Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

[bi9foot]

Quote from Bundlemaker:
Let me take a stab at it based on these I've read Mak say previously. The minority comment is simply the fact that the smaller side of the DOM is in control.


Quote from PointOne:

P1 could you clarify what you meant?. It seems like your two statements are contradictory.

Quote from PointOne:
Careful - at points of change the orders showing on the smaller side of the DOM are going to be wrong (not in control).

Minority is the side with the smaller size on the bid ask pair. Minority control says the price will GENERALLY move in the direction of the smaller size on the bid/ask (price moving down if the bid is smaller and up if the ask is smaller)

Aren't the orders hitting the smaller side on the DOM going to eat up the smaller supply and move price to the next level? Meaning the minority is in control.

Quote from PointOne:
When you are at a wall, the majority of orders could be hitting the wall while the minority quietly hit the smaller side. Which side is in control?

This I agree with, the smaller side (Minority) is in control.


There is always the possibility of a big order or sufficient number orders to use up all the supply on the majority side and move the price against the minority.

 

[PointOne]

Quote from bi9foot:

P1 could you clarify what you meant?. It seems like your two statements are contradictory.

No contradiction intended, I apologise if I wasn't clear. I think of the DOM as showing the limit orders of the willing buyers and willing sellers. They are the supply. *

If the Ask (supply of Longs) is smaller and there is a wall on the Bid, it stands to reason that the minority can take control by consuming the supply of Longs showing on the Ask. In doing so they put the willing sellers (the suppliers of Longs) on the wrong side - so the minority in DOM terms is wrong, whereas the market order minority is in control. I think this is what Jack means by the minority being in control.

Of course I may have got it all wrong. :eek:

*We can't see the other 2 "queues" that matter, representing the demand side - this is Mak's point. No one can see who is on the sidelines, obviously, but there are queued stops waiting to trigger which I guess the exchange and brokers can see.

 

[R/R]

Quote from bi9foot:

Bob I am glad you brought this topic up. I have been trying to define what ANTICIPATION is and to differentiate it from PREDICTION, ...snip

I spent some time yesterday reading the definitions to determine if I understood the context used here. What I learned was although "expect" is a synonym of "anticipate", there is an emphasis on taking early action implied with "anticipate". Sound familiar?

 

[TIKITRADER]

Quote from PointOne:

No contradiction intended, I apologise if I wasn't clear. I think of the DOM as showing the limit orders of the willing buyers and willing sellers. They are the supply. *

If the Ask (supply of Longs) is smaller and there is a wall on the Bid, it stands to reason that the minority can take control by consuming the supply of Longs showing on the Ask. In doing so they put the willing sellers (the suppliers of Longs) on the wrong side - so the minority in DOM terms is wrong, whereas the market order minority is in control. I think this is what Jack means by the minority being in control.

Of course I may have got it all wrong. :eek:

*We can't see the other 2 "queues" that matter, representing the demand side - this is Mak's point. No one can see who is on the sidelines, obviously, but there are queued stops waiting to trigger which I guess the exchange and brokers can see.

Drew a picture of what I think you are talking about.
Feel free to annotate over it in any way, to clarify any questions anyone has , and to correct me if I have misunderstood.

 

[guavaman]

There were some really frustrating periods today. The 10:35 to 11:40 period come to mind. However the repeated FTT to FBO's from 12:00 to 14:15 also caused significant frustration.

What I always seem to have problems with is not so much an incorrect anticipation of a developing sequence, but if the anticipated sequence / move exceeds what I thought would happen. i.e. if price moves further than I expected it to move; even though I expected the move in the first place.

The 15:40 retrace is an example of this. I expected the retrace, just not that big of a move up . If this makes any sense?

 

[ivob]

Hi Guava,

10:35 - 11:40 was very problematic for me as well. I was reversing and reversing and lost quite some points there.

Of course the thing to do was to look careful at RTL and immediately get out at fbo or sideline because of the lower volume. However, fbo's happen quickly so maybe breakeven would be the best I could do. But I guess if I could have I would have...

BTW I think this RTL needs to be fanned out in your chart. That also would have helped later on (13:45)

Volume was dropping during this 10:35 - 11:40 period and in hindsight the whole thing is just a (large range) left to right traverse on decreasing red and black volume = continuation.

After the first fbo in this period I should have sidelined because of the low volume or reversed and stick to RTL. I think this period is some kind of VDU period (it felt like that) even though volume approached 20k at times. Difficult....

