Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

[Ezzy]

Quote from Avi 8:

The following post from mak over a year ago gives some additional insight into prv.
-Mike

makosgu
Registered: Aug 2004
Posts: 1164
04-10-06 12:48 PM

Some comments as some of you get calibrated to the PRV bars. After a short period of time, you will recognize the behavior of the bars. You will begin to notice how at the beginning of each bar, there is a PRV burst and then wind down to some stable level and then wind up to the close of the bar. This is due to the indicator folks. 5M bars are fairly popular and indicator folks get their signals at the end of each bar. They act at the beginning of new bars based on the data their indicators gather from the end end (ie. close) of the previous bars. Some folks jump on the near close of bars thinking they are outsmarting those will be acting on the data that is gathered from the close of the bar. An alternative would be just to offset the fractal by half, (ie. offset each 5M PRV calc by 2.5 mins). It does not particularly bother me so I don't bother. It's just a comment in case people were wondering why the behavior of the PRV bars are as such...

Regards,
MAK

Towards the end of the equities journal II, Aurum posted a doc for doing a PRV drill. Start at the bottom of the sheet and track the PRV through the bar. You get to see the surging and retreating of PRV.

It's a good drill to go through and you can visually see what MAK was referring too. As well as the scenarios that TUMS posted. - EZ

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1294283&highlight=PRV#post1294283

 

[Ezzy]

Quote from mephistoII:

I have a question concerning volume and the recent increase in volatility. We've had a good percentage of days the past several weeks in which the VDU and DU states were never seen. In fact, on my own charts, the volume rays have often become so compressed that they are virtually indistinguishable (poor eyesight doesn't help matters). Has anyone made any adjustments to Mak'sVolume/Volatility matrix? To ask in a different manner, is there any way to extrapolate new volume rays to account for the increased volatility? For example, doubling our normal vol levels. Common sense probably dictates a more 'on the fly/seat of the pants/visual calibration' type approach, but have wanted to ask nonetheless.

Check page 48 of the Channels for BW pdf. Somewhere I read that the ES levels were originally set by eyeballing the chart, and MAK's speadsheet coincidentally confirmed them. For example in equities, instead of using a formula for DU, FRV and Peaking volume, you could eyeball the chart and put rays on it instead.

So you would look at the chart and see at or above what volume levels the trends were operating at, what levels there were no trends, etc.

Hope that helps. - EZ

 

[ivob]

Quote from bundlemaker:

Ivo,

With all due respect, you've regurgitated, you haven't thought it out. Again, I ask, what does it mean whether you have a dip, or a stall, or a hitch or an HVS? Not is it one?

First you take the trade (because it looks like FTT). Then you find out it's a flaw (based on PRV) so you know the trend will continue (but you don't know when yet). As soon as you find out which kind of flaw it is you can trade accordingly. For example a HVS is traded different then a hitch or dip where the trend resumes relatively quickly compared to HVS in wich case you can decide to reverse immediately.

Quote from bundlemaker:

So far, nothing has shown us in the syllabus how to know something is a flaw anytime before the bar after one. Spyder has just stated this will come up in the coming days.

PRV can tell you but why do you even care? If you think it is not possible to know this before the end of bar then do wait for the end of bar and take action then. (exit or reverse if you took the trade when it still looked like FTT). Why trying to determine if it's a flaw intrabar if you think this is not possible. Just do what you think IS possible. Doing things of which you are not sure if they are possible is simply guessing.

Am I completely missing your point here?

regards,
Ivo

 

[Bearbelly]

Every cloud has a silver lining. This little family squabble has been very informative for me. Many times I do not understand what Spyder is trying to say the first time, sometimes even the second or third time but eventually he states things in a way that I can understand so these exchanges are good.

 

[bundlemaker]

Quote from Spydertrader:

I see now why you experience so much difficulty. You always want to jump ahead to the next step before mastering the current one. Why not simply follow directions as I posted them? What difference does it make what you will do with the information next? You haven't completed the task at hand. How does knowing the next set of instructions help you follow this set of instructions?

A quote from long ago ...

You've given me so many different sets of things to do at different times that I truly am confused as to what it is I'm supposed to be doing with what data at what times. Let's get something straight: you are willing to share but you certainly aren't teaching. Handing out information how you want when you want is NOT teaching or caring. I misunderstood your intent at the very beginning. Instead of accepting that your teaching technique/style may be causing bigger challenges than they curb, you just blame the student. Your philosophy of letting the student figure things out is great to start, but after awhile, for those of us not good at Rubik's cubes, we just get more and more frustrated and negative progress is often the result.

