Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
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I happen to be a pilot. I never suggested soloing immediatlely. But the fact is you're in the cockpit from the first lesson.
And what if students questions are ignored? I'm not talking about jumping ahead. I'm talking about unresolved basic stuff. I'm not anxious to move forward, I'm anxious to understand. Instead of getting an answer I'm told that either I understood wrong or didn't follow directions. Funny how a few dozen people cant' follow directions.
Additionally, speaking in absolutes doesn't help. Go back and review some of what has transpired. Spyder has made ludicrous statements. You CAN NOT KNOW that more volume is coming at some point in the future any more than I can know I'll be alive 3 hours from now. Very probable yes, (and I hope
) not sure.Ivo, sorry, I missed this earlier.
You hit the nail on the head. It feels EXACTLY like I'm guessing, all the time, even at bar end.
I have carved out two possible routes to not guessing. One, (the preferred path) is that an expert demonstrates how it works. I understand that's not possible.
The second possiblity is to ask penetrating, and specific questions. Hoping that I would get answers. Look back over the past 20 pages or so. In there are lot of questions. The answer always comes back that it's my responsiblity to figure out an answer. Well, after 8 months I haven't been able to do that. During the day, there are so many varibles to hold in ones head, so many potential contexts, things changing so often, that I simply am not capable of doing this.
And before someone suggests that what I have said about "so many" and "so much" is wrong, all I can say is that's truly my experience. Being told again and again that screen time will fix all evils, after 8 months of doing this, and still stuck at the basics, well, what does that suggest to you?
Quote from bundlemaker:
Spyder has made ludicrous statements. You CAN NOT KNOW that more volume is coming at some point in the future any more than I can know I'll be alive 3 hours from now. Very probable yes, (and I hope
I know the sun will rise in the morning.
Not because of mathematical certainty, but because the odds of the sun not rising are so remote, for the purposes of any discussion, they do not apply.
But if you want to take the other side of the 'sun rising' trade and buy 'sunrise puts', let me know. I'll have no problem taking the other side of that trade. Otherwise, I plan to operate my life as if the sun has zero chance of not rising in the morning.
The same holds true for Volume. Unknowingly, your assertion that this does not hold true for Volume creates an environment where PRV cannot work. Since PRV does work (and its proven to work every day by those who profit here and over in the equities thread), your assertion cannot be true.
PRV is a basic tool available long before I began this thread. If you do not comprehend its fundamentals, then I suggest a review is in order. However, I personally, do not care what your current belief system tells you with respect to this information. Based on your posts, your belief system is incorrect.
You may not like the answers you (and now the dozen others) have been given, but they are true and accurate. If my statements here were not true and accurate, you'd have already provided numerous examples (I only required one) of the volume bar without volume (as outlined in a previous post). Since you have neither provided an example, nor provided any other proof, other than your vast experience as a pilot and race car driver instructor, and your personal intelligence level, a logical person would conclude the proof of your assertion does not exist.
Therefore, a logical person would also conclude you have two choices before you. Either except as true and accurate my statements with respect to volume, and get on with the process of learning how to correctly use PRV, or provide the one example where the system fails to operate as I have outlined.
Any other choice does not provide clarity, nor does it move the discussion forward.
- Spydertrader
Spyder,
YOu continue to twist my words and avoid answering my questions. I never said a bar that has no volume. I said a bar that more volume stops coming into.
You have no idea how much confusion you create for many of us when you say "absolutely for sure 100%" and then use the word "odds". All of this would be a non-issue if we had so much as even an hour of recorded annotations to get inside your head and begin to "see" as you do. All the screen time in the world will not change this if I (or anyone else) don't have the correct mental strategies to make it work.
Would you please, for the sake of all of us learning disabled, state exactly how PRV is to be used? You say it works. What exactly is working? How does it work. How does someone who doesn't even get the fundamentals use PRV? No where are there clear, unambiguous instructions. YOu've been asked by many people how you read PRV when price is bouncing black to red, back and forth. And I have never seen an answer that is useful. So, your right, I don't know that even most basic application.
Your answer, no doubt, will be to say "just watch". That's a cop out. That's not teaching, that's not helping.
I can't provide an example of what you want until the market is open.
YOu continue to twist my words and avoid answering my questions. I never said a bar that has no volume. I said a bar that more volume stops coming into.
You have no idea how much confusion you create for many of us when you say "absolutely for sure 100%" and then use the word "odds". All of this would be a non-issue if we had so much as even an hour of recorded annotations to get inside your head and begin to "see" as you do. All the screen time in the world will not change this if I (or anyone else) don't have the correct mental strategies to make it work.
Would you please, for the sake of all of us learning disabled, state exactly how PRV is to be used? You say it works. What exactly is working? How does it work. How does someone who doesn't even get the fundamentals use PRV? No where are there clear, unambiguous instructions. YOu've been asked by many people how you read PRV when price is bouncing black to red, back and forth. And I have never seen an answer that is useful. So, your right, I don't know that even most basic application.
