Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Regarding Tuesdays' low volume/volatility - it was roughly a 15 point high to low day. That may seem low compared with the how's it's been lately, but we've had an unusual Summer.

With the average ES day around 8 - 10 points, Tuesday was a good day with normal volume, though a bit light on the open.

Usually the ES chart is scaled at 2 points, on my screen that shows around 10 - 12 points of movement. With all the volatility lately it's been 5 - 10 point scaled. This was just a return to the norm. - EZ
 
watching T&S to find the transition point
TS.gif
 
Spyder,

The following was my mind set at a particular sequence. My assumption (belief) is that I followed correct procedure, and that my action was as good an action as was possible. I request your assessment so that I can be certain I'm on the right path. Thank you.

15:10 In a lateral (HVS) after a FTT of a pt3 up channel. So, price entered the lateral from above. Anticipating exit below.

15:15 In early part of bar price was still in lateral. My eyes were glued to the DOM and watching for a wall on the offer. At 1461.50 I saw 27/478 bid/ask, and kept watching. In a blink, the wall disappeared and I reversed to long.
 
Quote from bundlemaker:

Spyder,

The following was my mind set at a particular sequence. My assumption (belief) is that I followed correct procedure, and that my action was as good an action as was possible. I request your assessment so that I can be certain I'm on the right path. Thank you.

15:10 In a lateral (HVS) after a FTT of a pt3 up channel. So, price entered the lateral from above. Anticipating exit below.

15:15 In early part of bar price was still in lateral. My eyes were glued to the DOM and watching for a wall on the offer. At 1461.50 I saw 27/478 bid/ask, and kept watching. In a blink, the wall disappeared and I reversed to long.
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Here is how I handled it. Had a B2B on the ES (14:40 - 14:50) and a B2B on the YM (15:04-15:10). Only place price could go was up (dominant direction) but was ready to reverse if we got increasing red instead (R2R).
 
Quote from bi9foot:

Here is how I handled it. Had a B2B on the ES (14:40 - 14:50) and a B2B on the YM (15:04-15:10). Only place price could go was up (dominant direction) but was ready to reverse if we got increasing red instead (R2R).
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Glad you brought this up. In the spirit of making decisions in the NOW, and NOT guessing, I don't see how you can use R2R or B2B to make a decision, I've come to conclusion that it's more a confirmation tool after the fact. Often as not, as soon as you get a *2*, trend reverses again. And then I'm right back in the same boat I just extracated myself from.
 
Quote from bundlemaker:

Glad you brought this up. In the spirit of making decisions in the NOW, and NOT guessing, I don't see how you can use R2R or B2B to make a decision, I've come to conclusion that it's more a confirmation tool after the fact. Often as not, as soon as you get a *2*, trend reverses again. And then I'm right back in the same boat I just extracted myself from.
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I certainly did not think I was guessing. The B2B on the ES I mentioned (was 4 bars before 15:15) confirmed that the ES was in an uptrend and 15:00/15:05 had decreasing red (confirming the uptrend - continuation).

The only change signal at this point would have been increasing RED (PRV will tell you without having to wait until the end of the bar).

Now I might really be guessing (un-intentionally) as you say. If so someone let me know so that I can smack myself with a 2x4 so that I remember to not make this mistake again. Also please send me instructions to extract myself from the boat that Bob got out of :)

<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1577910">
 
Quote from bundlemaker:

Spyder,

The following was my mind set at a particular sequence. My assumption (belief) is that I followed correct procedure, and that my action was as good an action as was possible. I request your assessment so that I can be certain I'm on the right path. Thank you.

15:10 In a lateral (HVS) after a FTT of a pt3 up channel. So, price entered the lateral from above. Anticipating exit below.

15:15 In early part of bar price was still in lateral. My eyes were glued to the DOM and watching for a wall on the offer. At 1461.50 I saw 27/478 bid/ask, and kept watching. In a blink, the wall disappeared and I reversed to long.
More...

I recognize 15:00 bar as flaw eventually, after bar :05 and :10 came out. is this the right way to see this?
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1577905>
 

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Quote from bundlemaker:

Glad you brought this up. In the spirit of making decisions in the NOW, and NOT guessing, I don't see how you can use R2R or B2B to make a decision, I've come to conclusion that it's more a confirmation tool after the fact. Often as not, as soon as you get a *2*, trend reverses again. And then I'm right back in the same boat I just extracated myself from.
More...
R2R, B2B is change signal, how can it not helping in making change or hold decision?
 
Quote from nkhoi:

R2R, B2B is change signal, how can it not helping in making change or hold decision?
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Example:

At any resolution of monitoring less fine than bar by bar, a *2* will, by definition, provide a signal multiple bars (at least two and as many as the width of the traverse in question) after the change has occurred.
 
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