bar is then a low volume bar where price doesn't move much looking somewhat flawish.
In realtime it is hard for me to recognize this kind of change. The next bar, the flawish one, provides a lot of clarity. I used to think when seeing a bar like this that it is a flaw meaning continuation in the up channel, but not after a VE that looks like this.
regards,
Ivo
<IMG SRC="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1672751">
This has got me to thinking. Are we talking about at a single level here, I guess so?
This may well be completely wrong, however its simply a cunning ploy to draw out the answer
Firstly I would normally expect a VE to be accompanied by increasing volume. As a side note I wonder if that is not the case, it might it be similar to a BO on low volume i.e. an indication that your channels need adjustment? I am not sure I would certainly expect change after a VE on low volume but would not expect to see that low vol VE that often.
Is it to do with what follows the expansion? Sometimes you immediately get some sort of fault others you get a non dom traverse of a new steeper channel for example. Sometimes there is change within the bar and you end up with a spike pushed back into the channel.
Really the only fundamental thing I can think of is the accompanying volume, if I saw low volume on the expansion my first thought would be hmm something is 'messed up'. If I saw high volume I would think things are pretty normal. It's what comes next I would be paying attention to. Because its a high volatility time what comes next can often occur in the same bar.
This has me scratching my head a bit as I dont think I have spotted a stark and clear cut difference.
Cheers.
This may well be completely wrong, however its simply a cunning ploy to draw out the answer
Firstly I would normally expect a VE to be accompanied by increasing volume. As a side note I wonder if that is not the case, it might it be similar to a BO on low volume i.e. an indication that your channels need adjustment? I am not sure I would certainly expect change after a VE on low volume but would not expect to see that low vol VE that often.
Is it to do with what follows the expansion? Sometimes you immediately get some sort of fault others you get a non dom traverse of a new steeper channel for example. Sometimes there is change within the bar and you end up with a spike pushed back into the channel.
Really the only fundamental thing I can think of is the accompanying volume, if I saw low volume on the expansion my first thought would be hmm something is 'messed up'. If I saw high volume I would think things are pretty normal. It's what comes next I would be paying attention to. Because its a high volatility time what comes next can often occur in the same bar.
This has me scratching my head a bit as I dont think I have spotted a stark and clear cut difference.
Cheers.
VE - Continuation vs CHANGE( FTT ) ?
This is just an observation that will require more research.
IntraBar Volume Guassians is the key to differentiate Continuation vs Change.
I have observed that Change (FTT) will have a VERY HIGH short lived volume spike within the 5 min bar and the volume will quickly drop down to extremely low volume thruout the remainder of the bar.
Continuation will be a more CONSISTENT high volume thruout the bar and when volume decreases it decreases to a low to medium range volume.
This is just some of my observations. A Volume velocity and Acceleration indicator during the VE I am thinking would give some good clues about CHANGE or CONTINUATION.
This is just an observation that will require more research.
IntraBar Volume Guassians is the key to differentiate Continuation vs Change.
I have observed that Change (FTT) will have a VERY HIGH short lived volume spike within the 5 min bar and the volume will quickly drop down to extremely low volume thruout the remainder of the bar.
Continuation will be a more CONSISTENT high volume thruout the bar and when volume decreases it decreases to a low to medium range volume.
This is just some of my observations. A Volume velocity and Acceleration indicator during the VE I am thinking would give some good clues about CHANGE or CONTINUATION.
I wrote the following in a personal message to bi9foot. I decided to make a post about it in the Journal as it's very much on topic and I hope it will answer some of the questions:
A retraced is over when you see increasing volume in the dominant direction, but often a point three has already defined itself before increasing volume is apparent. A point 3 usualy show itself when:
1) Price fails to traverse a tape or breaks the tape.
2) There is increasing volume in the dom direction on one or two bars.
3) The ES and YM show the same indication of a point 3. I can not think of an example where this hasn't been the case (though arguably my trading experience is limited when it comes to a statement like this).
If I see price move fast in a certain direction I know that a retrace will have to follow sooner or later. This shouldn't make you nervous, infact you should welcome it. A retrace and a point 3 allow you to see the trend and give you the necessary information to enclose price within a channel.
During my sim trading I try to enter on FTT's. If I screw up I reverse or I'll exit and try to re-enter on a point 3. I NEVER enter on decreasing volume because doing so increases risk significantly. The risk/reward ratio is ALWAYS better if you enter on increasing volume.
Decreasing volume is often mentioned as a signal for change. I concider this to be valid only if it occurs when price fails to traverse the channel (FTT) or when it occurs when price is moving in the dominant direction. If price is moving in the dominant direction and volume is decreasing it's smart to exit. Usually this situation occurs during lunch hours and a CCC situation follows. If you see decreasing volume which is not preceded by an FTT and doesn't occur when price is moving in the dominant direction you can just lean back in your chair and hold your position (or get ready to enter on a point 3). It means you're in a retrace.
A retraced is over when you see increasing volume in the dominant direction, but often a point three has already defined itself before increasing volume is apparent. A point 3 usualy show itself when:
1) Price fails to traverse a tape or breaks the tape.
2) There is increasing volume in the dom direction on one or two bars.
3) The ES and YM show the same indication of a point 3. I can not think of an example where this hasn't been the case (though arguably my trading experience is limited when it comes to a statement like this).
If I see price move fast in a certain direction I know that a retrace will have to follow sooner or later. This shouldn't make you nervous, infact you should welcome it. A retrace and a point 3 allow you to see the trend and give you the necessary information to enclose price within a channel.
During my sim trading I try to enter on FTT's. If I screw up I reverse or I'll exit and try to re-enter on a point 3. I NEVER enter on decreasing volume because doing so increases risk significantly. The risk/reward ratio is ALWAYS better if you enter on increasing volume.
Decreasing volume is often mentioned as a signal for change. I concider this to be valid only if it occurs when price fails to traverse the channel (FTT) or when it occurs when price is moving in the dominant direction. If price is moving in the dominant direction and volume is decreasing it's smart to exit. Usually this situation occurs during lunch hours and a CCC situation follows. If you see decreasing volume which is not preceded by an FTT and doesn't occur when price is moving in the dominant direction you can just lean back in your chair and hold your position (or get ready to enter on a point 3). It means you're in a retrace.
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