Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
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When looking for volume to lead the way and confirm what is anticipated, I found the volume period circled gave me no insight or confirmation as to what to anticipate. I have come to operate under the premise that once an FTT occurs it remains in force until a sequence and/or conditions warrant a change. I realize that this sounds a bit ambiguous; but it usually is a case of you know when you know; and when I'm wrong I change. This can be frustrating at times, but that is what practice is for right 
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This is why the circled period was so troublesome. Perhaps it was because volume levels dropped off precipitously or maybe it was the many "doji" bars that littered the price that skewed the information that I found the readings inconclusive. A case in point is the 12:10 bar. I anticipate inc. black to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. My data didn't show this. In fact the 12:30 bar it is actually dec. black vol. The 12:35 to 12:55 is equally befuddling to me. When we finally get inc. black it is so much less than the volume earlier in the day that it seems primed for a reversal. In other words there doesn't seem to be much strength behind it. The amount of price increase is surprising to me. When we do get an FTT and a reversal the vol. again seems inconclusive. This continued like I said till 15:00 where I didn't so much as understand the volume patterns as much as realized that the long train was leaving the station.
I am curious if others found this period confusing. If so how did you successfully navigate it?
See chart on next page
.This is why the circled period was so troublesome. Perhaps it was because volume levels dropped off precipitously or maybe it was the many "doji" bars that littered the price that skewed the information that I found the readings inconclusive. A case in point is the 12:10 bar. I anticipate inc. black to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. My data didn't show this. In fact the 12:30 bar it is actually dec. black vol. The 12:35 to 12:55 is equally befuddling to me. When we finally get inc. black it is so much less than the volume earlier in the day that it seems primed for a reversal. In other words there doesn't seem to be much strength behind it. The amount of price increase is surprising to me. When we do get an FTT and a reversal the vol. again seems inconclusive. This continued like I said till 15:00 where I didn't so much as understand the volume patterns as much as realized that the long train was leaving the station.
I am curious if others found this period confusing. If so how did you successfully navigate it?
See chart on next page
Same experience here.
Something just clicked a few weeks ago and I haven't had a losing day since then and some very good days. Still made a few basic mistakes but that's ok as long as you learn.
Although religion is not trading I think this was truly a religious experience by Jack's definition. It just seemed to happen from one day to the next. I consciously AND subconsciously belief now that this system works and as a result I pay more attention, stick better to its rules, not to mention experience is building up. (I think this is called positive reinforcement, like a vicious circle going up but very quickly). All this leads to better results on a day to day basis and this is what is happening.
I am more patient and know when I have processed market information correctly. I don't worry when I have taken the trade because I just know it was the right thing to do. Of course in the meantime I keep on listening to the market and am ready to process new information which usually means hold.
"Once you see it you cannot decide to not see it", I recall reading here and it's true.
Currently I am trying to catagorize the different FTT's that happen. Some FTT's are more reliable than others and in this entire journal there's not much mentioned about it.
regards,
Ivo
Something just clicked a few weeks ago and I haven't had a losing day since then and some very good days. Still made a few basic mistakes but that's ok as long as you learn.
Although religion is not trading I think this was truly a religious experience by Jack's definition. It just seemed to happen from one day to the next. I consciously AND subconsciously belief now that this system works and as a result I pay more attention, stick better to its rules, not to mention experience is building up. (I think this is called positive reinforcement, like a vicious circle going up but very quickly). All this leads to better results on a day to day basis and this is what is happening.
I am more patient and know when I have processed market information correctly. I don't worry when I have taken the trade because I just know it was the right thing to do. Of course in the meantime I keep on listening to the market and am ready to process new information which usually means hold.
"Once you see it you cannot decide to not see it", I recall reading here and it's true.
Currently I am trying to catagorize the different FTT's that happen. Some FTT's are more reliable than others and in this entire journal there's not much mentioned about it.
regards,
Ivo
In that example, a bar ( actually a poorly drawn candle, it was easier to annotate) was superimposed over the hand drawn DOM and tick, to see if this is correct.
As to what a single, 5 minute bar may look like, as it goes through the sequence in that hand drawn explanation.
Thanks for clarifying that it may take place over, more than one bar.
The attached copy you supplied, is very helpful in fully understanding the drawing.
Needed confirmation as to what I see, and clarification as to what I needed to know.
Thanks Ezzy
guavaman,
Using hindsight and therefore NOC/CHG at bar closes, I agree with your non-dominate short channel and after the "candidate" FTT one would be anticipating a retrace on decreasing black volume, right? On my snippet, I have increasing black on the 12:15/12:20 bars resulting in a B2B. Note that my vol bars are a bit different from yours here.
The retrace was on decreasing black volume. And the same bar also BO'd the short channel. As PointOne noted, one would need to see increasing black (B2B) to BO. But we got that on the 12:15 bar. So, maybe this is a case where the mechanically drawn channel doesn't sync to the Gaussian. Should we fan the RTL here? Dunno. But if we did fan the RTL, the 12:15 bar BO's on increasing black.
