Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

[dkm]

The following clip may be an example of what Bob is referring to, where we see the phenomenon of flipping blk/red/blk red:

http://rapidshare.com/files/53228710/20070808clip.avi.html

The clip is about 3mins long and about 14Mb.

This was a case of an anticipated ftt at 14:30 on 8th August 2007 where, after entry, I experienced this blk/red/blk/red flipping and posted a question on that date. On reviewing the video, it still looks like a potential flaw but in fact turned out to be an ftt.

 

[bundlemaker]

On 1/29/07 the 8:35 and 8:40 bars showed the same phenomenon, although the flipping wasnt' quite as voracious. Keep in mind, I'm not even looking at price or red or black, I'm looking at PRV volume versus prior bar volume. Color has nothing to do with it at this basic level. I'm trying to understand one component at a time.

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from bundlemaker:

How am I to reconcile this data with your statement.

Simply, post the date of the chart used (most likely different than the date of the presentation) as well as the specific bar in question. I can tell you now, without knowing in advance the date or bar, that this 'thing' of which you speak resulted from either flaw or a formation. I covered what to do when one has a formation in a recent post.

I also recently encouraged everyone to locate the problem bars (by determining continuation or change on every bar and determining which gave problems) and determine if these 'problem areas' resulted from flaws, formations or points of change.

Once located and categorized, A trader then has the ability to determine on their own where they need to focus to 'get it down cold' and move to the next step.

In other words ...

1. Do I want to take a trade?

2. Can I take a trade (do I know I can?)

If one sees a formation, then one is not trading. One is waiting. PRV (and the most recent highlighted, bold red post) tells you if you can take the trade. Red vs Black is another matter entirely.

I look forward to the date and specific bar.

- Spydertrader

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from dkm:

The following clip may be an example of what Bob is referring to, where we see the phenomenon of flipping blk/red/blk red:

To be 100% clear, Bundle has not indicated this was a Red / Black / Red / Black 'flipping' situation to which he referred. His confusion results from PRV being greater than or less than and 'flipping back and forth [between greater than and less than the previous bar] all the time and on every bar.'

- Spydertrader

Quote from bundlemaker:

THis happens all day long over and over.

 

[makosgu]

Quote from bundlemaker:

....
I can't provide the recording this moment, I will do my best to figure out how to grab just the necessary piece. If you have the capability, you can view the 5th bar playing out and PRV moving between increasing and decreasing NO LESS than 16 times between when the ball starts bouncing around 30 seconds I think, and the 4 min mark or there abouts.
...

What exactly are you trying to achieve? If your data was noisy, why didn't you just go coarser to see if you were in a new volume pace. When you are in a DU/VDU pace, things are funny. But we know this because, your SIGNAL to NOISE ratio is practically 1:1. Unfortunately bundle, sometimes we get to the point where nothing suits a particular person. When I was in undergrad, I wanted to be a physics major, specifically theorhetical physics. Somewhere about linear algebra and matrix calculus, the reality of the task set in... Was I to blame the professor who barely spoke English for his percieved inability to have the material connect with me? That's nonsensical! From the stats over time, approximately 1:4 will find something in the thread useful. And those that do, go dead quiet because they do not want others to find what they then understand. 99.9% of these persons will say that they use a variant of some sort and claim it as there own method and not what is spouted here. There are many ways to skin the market cat. For you, it is a matter of finding a means that suits you... Finding the exceptions to something will never get you anywhere. If on bar 5 you saw 16 volume crossovers, what would you have done differently in your trading? Remember, there is only 2 actions! And if you got caught whipsawed to death, why didn't you just EXIT after your second attempt to get on the right side??? Lastly, what part of the volume is the right side for you?

MAK

 

[dkm]

Quote from Spydertrader:

To be 100% clear, Bundle has not indicated this was a Red / Black / Red / Black 'flipping' situation to which he referred. His confusion results from PRV being greater than or less than and 'flipping back and forth [between greater than and less than the previous bar] all the time and on every bar.'

- Spydertrader

Yes I understand. My apologies for an inappropriate post.