Your answer, no doubt, will be to say "just watch". That's a cop out. That's not teaching, that's not helping.
I can't provide an example of what you want until the market is open.
Continued Flaws and Internal Formations
Note Friday's Chart, and focus on the areas outlined in Yellow. Note how Volume works when price breaks free of the Yellow Boundaries. Note also how a change in dominant Volume takes place when price exists in the opposite direction of the current trend. Using these formations, in combination with PRV and Price breakout, a trader can follow this crystal clear signal from the market with respect to which side of the market is 'the right side'
How to spot these formations in real time?
Let's start with Pennants (FTP, FBP & Sym). By definition, Pennants represent a three bar phenomenon. However, in the real world, most Pennants only form using two bars, and on the third, temporarily pause before breaking out. When you spot a forming Pennant (meaning it looks like a Pennant before the second bar has closed) draw in your Boundary lines. If Price moves out of the Boundary lines before closing on the second bar, simply delete the lines. With experience, you'll learn to spot these formations quickly without the aid of adding the Boundary lines.
Once you do have an actual pennant, beginning with the open of the third bar, begin to watch PRV very closely. When PRV starts to move (to increasing over the previous bar), you'll know to take the trade. We expect Price and Volume to 'break out' of the Pennant, and resume translation. We also, want to be on the lookout to see if this formation aided in the creation of a Point Three Channel - where Point Three falls on the last bar of the Pennant.
Now, what might go wrong?
Price could exit the Pennant, bounce back (off a wall or STR / SQU could fire or something else along these lines) and close back inside the Pennant formation. We want to treat this just like an FBO - meaning we consider Price to not really have broken out, so we want to 'reset' and wait again for the BO from the formation.
Price could also simply go into CCC and not break out. You'll know this rare occurrence by the extremely low levels of Volume. In this case, simply sideline and await the return of normalized volume levels. When we do have CCC, you'll want to watch for a Pennant formation on the end of the CCC. Convergence often ends in a Pennant.
Lateral formations are a bit different. While certainly one can 'see' Volume playing its normal role with respect to driving Price, holding or trading within a lateral formation requires a bit of additional insight. Once the Lateral begins to form (series of inside bars),*** a trader needs to determine the range (high to low) of the formation itself. Calculated by the range of the first bar in the formation, one single needs to determine if enough a range exists allowing a trader to slalom within the lateral. I personally require a six tic range here, but Jack has often spoken of needing only five tic range. Your mileage may vary. Once determined that one can trade (via range calculation), a trader than needs to determine if Harmonics plays a role.
The harmonics I am speaking of is not my adjacent bar harmonics, but rather, the Harmonics PointOne articulated in previous posts, and that which Jack has outlined in the past. I encourage a review for those who need a refresher.
If Harmonics 'matches' up with the current formation, a trader may simply want to hold through this formation, as it often is nothing more than a non-dominant traverse. Again, your mileage may vary.
Lastly, remember the drill a while back about determining continuation or change at the end of every bar? Well, now is the time to do that little exercise again. Only this time, the bars which give you confusion, set aside for later. Once finished with the exercise, go back, and see how many of these 'confusing' bars now apply to flaws and formations. Hopefully, armed with this current knowledge, you'll experience far fewer 'confusing bars'
Good Trading and Good Journey to you all.
- Spydertrader
Note Friday's Chart, and focus on the areas outlined in Yellow. Note how Volume works when price breaks free of the Yellow Boundaries. Note also how a change in dominant Volume takes place when price exists in the opposite direction of the current trend. Using these formations, in combination with PRV and Price breakout, a trader can follow this crystal clear signal from the market with respect to which side of the market is 'the right side'
How to spot these formations in real time?
Let's start with Pennants (FTP, FBP & Sym). By definition, Pennants represent a three bar phenomenon. However, in the real world, most Pennants only form using two bars, and on the third, temporarily pause before breaking out. When you spot a forming Pennant (meaning it looks like a Pennant before the second bar has closed) draw in your Boundary lines. If Price moves out of the Boundary lines before closing on the second bar, simply delete the lines. With experience, you'll learn to spot these formations quickly without the aid of adding the Boundary lines.
Once you do have an actual pennant, beginning with the open of the third bar, begin to watch PRV very closely. When PRV starts to move (to increasing over the previous bar), you'll know to take the trade. We expect Price and Volume to 'break out' of the Pennant, and resume translation. We also, want to be on the lookout to see if this formation aided in the creation of a Point Three Channel - where Point Three falls on the last bar of the Pennant.
Now, what might go wrong?
Price could exit the Pennant, bounce back (off a wall or STR / SQU could fire or something else along these lines) and close back inside the Pennant formation. We want to treat this just like an FBO - meaning we consider Price to not really have broken out, so we want to 'reset' and wait again for the BO from the formation.
