Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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To anyone that had trouble this morning with the last link provided.The account was filled overnight with views. I just upgraded so everyone can open it today. This link should last a while.

Ill post the link here once more.

I would like to post another video, but I will shorten it as much as possible, also I will add audio as to put thoughts to it.

http://www.screencast.com/t/rl9FeO3gMoT
 
Quote from Mr_Black:

Moment 2:
Oops. What went wrong?

Ivo .... My opinion is that nothing went wrong, your chart is great sample of how the volume leeds price. What I see is almost text book volume cycle. Everything is on the table no games played.
What we have here is rising black volume followed by decreasing black ( slow pace) and 1st increasing Red ...... Market just change his direction.... That is what I see only from looking 5 min ES and Volume.... Thank you for posting your chart ..

Regards Mr_Black
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Hi,

I agree but volume went to flaw levels without preceeding FTT... So logically I thought i could not be anything else but a flaw.

regards,
Ivo
 
Quote from ivob:

Hi,

I agree but volume went to flaw levels without preceeding FTT... So logically I thought i could not be anything else but a flaw.

regards,
Ivo
More...

Ivo,

I'm with you. From 12:00 to 12:40 my volume levels dropped from the high at 12:00 of 5900 contracts to 1550 at 12:05 then 756, 1181,872,1091,10921032 and finally 753 at 12:40.

Although I could recognize the 12:00 bar as an FTT (using the channel with PT1 @ 9:35, PT2 @ 10:45, PT3 @ 11:25) the extreme low levels of volume all the way to 12:40 were very misleading. There was no signal of change imo. Just really low "flaw" volume levels.

I see other peoples chart do not have such low volume levels which is disturbing (b/c my data must be way off). Be that as it may, in cases such as these, although rare, I used the RTL of the above referenced channel as a fail safe. Not a good option, but at least there was an escape hatch :D.
 
Another testimony on Don't look at the P/L ...

“I don’t look at what the purse is or the prize money,” Woods said. “You play. And when you play, you play to win, period. That’s how my dad raised me, is you go out there and win. If you win, everything will take care of itself."

From Tiger Woods interview after he won 2 trophies in one tournament.
 
Hi all,

Another similar situation.

moment 1:
Price touched LTL and made a new high on the highest volume of the day so far (no FTT). PRV of the next bar is about 50% of the former bar so we think: FLAW. Is the 10:20 bar an FTT. Well in my opinion price did not try to touch LTL so the answer is no. What about YM? YM made a strong black gaussian at 10:14 but failed to touch LTL. Is this an FTT? Well, 10:16 bar PRV shows 50% of the volume of previous bar and is red, so also here I think: FLAW.

Moment 1: Flaw?
<IMG SRC="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1608014">

Moment 2: Oops.... what did I miss? Why is that 10:20 not a flaw? Volume especially on YM seemed convincing. Is this another Left Trend Line Bounce? How and where could we know that price would not be going higher?

<IMG SRC="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1608016">

regards,
Ivo
 

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I would have put the LTL differently.

I have added my red LTL.
Your black LTL is a VE LTL.
The price made a retreat after VE -- i.e. caution... continuation is in question.

<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1608051">
 

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Quote from Tums:

it touched 20ma, then ...
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Thanks for your post Tums.

Yes okay, I see the MA20 being touched. Did not have it in my graph yet because of the future rollover.

However, that's just one data element isn't it? Doesn't a dataset consist of more elements?

Even str/sq did not give a signal (just an opposite one a little before) and besides, MA's are broken all the time.

Did just the touching of the MA tell you the short side would be the right side here? So why don't we trade just MA's then?

regards,
Ivo
 
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