Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
- Status
Just came back from holidays and I'm back to learning.
I have a question about this morning’s ES change of direction. After the 3rd bar, the volume went down. I was thinking it’s a retrace (my orange channel). I was watching to see if there would be a change or continuation. At the beginning of the 6th bar there was red volume up and the price started going down (seen also on YM at 9.54). Just as I pressed SELL, price changed direction.
The question is, when and where did you notice that the direction was about to change?
PS: I just installed new IQFeed and can’t make Mak’s tool work so I’m not seeing STR/SQZ
I have a question about this morning’s ES change of direction. After the 3rd bar, the volume went down. I was thinking it’s a retrace (my orange channel). I was watching to see if there would be a change or continuation. At the beginning of the 6th bar there was red volume up and the price started going down (seen also on YM at 9.54). Just as I pressed SELL, price changed direction.
The question is, when and where did you notice that the direction was about to change?
PS: I just installed new IQFeed and can’t make Mak’s tool work so I’m not seeing STR/SQZ
Compare the attached chart snippet to your own previously posted chart. I did not se your 'carryover' channel from the previous day (red Down Channel). The first two bars of the day show increasing Price on decreasing black Volume -characteristic of a retrace of a down channel). As Price breaks through the red down tape (skinny red lines), it does so on increasing black volume (our first indication something has changed). In addition, As Price moves from point Two to Point Three (of the Green Channel) it does so on decreasing red volume (characteristic of a retrace in an up channel). Now, it is important to note that the green up channel, still represents a retrace of the entire red channel.
As to when exactly do we see a signal indicating something has changed? Do you see the FTT on bar Four?
Good trading to you.
- Spydertrader
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1463386>
I had an exhilarating "AHA" moment this afternoon.
As I watched the 13:10 bar fire down and then start to pull back, I thought to myself "Well, this could be a FTT. We are going to have increasing volume, and price has pulled back a bit. So, if this is a FTT, I expect to see decreasing black volume." The aha moment came though when I glanced over at the YM and watched that very thing play out before my eyes. A bunch of provisional beliefs - the YM leads the ES, the same sequences play out over and over, and anticipating the next moves - became firmly cemented in my mind.
If you are still struggling to see the things being discussed in the journal, don't despair. Continue to follow along and monitor the market on a regular basis. Keep working at it and at some point it will click - and when it does there's no going back.
-Au
As I watched the 13:10 bar fire down and then start to pull back, I thought to myself "Well, this could be a FTT. We are going to have increasing volume, and price has pulled back a bit. So, if this is a FTT, I expect to see decreasing black volume." The aha moment came though when I glanced over at the YM and watched that very thing play out before my eyes. A bunch of provisional beliefs - the YM leads the ES, the same sequences play out over and over, and anticipating the next moves - became firmly cemented in my mind.
If you are still struggling to see the things being discussed in the journal, don't despair. Continue to follow along and monitor the market on a regular basis. Keep working at it and at some point it will click - and when it does there's no going back.
-Au
Janis,
The NFP last Friday was released at 8:30, so you can't use it then. The Sqz/Str is useless at that time since the INDU hasn't opened yet.
It takes a few bars after the open to sync, so you would make your adjustment 3 - 4 bars into the session. Sometimes the prior days ending value is a good place to start too, as occasionally the index arb number might be way off. If you have a way to track the sum (YM - INDU) it makes it easy at a glance to see what the premium should be, and is also handy when you need to adjust.
Hope that helps - EZ
ES 10 May 07
Saw the RTL BO at 11:00 and waited for a pt 3. Missed 11:45, thinking that the L2R traverse was not finished and wanted to avoid entering on a âlimbâ. Missed 12:50 due to misplaced RTL. After the RTL BO at 13:50, took at long at 14:22 @ 03.25. exited at 15:05 @ 02.25 due to RTL BO. The L2R traverse had not finished and saw 2 more possible pt3âs but did not enter. After the RTL BO at 14:50, saw the pt 3 at 15:15 but did not take due to strong black volume on prior bar. Problem of identifying pt3âs in a timely manner continues.
Saw the RTL BO at 11:00 and waited for a pt 3. Missed 11:45, thinking that the L2R traverse was not finished and wanted to avoid entering on a âlimbâ. Missed 12:50 due to misplaced RTL. After the RTL BO at 13:50, took at long at 14:22 @ 03.25. exited at 15:05 @ 02.25 due to RTL BO. The L2R traverse had not finished and saw 2 more possible pt3âs but did not enter. After the RTL BO at 14:50, saw the pt 3 at 15:15 but did not take due to strong black volume on prior bar. Problem of identifying pt3âs in a timely manner continues.
Time to throw my hat back in the ring. 
Today's ES chart.
Warning: there are more annotations than any sane person would want to read.
Today's ES chart.
Warning: there are more annotations than any sane person would want to read.
- Status