I made up for all the lost points later on but you don't want to know how many points I lost during that period. This is something that needs to be solved.

15:40 (actually 15:25) was for me a clear FTT, even clearer on YM (DT formed).

regards,
Ivo

Quote from guavaman:

There were some really frustrating periods today. The 10:35 to 11:40 period come to mind. However the repeated FTT to FBO's from 12:00 to 14:15 also caused significant frustration.

What I always seem to have problems with is not so much an incorrect anticipation of a developing sequence, but if the anticipated sequence / move exceeds what I thought would happen. i.e. if price moves further than I expected it to move; even though I expected the move in the first place.

The 15:40 retrace is an example of this. I expected the retrace, just not that big of a move up . If this makes any sense?

 

[makosgu]

Quote from R/R:

I spent some time yesterday reading the definitions to determine if I understood the context used here. What I learned was although "expect" is a synonym of "anticipate", there is an emphasis on taking early action implied with "anticipate". Sound familiar?

It is a very simple concept. For example, if the weatherman tells you it is raining 50 miles to the east of you, you anticipate that rain is on it's way and note the clouds overhead. I prepare myself by pulling out my umbrella when I head for the NYC streets. If it rains, I am ready, if it doesn't rain, I am also ready. The idea is to not be caught by surprise. When you are in the zone, there are no surprises. You prepare and position yourself in such a way that you are not reacting but rather had been waiting for the event that is moving into the present. A trading example is like a bracket. Right before Bernanke screws up his statement, you bracket because the pattern is typical. You have low volume and as a result low volatility. When the volume picks up, your bracket is there to catch whichever side the breakout occurs on. Why do you bracket, because you are anticipating, BY BEING EQUIPPED/POSITIONED, for the breakout. Should the breakout never happen, you keep out of the market... The bracket was simply your preparation for what is coming into the present...

 

[8833broc]

I kept reversing this morning. Quite a few small losses per reversal. I even had problems in the evening annotating the morning action. Volume was very unsustained and prices jumpy. There were constant FTT's along the ST and LT. Only clue that I saw this evening was price was hugging the ST RTL but also at the sae time a few FTTs of the LTL.


Was anyone able to make sense of this morning at the Forest Level ?

Was this morning tradeable at the Forest Level ?

What were the Change/Continuation signals this morning ?

 

[guavaman]

Quote from 8833broc:

What were the Change/Continuation signals this morning ?

8833,

I will take a swing at this but I hope I will be swiftly corrected if I am off base. My comments about the 10:30 to 11:40 time period are made, unfortunately, in retrospect, but better late than never

The first signal for continuation to the down side is the FTT of the CO at 9:35 or if you prefer the FTT of the CO at 10:20 . From here we have decreasing red volume (which in a down channel equals lateral movement and continuation) until 11:45. After this point we have three cycles of FTT to FBO until 14:25 finally BO's to the upside.

Second indication is the FBO of the RTL at 10:40 which is repeated several times more until the :45 bar finally had enough with the games and the market finally continued down.

To repeat once again, I got too hung up in a bar to bar comparison to make any productive use of this period, but the debriefing does help illuminate the errors

 

[ericta]

Quote from ivob:

Hi Guava,

10:35 - 11:40 was very problematic for me as well. I was reversing and reversing and lost quite some points there.

Of course the thing to do was to look careful at RTL and immediately get out at fbo or sideline because of the lower volume. However, fbo's happen quickly so maybe breakeven would be the best I could do. But I guess if I could have I would have...

BTW I think this RTL needs to be fanned out in your chart. That also would have helped later on (13:45)

Volume was dropping during this 10:35 - 11:40 period and in hindsight the whole thing is just a (large range) left to right traverse on decreasing red and black volume = continuation.

After the first fbo in this period I should have sidelined because of the low volume or reversed and stick to RTL. I think this period is some kind of VDU period (it felt like that) even though volume approached 20k at times. Difficult....

I made up for all the lost points later on but you don't want to know how many points I lost during that period. This is something that needs to be solved.

15:40 (actually 15:25) was for me a clear FTT, even clearer on YM (DT formed).

regards,
Ivo

It wasn't until 11:05 that I realize the pennant, I sidelined not a second later. Because I realized 2 weeks ago, I don't have the ability / tool set to trade the slalom inside pennant, even the marginal area outside the pennant is a bit tricky for me. I want market to give me a double prv before I even think about enter.

BR.