Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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I would like to know if I am correct, in what I think a spike and two pair looks like on the 5 minute ES bars.

If I am wrong , can someone please clarify this.
I have been reading posts from Jack Hershey Trading to help understand this.
Alot of people here have done some serious ground work in the past, I find value in what they have done.
On this subject, i need some confirmation, or correction as to what I see.
Hope I have asked this without any confusion.
 

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Quote from ericta:

I just find out a way to tell whether I'm anticipating or predicting. it's 100% accurate for me.

anxious, stressed, or "YES, I knew it's going up"...

The way spyder and Jack anticipate should be stress free. tired maybe, but not emotions.

BR.
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Somewhere early in this thread, I posted something very similar. Problem is, I keep forgetting it :) It might be a REALLY good idea to print that out and tape a copy, one each, on your monitor and your forehead (staples work better on forehead than tape).
 
Not sure if I am clear on what I was asking on last post.

To be clearer, would I be correct, to view this attachment as one bar progressing through a change in its direction of price?

Remember, this is one bar, as it toggles at the tick.
Please correct me if I am wrong.
 

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Quote from bundlemaker:

Somewhere early in this thread, I posted something very similar. Problem is, I keep forgetting it :) It might be a REALLY good idea to print that out and tape a copy, one each, on your monitor and your forehead (staples work better on forehead than tape).
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whenever it kicks in ( holding breath, skip MADA, brain freeze...) I stop, step back, eat an apple ( apple, not orange, it's very important ); I'm a better trader when I'm back.
I'll ask a lot of questions when briefing: do I have the knowledge to deal with this troubled area? if not, find the way; if I can't have the answer, recognize it, sideline it next time until the light bulb lit.
 
2 learning models, each has advantage/disadvantage
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a better model?
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Quote from spooz_trader1:

river,

Since I was doing the "Continuation/Change (NOC/CHG) at Bar Close Drill", I watched the 10:35 bar BO my RTL and then fall back/close in the channel. Since the close was in the channel, my decision was NOC or Continue. Sure, price could have continued going higher but I was anticipating a retrace due to the 10:30 Gaussian peak and the overall pace of the short channel.
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spooz,

Thank you for sharing your though process for the 10:35 bar as well as the detailed screen by screen synopsis of what you saw during the replay!


Quote from PointOne:

Take-away: you cannot have a TL BO on decreasing volume.
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Quote from ivob:

Anyway, just look at the big picture. The move to RTL is just sideways on decreasing volume. No sign whatsoever there will be any change.
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PointOne and Ivo,

In the process of replying to spooz you answered the question I struggled with—both during that particular bar and during debriefing—Thank you!

-river
 
Last night, after a many year long journey, I pretty much called it quits. I had had enough, I felt I just couldn't get it. Pretty damn certain I couldn't.

Well, thanks to my guardian angel I was directed to do something. What, at this point, I don't think is terribly important.

What I learned was. Oh man was it. I've spent the last few hours trying to figure out what to say, how to describe it. So far I'm not at all satisified that my description is accurate to my experience, but I feel like I gotta try.

Anticapating has NOTHING to do with what happens next. Anticipating is a NOW process. Somehow I got the very misguided notion in my head that as a trader I needed to connect the NOW with the FUTURE. And, worse, I had no idea how to do this or what it would look like. This had provided me with a not inconsiderable amount of physical and mental pain. As I became more skilled at the individual components of the method but not seeing it come together, life became tortuous.

We, as traders are not responsible for the connection from the now to the future; that is the markets job. Let the market do it's job and you do yours.

I realize this sounds totally abstract, philosophical, and useless. I make no apologies. I know how I looked at charts yesterday afternoon and how I look at them today. I can't go back. Something in my head changed and I can't even reconstruct the process that caused me the pain. The neural path ways have be re-arranged.

I do apologize if this is off syllabus a bit, but I know from talking with various of you that we had shared a fair bit of emotion on this subject. If you can relate to my words in any way, here is my suggestion: at least while your trading, partition off that part of your brain which believes that what you're doing has something to do with figuring out what is going to happen next. The difference between prediction and anticipation is where your focus lies (lay?, never was worth a rat's ass at grammar).Is your focus on NOW (anticipation) or what's going to happen next (predictions).

Please understand that this in no way contradicts the idea of "what must come next". If it seems like a contradiction, I have great news for you: you just found what's between you and ultimate success.
 
BundleMaker,

The past 6 weeks I have had only 1 small down day and plenty of plus days. Remember I was someone that failed at this several years ago. Somedays I think I am lucky and other days I feel like I am getting it.

One thing I have been doing differently is that I draw what I expect the next few bars along with volume will look like in accordance to what I beleive/anticipate should be happening within the context of the channel and gaussian. If the anticipated bars actually happen I then wait for the anticipated INC RED/GREEN PRV and initiate a trade.

A couple of good weeks really changed my mental outlook. I am now patiently watching the market and not worried about missing trades ( which I do frequently ). When I see a setup that matches what I anticipated I have some confident that entering on the imminent volume surge will get me on the right side of the market.

I am still waiting on the market to return to a less volatile state to really test my abilities.
 
Quote from TIKITRADER:

Not sure if I am clear on what I was asking on last post.

To be clearer, would I be correct, to view this attachment as one bar progressing through a change in its direction of price?

Remember, this is one bar, as it toggles at the tick.
Please correct me if I am wrong.
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It looks like you have the right idea, keeping in mind that sequence may extend into the next 5 min bar. The example you showed was what a 5 min bar would look like "real time" during the formation.

The "look" of this bar after the sequence (on a static chart) doesn't mean every bar with this look (that closes 3 ticks or more off the extreme) went through this sequence. It may have, but don't want anyone to make the assumption that it did.

Attached is another copy of the 2 pair chart with some additional notes. It basically restates what's already there, but it might be helpful.

Regards - EZ
 

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