 

[bundlemaker]

Quote from Spydertrader:

To be 100% clear, Bundle has not indicated this was a Red / Black / Red / Black 'flipping' situation to which he referred. His confusion results from PRV being greater than or less than and 'flipping back and forth [between greater than and less than the previous bar] all the time and on every bar.'

- Spydertrader

NO WHERE DID I SAY EVERY BAR!!!!!!!

I still am very sorry. I still extend my apologies from the bottom of my heart. I still call you friend, what ever you might choose to call me

And, don't you think maybe, just maybe a little bit, some of the confusion I have stems from how you're communicating? I said "all day long over and over". On 1/29/07 I just cited 3 bars that I found quickly. I can find more if you would find that useful. To me, when something happens multiple times throughout a day, that's what I mean by all day long. I don't mean to imply continuous, I mean ongoing examples.

 

[makosgu]

Quote from bundlemaker:

...And, don't you think maybe, just maybe a little bit, some of the confusion I have stems from how you're communicating? I said "all day long over and over". On 1/29/07 I just cited 3 bars that I found quickly. I can find more if you would find that useful. To me, when something happens multiple times throughout a day, that's what I mean by all day long. I don't mean to imply continuous, I mean ongoing examples.

For clarity, on these 3 bars, how would a different volume analysis change your trading action? I'm just curious since I don't run into this type of flipping issue...

 

[bundlemaker]

Quote from makosgu:

What exactly are you trying to achieve? If your data was noisy, why didn't you just go coarser to see if you were in a new volume pace. When you are in a DU/VDU pace, things are funny. But we know this because, your SIGNAL to NOISE ratio is practically 1:1. Unfortunately bundle, sometimes we get to the point where nothing suits a particular person. When I was in undergrad, I wanted to be a physics major, specifically theorhetical physics. Somewhere about linear algebra and matrix calculus, the reality of the task set in... Was I to blame the professor who barely spoke English for his percieved inability to have the material connect with me? That's nonsensical! From the stats over time, approximately 1:4 will find something in the thread useful. And those that do, go dead quiet because they do not want others to find what they then understand. 99.9% of these persons will say that they use a variant of some sort and claim it as there own method and not what is spouted here. There are many ways to skin the market cat. For you, it is a matter of finding a means that suits you... Finding the exceptions to something will never get you anywhere. If on bar 5 you saw 16 volume crossovers, what would you have done differently in your trading? Remember, there is only 2 actions! And if you got caught whipsawed to death, why didn't you just EXIT after your second attempt to get on the right side??? Lastly, what part of the volume is the right side for you?

MAK

Mak,

If I didn't know of how you usually post I'd be really insulted. You are insuating I'm not making the effort. I am. You can't possibly know how much time and focused energy I am putting into this.

On my desk, this very moment, is a book on the Calculus of Variations and Feynmans expository on the path intregral formulation of quantum mechanics. I did not have the opportunity to go to college. So, do I blame someone? No, I go to the library several days a week and study. And study. And study. Just like trading. I know what it means to work hard. I also know what it means to sweat.

I have got my wife to sit by my side and spend hours reviewing charts and posts. Trying to make connections. I've happily given of my time to interested friends and will share any amount of time they require to answer theire questions AND I am willing to be flexible to adjust my answers so they get what I'm saying.

I just read about the last 10 pages, and I am so confused by so much that I wouldn't know where to begin. I am TOTALLY lost.

 

[bundlemaker]

Quote from makosgu:

For clarity, on these 3 bars, how would a different volume analysis change your trading action? I'm just curious since I don't run into this type of flipping issue...

The idea, as I understand it, is to correctly identify change/no change, as early as possible. I'm talking real basic, Jokari matrix stuff.

THe only data inputs I have are + or - PRV and price up or down. I'm in the now. I see one set of data. Seconds later I see another set. And so on.

And I know I'm not supposed to be reversing multiple times a bar. At the forest level, I see this happening at potential FTT's and pt3's and RTL's. Which of those many data sets is the one that leads you to making the correct decision?

Thus, my guessing.

Thank you for taking the time to respond.