Price could also simply go into CCC and not break out. You'll know this rare occurrence by the extremely low levels of Volume. In this case, simply sideline and await the return of normalized volume levels. When we do have CCC, you'll want to watch for a Pennant formation on the end of the CCC. Convergence often ends in a Pennant.
Lateral formations are a bit different. While certainly one can 'see' Volume playing its normal role with respect to driving Price, holding or trading within a lateral formation requires a bit of additional insight. Once the Lateral begins to form (series of inside bars),*** a trader needs to determine the range (high to low) of the formation itself. Calculated by the range of the first bar in the formation, one single needs to determine if enough a range exists allowing a trader to slalom within the lateral. I personally require a six tic range here, but Jack has often spoken of needing only five tic range. Your mileage may vary. Once determined that one can trade (via range calculation), a trader than needs to determine if Harmonics plays a role.
The harmonics I am speaking of is not my adjacent bar harmonics, but rather, the Harmonics PointOne articulated in previous posts, and that which Jack has outlined in the past. I encourage a review for those who need a refresher.
If Harmonics 'matches' up with the current formation, a trader may simply want to hold through this formation, as it often is nothing more than a non-dominant traverse. Again, your mileage may vary.
Lastly, remember the drill a while back about determining continuation or change at the end of every bar? Well, now is the time to do that little exercise again. Only this time, the bars which give you confusion, set aside for later. Once finished with the exercise, go back, and see how many of these 'confusing' bars now apply to flaws and formations. Hopefully, armed with this current knowledge, you'll experience far fewer 'confusing bars'
Good Trading and Good Journey to you all.
- Spydertrader
Spyder, here is an example. I don't think anyone would argue against this as too statistically out there.
PRV = (bar length X current volume)/(time elapsed)
Prior bar's volume was 14,000
1 minute into current bar volume is 3,000 which is 15,000 on a PRV basis and thus PRV is increasing
2 minute into current bar volume is 5,500 which is 13,750 on a PRV basis and thus PRV is decreasing
3 minute into current bar volume is 9,000 which is 15,000 on a PRV basis and thus PRV is increasing
THis happens all day long over and over.
PRV = (bar length X current volume)/(time elapsed)
Prior bar's volume was 14,000
1 minute into current bar volume is 3,000 which is 15,000 on a PRV basis and thus PRV is increasing
2 minute into current bar volume is 5,500 which is 13,750 on a PRV basis and thus PRV is decreasing
3 minute into current bar volume is 9,000 which is 15,000 on a PRV basis and thus PRV is increasing
THis happens all day long over and over.
I am a pilot too.
Being trained as a pilot has its advantages -- We anticipate. ;-)
We look at all the gauges for clues, telltale signs, and abnormalities.
No one single instrument gives the whole story. We have to scan all the tools available to us, at the appropriate moment.
We process the information in real time, and have to make decisions on the spot.
Not all the signals are important.
Not all the signals are useful.
Some signals are just noise. Some noise are signals.
Sounds familiar? It is the same MADA process we use for trading.
Being trained as a pilot has its advantages -- We anticipate. ;-)
We look at all the gauges for clues, telltale signs, and abnormalities.
No one single instrument gives the whole story. We have to scan all the tools available to us, at the appropriate moment.
We process the information in real time, and have to make decisions on the spot.
Not all the signals are important.
Not all the signals are useful.
Some signals are just noise. Some noise are signals.
Sounds familiar? It is the same MADA process we use for trading.
I see a great parallel between teaching / training somebody to car race, and teaching / training somebody to trade. The instructor can teach the pupil how to handle the car, what to do in certain situations, what attitude to adopt in a competition, etc.. But it's up to the pupil to use all these and to be able to win in competition with the other traders, ... I mean drivers ... What would you tell a pupil who'd complain that you didn't give him a straight rule about when to turn and at what speed, that he can apply in all occasions ...? How would you handle that pupil?
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1590882>
What would you tell a pupil who'd complain that you didn't give him a straight rule about when to turn and at what speed, that he can apply in all occasions ...? How would you handle that pupil? <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1590882>
Ok, Ok, I admit it, I am one too.
Anyway here is some deja vu all over again, another blast from the past from Mak. Can you tell I just finished reading this thread?
-Mike
makosgu
Registered: Aug 2004
Posts: 1164
04-09-06 01:31 PM
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Quote from nononsense:
Question for Grob/Hershey...
How come bubba/Grob/Jack doesn't answer questions anymore. Going by the last 100+ posts in this thread, people badly need his guidance, especially with them hairy math questions.
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Your ordeal is the classic problem of why anyone should feel they are owed an answer. I had to learn the hard truth of the matter that in fact I do have all the answers to my own questions. It may take alot of time to get to the answer, but I am very thankful that there is a way of getting from not knowing something to actually finding out the truth of the matter....
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