Anyway, food for thought...
Edit: So, if I was doing the "NOC/CHG bar close drill", was the 12:10 bar close CHG or NOC? Using the Gaussian and a fanned RTL, maybe this was NOC and CHG occured on the 12:15 bar. Or was the 12:10 BO CHG? Thoughts anyone?
<img src=http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?postid=1573573>
spooz
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1573675>
- Spydertrader
- Spydertrader
For clarity, I intended my previous post to point out what topics came next in the discussion (Flaws and Other Signals for Change) - as some may find them important to how the next two Syllabus topics relate to the current Change / No Change discussion. I did not intend to stifle the current continuation vs change discussion whatsoever.
I hope the above provides the necessary clarity required with respect to my intentions.
Carry on.
- Spydertrader
I hope the above provides the necessary clarity required with respect to my intentions.
Carry on.
- Spydertrader
So, if I was doing the "NOC/CHG bar close drill", was the 12:10 bar close CHG or NOC? Using the Gaussian and a fanned RTL, maybe this was NOC and CHG occurred on the 12:15 bar. Or was the 12:10 BO CHG? Thoughts anyone?
<img src=http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?postid=1573573>
spooz [/B][/QUOTE]
That is a good question.
Starting at the 11:45 bar, there is a steep down tape till the 12:10 bar.
It is the 12:10 bar low , that is the first higher low, since 11:45.
At that point , the 12:10 bar does break the tape, although it is on low volume.
I can see, fanning out the right side of the tape, so the 12:15 bar breaks out on higher black volume.
What I think needs to be done is look at the CONTEXT of everything that is present, at this time, on this chart.
Beginning at the 12:05 bar, an ftt has formed on the red down tape.
A change in sentiment of the steep down tape ?
Next , the 12:10 bar has the first higher low since 11:45 tape started.
The 12:10 bar itself, closes at the extreme opposite end of where it opened, breaking the current tape, and suggesting a possible shift in the trend.
Finally, the 12:05 low, followed by the close of the 12:10 bar with its higher low than the previous bar, gives A possible point 3 entry on the forest level.
Along with all of this, the 12:00 bar, and the 12:05 bar both closed below the 20 sma.
The 12:10 bar opens below the 20 sma and closes well above it.
So, taking in the entire context of what was happening at this time, you might want to look at the 12:10 bar, as a point of change , even though it had low volume, there was a change from what was taking place from 11:45 to 12:05.
All in hindsight , but a part of how the entire picture can come together, to help answer what is happening at the moment.
<img src=http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?postid=1573573>
spooz [/B][/QUOTE]
That is a good question.
Starting at the 11:45 bar, there is a steep down tape till the 12:10 bar.
It is the 12:10 bar low , that is the first higher low, since 11:45.
At that point , the 12:10 bar does break the tape, although it is on low volume.
I can see, fanning out the right side of the tape, so the 12:15 bar breaks out on higher black volume.
What I think needs to be done is look at the CONTEXT of everything that is present, at this time, on this chart.
Beginning at the 12:05 bar, an ftt has formed on the red down tape.
A change in sentiment of the steep down tape ?
Next , the 12:10 bar has the first higher low since 11:45 tape started.
The 12:10 bar itself, closes at the extreme opposite end of where it opened, breaking the current tape, and suggesting a possible shift in the trend.
Finally, the 12:05 low, followed by the close of the 12:10 bar with its higher low than the previous bar, gives A possible point 3 entry on the forest level.
Along with all of this, the 12:00 bar, and the 12:05 bar both closed below the 20 sma.
The 12:10 bar opens below the 20 sma and closes well above it.
So, taking in the entire context of what was happening at this time, you might want to look at the 12:10 bar, as a point of change , even though it had low volume, there was a change from what was taking place from 11:45 to 12:05.
All in hindsight , but a part of how the entire picture can come together, to help answer what is happening at the moment.
Bob I am glad you brought this topic up. I have been trying to define what ANTICIPATION is and to differentiate it from PREDICTION, Until today, I am not sure I knew what exactly the precise definition of ANTICIPATION as we refer to it is.
One can always say he/she is anticipating but still be predicting. I am guilty of doing this at least once in the equities forum (comments about SYNL recently).
Spyder's recent comment about making a hypothesis and looking for signals either confirming or invalidating it in addition to you referring to ANTICIPATING in the NOW has probably helped me understand the difference.
This is really going to be a re-hash of what has already been said in the journal but I will try to explain as best as I could what it means to me.
While trading, a trader anticipates change (based on what level the trader is using) and looks for the dataset that signals change. If change is not signaled, the trader has continue. The important thing to realize here is the anticipation is for the current moment in time (one is not anticipating a change that is going to last a certain period of time) and the trader goes back to monitor for the next change signal.
Anticipation is not trying to figure out where one might get a pt 3 for example but being ready to take action when the pt 3 is signaled.
I feel it is sufficient to anticipate change because if change is not signaled, the other side of the boolean expression is continue.
Feel free to comment and correct if I am wrong.
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