Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

Status
Not open for further replies.
Quote from ivob:

...So why don't we trade just MA's then?
More...
I do not trade on MA.
MA is a lagging indicator. It is just another "helper", another tool, another hint, to the bigger scheme of things. It gives me cautious signal, instead of action signals.
 
Quote from Tums:

I would have put the LTL differently.

I have added my red LTL.
Your black LTL is a VE LTL.
The price made a retreat after VE -- i.e. caution... continuation is in question.
More...


I disagree with this. YES, my line is a VE line. So what? IMO I have drawn it 100% correct.

Retreat from a VE LTL does not mean change. Yes, it COULD mean change but as volume was about 50% of the former bar I concluded "no change".

I even checked YM for more clarification (checkout circled area).

Is there any possible way the first 4 bars after the 10:14 bar tell you there was a change on YM? Not at all in my opinion. On the contrary, volume is much lower than the preceeding gaussian bar so it says FLAW and not change. There's all indication that this would continue. This looks more like sideways movement to me than decreasing black.

VE only means an FTT could happen soon. VE could also continue for a (long) while and many points. I don't see that FTT.

regards,
Ivo

<IMG SRC="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1608066">
 

Attachments

Quote from Tums:

I do not trade on MA.
MA is a lagging indicator. It is just another "helper", another tool, another hint, to the bigger scheme of things. It gives me cautious signal, instead of action signals.
More...

Hi Tums,

Ok then. If it's just another helper then I wonder what are the other data elements in your dataset that made you know that change had occured?

What was your action signal then?

I appreciate your comments but I think if you look afterwards for "something" that does confirm why the market did what it did you will always find something just like you will find some reasons why the market could have gone in the other direction.

I think my dataset for continuation is far more complete:

Reason for change:
- price touched MA20
- small retreat from VE(...)

Reasons for continuation:
- No FTT on ES
- Flaw volume on ES after VE
- FTT on YM BUT flaw volume after that
- good volume in direction of the trend (new highs on higher volume)
- BO carry over channel (YM). The action is hold.
- YM --> price moving sideways to RTL = lateral in up channel.
- ES volume higher than previous bar
- no signal on stretch / squeeze.

In my opinion the alarm signal is the 10:24 bar on YM. But that bar went fast just like the corresponding bar on ES.

regards,
Ivo
 
Quote from Bearbelly:

Whenever we gap down I suspect any move up as a possible point three down from the previous sessions last high as point one.
More...

Hi BB,

Sure but that does not anwer the question how we could know there was change right there. We were still having an up channel with all its characteristics.

After all you are not just shorting "any move up" on a gap down.


regards,
Ivo
 
Quote from ivob:

Hi Tums,

Ok then. If it's just another helper then I wonder what are the other data elements in your dataset that made you know that change had occured?

What was your action signal then?
...
More...
Ivo:

At that bar, I did not received a signal for change.
As a conservative move, I did exit my long at 10:18, because I could not find continuation after the VE.

In hindsight, I could have reversed. But I am not at the SCT level yet.
 
Quote from ivob:

Hi BB,

Sure but that does not anwer the question how we could know there was change right there. We were still having an up channel with all its characteristics.

After all you are not just shorting "any move up" on a gap down.


regards,
Ivo
More...

No but it sure makes me a lot more suspicious of "flaws".
 
Quote from Bearbelly:

No but it sure makes me a lot more suspicious of "flaws".
More...

p.s. On a side note, NQ was moving down almost from the open. Dont know if its kosher to mention that.:)
 
Quote from Bearbelly:

No but it sure makes me a lot more suspicious of "flaws".
More...

Hi BB,

I would like to be convinced but I am not.

I am always suspicious and I was also expecting a pt3 down but could not find enough data elements to be short there. A flaw is still a flaw even after a gap in my opinion.

Ivo
 
Quote from Bearbelly:

p.s. On a side note, NQ was moving down almost from the open. Dont know if its kosher to mention that.:)
More...

Ehh. Well, I'd be happy to start following NQ if it helps with learning this method but I don't remember JH or Spyder mentioning this.

regards,
Ivo
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top