Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Quote from bundlemaker:

...15:10 In a lateral (HVS) after a FTT of a pt3 up channel. So, price entered the lateral from above. Anticipating exit below...
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Hey bundle,

This was done in total hindsight as I've been away from intraday monitoring for a few days. I drew the 1510 bar as a pt 3 since I was looking for one after the pt 2 on the BO bar.

Either way your reverse got you one the right side of the market.

-Mike
 

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Quote from bundlemaker:

Glad you brought this up. In the spirit of making decisions in the NOW, and NOT guessing, I don't see how you can use R2R or B2B to make a decision, I've come to conclusion that it's more a confirmation tool after the fact. Often as not, as soon as you get a *2*, trend reverses again. And then I'm right back in the same boat I just extracated myself from.
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The path is there. go back and follow the footsteps and you may find the answer you seek.

btw, is Ginger and Maryanne on that boat?
 

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Quote from bundlemaker:

Spyder,

The following was my mind set at a particular sequence. My assumption (belief) is that I followed correct procedure, and that my action was as good an action as was possible. I request your assessment so that I can be certain I'm on the right path. Thank you.

15:10 In a lateral (HVS) after a FTT of a pt3 up channel. So, price entered the lateral from above. Anticipating exit below.

15:15 In early part of bar price was still in lateral. My eyes were glued to the DOM and watching for a wall on the offer. At 1461.50 I saw 27/478 bid/ask, and kept watching. In a blink, the wall disappeared and I reversed to long.
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FWIW..

I see it a little different

14:50 bar makes a VE and then begins a retrace

14:55 continues retrace at beginning then resumes dominant traverse

15:00 this is the kicker, if you can hold thru this you are alright. Looks like a clear cut ftt and double top. Price action of this bar makes you go hmmm and I would wait for clear direction

15:05/15:10 these two finish out a textbook 3 bar dip imo. I dont see the HVS you are referring to. Hopefully Spy will post his chart and we will know for sure. In any event, this sequence definitely says hold (continuation), I see no reason to have reversed short/anticipate a down move here...
 
Quote from bi9foot:

Also please send me instructions to extract myself from the boat that Bob got out of :)
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I interpreted the reference to the boat as the big aha Bob had a couple of days ago.
 
Quote from bundlemaker:


15:10 In a lateral (HVS) after a FTT of a pt3 up channel. So, price entered the lateral from above. Anticipating exit below.
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Which bar did you think was a ftt?
 
Quote from Jander:

Which bar did you think was a ftt?
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14:50 was an FTT of an up channel I had drawn. Subsequent to the FTT, the RTL was broke on + volume, but the whole thing ended up being a lateral.

I too was anticipating a new forest level pt3. What I'm really trying to sort out is what exactly is the correct context in which to KNOW that pt3 is next or that the follow through down on the lateral is next. Of course, the context includes the sufficient data set. For this thing to be truly boolean (binary as Spyder puts it), there can only be one right way to sort these individual situations out.
 
Quote from bundlemaker:

14:50 was an FTT of an up channel I had drawn. Subsequent to the FTT, the RTL was broke on + volume, but the whole thing ended up being a lateral.

I too was anticipating a new forest level pt3. What I'm really trying to sort out is what exactly is the correct context in which to KNOW that pt3 is next or that the follow through down on the lateral is next. Of course, the context includes the sufficient data set. For this thing to be truly boolean (binary as Spyder puts it), there can only be one right way to sort these individual situations out.
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Not sure I am following you here... Sorry if Im missing something obvious

If 14:50 is a ftt of a pt3 up channel, which started around 1:15 (pt1), then you definitely did not break RTL on increasing volume.

If you are referring to it being an ftt of a 4 bar tape, I really dont see it breaking the tape RTL on incr volume either. You get a decr black (not anticipated) and then a split bar.

Apologies if I am missing the boat or mucking things up further. Just trying to debrief with you and learn some myself. I was under the impression that we dont ever KNOW a pt3 is going to happen, just keep drawing the lines and follow their signals. Hopefully you are correct and there is a plateau to reach where at times like 15:00 today, you know that a pt3 up is about to form rather than a continuation down in the main channel of the day....
 
Quote from bundlemaker:

15:10 In a lateral (HVS) after a FTT of a pt3 up channel. So, price entered the lateral from above. Anticipating exit below.
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I don't see the Price patterns during the time frame mentioned as an HVS or as a lateral. Volume (at least on my charts) isn't providing the oscillating Red and Black signature indicative of an HVS. I do see lateral movement (Note the closes of the bars), but lateral movement is not a lateral formation. I do see the whole area as one, rather large, Flat Bottom Pennant formation. This FBP does then move into an FBO breakout on increasing volume (imagine that). :)

Quote from bundlemaker:

15:15 In early part of bar price was still in lateral. My eyes were glued to the DOM and watching for a wall on the offer. At 1461.50 I saw 27/478 bid/ask, and kept watching. In a blink, the wall disappeared and I reversed to long.
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Now this is exactly how one needs to monitor.

While monitoring the market, you believed you had received a market signal for an HVS / Lateral formation. Its immaterial, at this point, that you incorrectly (or correctly based on your own charts) 'viewed' the landscape with respect to being on the 'right' side of the market. As a result of your monitoring and analysis of the Price and Volume bars, You made a decision (Lateral) which led to a conclusion (continuation).

You then looked for confirmation or invalidation of your assertion / hypothesis using any number of tools. What did you find? The wall on the Ask (which first appears to confirm your hypothesis) suddenly disappears. You reverse to the Long side because you recognize the 'wall disappearance' as either 1. Wall Movement (a game played to sucker in the dumb money) or 2. Wall Elimination (the train is leaving the station; better jump on board)

Both situations provide a change signal (based on your previous orientation (continuation to the down side) developed from your incorrect (or correct, based on your own charts) analysis of the Price and Volume Bars.

As a result, you correctly reversed not worrying about 'being right' about your correct (or incorrect as the case may be) original hypotheses.

Nicely done.

As you learned today, it does not matter if one makes an error at some point in the MADA Process. What's paramount to understanding the whole enchilada here is being able to recognize - in the NOW - what the market is telling you.

In bundlemaker's example, the market was relaying the message, "Dude, what are you on crack? Lateral formation? ROFL. Trader, please!" Fortunately, for this trade, bundlemaker did not concern himself with 'being right,' he focused only on understanding what signals the market handed out.

Again, nicely done.

- Spydertrader
 
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