Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
- Status
The link below shows the video clip of the bar that bundlemaker was referring to on 01/29/07.
http://rapidshare.com/files/53321025/20070129clip.avi.html
The prv begins higher, then goes lower, higher, and lower than the previous bar. The attached chart clip also shows the bar, but with EST time of 10:35.
http://rapidshare.com/files/53321025/20070129clip.avi.html
The prv begins higher, then goes lower, higher, and lower than the previous bar. The attached chart clip also shows the bar, but with EST time of 10:35.
I can't download any clips from that site, but I did take a look at the chart snippet.
It's a retrace off a double bottom from P2 to P3, just where you would anticipate a retrace to occur.
PRV: at what point in the bar did you know that it could not exceed the prior bar's volume? This is the point where you know it cannot be continuation (if the double bottom price action did not alert you first). Or to put it another way, if you were anticipating continuation, at what point did you notice that PRV was flagging relative to the prior bar? Once noted, when were you certain it could not exceed the prior bar's volume?
[Please let me know if there are any logical errors in this analysis or if I am missing the point of confusion.]
Spydertrader Q&A
I intend to post a series of questions addressed to Spydertrader primarily (but any of the more experienced traders are welcome to chip in - you know who you are).
I will post the questions a few at a time to prevent overload and so I can modify the follow up questions depending on the response I get (if any
):
1. How often does a 5 minute bar's price action take you by surprise? (I don't mean due to a distraction but while you are monitoring with your usual diligence, using the complete tool set.)
2. Can you remember when 5 min bars did take you by surprise more often? What do you put this down to mainly?
3. What were the breakthroughs (technical and attitudinal) you made to get to a point where you know what must happen next during every bar (in addition to screen time)?
I hope you offer some insights (obviously you do not have to answer any of these questions in a public forum); I'm sure many would be interested and motivated to read your responses. I feel it is a useful addition to the current discussion on flaws.
If this is out of line, please just ignore this post and move on.
P1
I intend to post a series of questions addressed to Spydertrader primarily (but any of the more experienced traders are welcome to chip in - you know who you are).
I will post the questions a few at a time to prevent overload and so I can modify the follow up questions depending on the response I get (if any
):1. How often does a 5 minute bar's price action take you by surprise? (I don't mean due to a distraction but while you are monitoring with your usual diligence, using the complete tool set.)
2. Can you remember when 5 min bars did take you by surprise more often? What do you put this down to mainly?
3. What were the breakthroughs (technical and attitudinal) you made to get to a point where you know what must happen next during every bar (in addition to screen time)?
I hope you offer some insights (obviously you do not have to answer any of these questions in a public forum); I'm sure many would be interested and motivated to read your responses. I feel it is a useful addition to the current discussion on flaws.
If this is out of line, please just ignore this post and move on.
P1
Just got back from vacation and missed the last 3 days of dialog.
I certainly understand the fustration here.
Not sure of how my comments fits into the current dialog but feel that it adds to the discussion of how to know when you are ready to bring in a new tool.
I will be bringing in the YM chart cause I think I have a good handle on the limitations of trading just the ES price/chart. I know exactly where on the ES chart when I need the YM to signal continuation/change.
I certainly understand the fustration here.
Not sure of how my comments fits into the current dialog but feel that it adds to the discussion of how to know when you are ready to bring in a new tool.
I will be bringing in the YM chart cause I think I have a good handle on the limitations of trading just the ES price/chart. I know exactly where on the ES chart when I need the YM to signal continuation/change.
My trading improved when I realised I had to wait for a point three, that a tape is not a channel, and when I started to understand the fractal nature of the market (1-2-3's and FTT's on every fractal). It will improve more when I realise quicker we are having a slow period so I don't enter wrong trades. Another thing is to hold longer when there's no sign of change and to take lower risk trades. Every day I make great trades but too many losers.
regards,
Ivo
Thanks for the clip dkm.
I found the original video, it is from the 'mon_0730' file from the January videos Jack did as a get together. This bar starts at the 1:04:39 point in the video. I went through the complete bar and did a manual prv calculation every 30 seconds and see nothing unusual about the prv in the context of this bar. Side note: it appears tradestation charts show the bar's end time versus qcharts showing as the bar's start time. Can someone confirm this for me? Now I understand why Jack just uses a bar number instead of a time.
Since doing my own review of this bar I have my conclusions but would first like to hear from others before I post mine. What did you find out doing the manual prv? What does the context have to do with this bar and what we might anticipate it's volume to be? Going back to what Mak observed about the first 30 to 60 seconds of a bar, does this change any conclusions?
If you don't have the video, I think it is still on pr0crast's site. This clip appears to start between 30 to 60 seconds into the bar.
-Mike
- Status