Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Just to put a smile on everybody's face: this is how I see the Learning Process ... After knowledge accumulation you notice that you can achieve the same results with less efforts. Eventually you'll break out up through the resistance line of the pennant ... :)

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1590432>
 

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Quote from Spydertrader:

but for now, look at the last chart posted. Study it long enough and you should be able to see differences (compared to what you already know about adjacent price bars) which allow for the differentiation between continuation and change.
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Now I'm just guessing, because it's pretty hard to understand Spyder sometimes what with the way I interpret things and my mind wanders all over the place (those memories!) and the double meanings inherent in every noun, verb and adverb depending on personal context and my varying emotional state at the time....but what I think he is saying is study the chart he posted bar by bar and have an honest go at seeing when you could differentiate continuation from change. It is a non-trivial exercise; no trader is above doing this exercise.

I'm guessing too that it was not a random chart he just had lying around but one he chose carefully so we could all learn something important...so pretty please with sugar on it, do the exercise he suggested.

:)
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

Continued Flaws and Internal Formations

We know that most flaws form when volume significantly differs from the previous bar. I have often discussed how this significant difference in Volume at end of bar has a 'tipping point' around the 40% to 60% level when compared to the previous bar. In other words, if the current bar Volume has somewhere around 90% (or so) of the previous bar then we think, "This bar has all the markings of an FTT." If, on the other hand, we see only 10% of the Volume of the previous bar, we think, "This bar has all the markings of a flaw." The 40% to 60% of the previous Volume bar marks the point at which we distinguish between the two.

Since the beginning of this Journal, we have all had a tool, that on many bars, allows us to know, within the bar itself, that we cannot possibly end up with an FTT on this current bar. The tool to which I refer is PRV. Note the flaws on the examples I have shown. Note The Volume Levels. Is it possible that at some point within the bar itself, one should know exactly what we see because Volume cannot make it to a level where it signals an FTT? or better yet, Volume cannot make it to continuation? Of course it is. Look at those Volume bars. Can you not see how one can most definitely know before the close of the bar?

If I say, we must see a certain Volume level by end of bar, what must occur within the bar for the result at the end of the bar to occur?

So yes, I did not specifically spell out in step by step fashion, complete with road map and atlas, exactly how one can arrive at knowing intra-bar. But I did most definitely, on more than one occasion, spell out exactly what was needed at end of bar.

I apologize for assuming everyone could make the connection between the two.

- Spydertrader
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Sarcasm is not appreciated. I'm taking the heat for a number of people who have the same difficulty as I have. Your post completely misses the point of everything I've been saying. If you really care, you'll respond to this specifically.

Lets take one you say, step by step, in real time, because in real time, traders need to make decisions now, not after the fact. You say "that we cannot possibly end up with an FTT on this current bar". For traders that are currently at my level, we see this statement as a mystery. You have still not answered the question I have posed, which is a question at least 6 people have also told me they have. The question is, how do you handle this tick by tick, in real time? Let me narrate a scenario: potential FTT, change, so reverse, oops PRV just sank to low volume, so change back, reverse again, oops PRV just shot up again, change, reverse again. This happens all the time. Additionally, there are times (and not an insignificant number) that volume on the FTT bar is <60% of prior bar and it indeed turns out to be an FTT.
 
Let me try rephrasing...

I understand it's ridiculous to ask for a rule that states look at PRV at so many minutes into the bar, etc etc.

But, somehow, you must have some sort of unconscious algorithm that tells you when to look at PRV. Cause looking at it all the time does not work.
 
Quote from bundlemaker:

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If I am no longer welcome here, please just say so, and I'll shut up and leave. I know you're giving freely of your time, but then again, so are all of us.

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Let me repeat just one of the questions I have brought up: what different does it make what kind of flaw it is. No one, not once, has ever made it clear why we bother differentiating one flaw from another.

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Even hypo got answers, so you know you are welcome here.
To answer your question, right now it makes no diff to me what kind of flaw it is, as I was taught to hold through all flaws. However, it's pretty awesome to know the diff between each of them. Say if I know it is not a hitch, but a stall. Then I can anticipate the longer time it takes for the primary direction to resume.
ps. PRV tool is pretty importance tool to have, if you don't have one then you can use the volume project sheet to project the final volume.
 
I look at the PRV like a hawk.

(edit: a statement has been deleted to avoid topic diversion.)

Jack mention in another thread that he can trade off the volume bars. i.e. with the price bars covered. This shows you how important is the volume information.


p.s. we have done some exercises a few months ago -- to reconstruct the price bars, using the volume bars. Those were good exercises. The results from different people turn out surprisingly similar.
 
Quote from Tums:


If the volume does not move, neither will the price.
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Stating absolutes without qualification is confusing the hell out of people who have brains that work like mine. :)

If what you say is so, then how come see (fairly often) bars with wider range and equal or lower volume (friday had 6 such bars). Would you please describe how you know when to ignore significant (more than say 3 or 4 ticks) price movement on lower volume. This has been one of my real difficulties.

Thanks
 
Quote from bundlemaker:

Stating absolutes without qualification is confusing the hell out of people who have brains that work like mine. :)

If what you say is so, then how come see (fairly often) bars with wider range and equal or lower volume (friday had 6 such bars). Would you please describe how you know when to ignore significant (more than say 3 or 4 ticks) price movement on lower volume. This has been one of my real difficulties.

Thanks
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I apologize for bringing this into the discussion. Please allow me to withdraw the statement. because whether Price drives the Volume, or Volume drives the Price, is a different and lengthy "discussion" altogether, and this is not the right place or time to get into it right now.
 
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