Recall this whole thing started when you denied that you told me "you can only know it's a flaw on the bar after the flaw". You did tell me this. It's burried in a recorded 2 hour telephone conversation and in my notes. I wrote down EXACTLY, WORD FOR WORD what you told me. Within seconds after your post, a TUcson group member PM'd me with the date of the post you said something that to most of us meant the same thing. Your first tack was to blame me for putting words in your mouth.

It is the COMMUNICATOR'S responsiblity for good and accruate communication. You haven't been doing this, period.

And, How am I jumping ahead?

 

[bundlemaker]

Quote from Spydertrader:

How does knowing the next set of instructions help you follow this set of instructions?

It helps immensely. It assists the student in seeing the big picture. It assists the student in understanding how the pieces fit together. It assists the student not wandering off course. It provides confidence. And more.

I have instructed in the fields of sports car racing, salesmanship, various academic subjects, and more. I know of what I speak. One of the tricks of the trade that I've used since I was in school was to take the text book, and READ IT FROM THE BACK TO FRONT. I found that I wasn't the only one to do this. All of the very best students did this. Why? To know what comes next each step of the way and to get a different vantage point. You're constatnly suggesting I take a new vantage point. Every time I do that you shoot me down.

I'm a child lost out in the woods. I'm alone. I had someone helping me who is gone. I like this person, because, well, I just like him. Always will.

 

[Tums]

Spyder is teaching, but definitely not spoon feeding.

I can see his teaching style: He gave a map, shown us the direction, told us the landmarks along the way... then we have to make the journey.

For those who missed a turn along the way. You can wag a short cut to the main trek, if you know how. Or, backtrack to where you went astray, and start from there again.

Staying cool is the first order when you got lost.

 

[vjr]

Quote from bundlemaker:


Lets take one you say, step by step, in real time, because in real time, traders need to make decisions now, not after the fact. You say "that we cannot possibly end up with an FTT on this current bar". For traders that are currently at my level, we see this statement as a mystery. You have still not answered the question I have posed, which is a question at least 6 people have also told me they have. The question is, how do you handle this tick by tick, in real time? Let me narrate a scenario: potential FTT, change, so reverse, oops PRV just sank to low volume, so change back, reverse again, oops PRV just shot up again, change, reverse again. This happens all the time. Additionally, there are times (and not an insignificant number) that volume on the FTT bar is <60% of prior bar and it indeed turns out to be an FTT.

ok i just got caught up with the thread for the past few days and i had to comment on the above post.

bb, i think you need to take a step back. ok this is what i see in real time (only using prv, not dom, s/s, etc.). step 1: you have a potential FTT so you take action (lets say it's long). step 2: i'm long and i'm just watching PRV. PRV is constantly changing, but in my mind i already know what i need to see (vol levels ST already mentioned before) for a FTT and a potential flaw. scenario 1: vol closed at 80% of previous bar, so at this point i'm thinking vol looks good for a FTT and now what do i need to "see" next for cont or change. scenario 2: vol closed at 40% of previous bar, so now i'm thinking the last bar could potentially be a flaw. now i watch the next bar like a hawk to see what i need to confirm a flaw. most likely i will see increasing PRV red vol and price heading lower. if i do i exit (more exp you might reverse), now if price starts to head higher i will just hold. like you said in 1 of your post some of these low volume bars will result in FTT's.

It's tough to say (using just PRV) - ok i see 40% PRV vol of previous bar i def. have a flaw, let me reverse. you will have to wait to "see" what the next bar does to see if its a ftt or a flaw. just sit back and let the mkt tell you what you have. don't guess.

Spydertrader is giving us the tools that we need to trade the ES, but we have to use some judgement.

 

[nkhoi]

Quote from bundlemaker:

.. I'm alone. ..

Don’t lost sight of why we study this method. To make money of course, grant that it's not in the huge amount as one would like to see but plus P/L is always better than minus P/L, anyway you look at it.

 

[sscott]

Quote from bundlemaker:

It helps immensely. It assists the student in seeing the big picture. It assists the student in understanding how the pieces fit together. It assists the student not wandering off course. It provides confidence. And more.

I have instructed in the fields of sports car racing, salesmanship, various academic subjects, and more. I know of what I speak. One of the tricks of the trade that I've used since I was in school was to take the text book, and READ IT FROM THE BACK TO FRONT. I found that I wasn't the only one to do this. All of the very best students did this. Why? To know what comes next each step of the way and to get a different vantage point. You're constatnly suggesting I take a new vantage point. Every time I do that you shoot me down.

I'm a child lost out in the woods. I'm alone. I had someone helping me who is gone. I like this person, because, well, I just like him. Always will.

I have some experience in training too, people who want to fly before the instructor knows they are ready, usually crash. If it takes a year to learn these tools and process, so be it. It will be worth it in the end.
Reading a book from back to front reminds me of the term bass-akwards, let the people who are already there tell you how to get there. They know better than anyone what is important and what is not.