Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Quote from Spydertrader:


As to when exactly do we see a signal indicating something has changed? Do you see the FTT on bar Four? :D

Good trading to you.

- Spydertrader


<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1463386> [/B]
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Spyder,

Bar 4 has the same low as bar 3 (even harmonic, no spike or anything on bar 4) and closed where it opened. Also volume is lower than the bar before. Furthermore the 1st two bars of the day suggested we were in a down channel. The third bar would confirm this (price moving in dominant direction, incr. red just like you would expect in a down channel).

So basically I thought the 4th bar was some kind of stall and price would continue going down. It was not until bar 6 when it became evident I was on the wrong side of the market (in since the top of bar 3). Then I reversed on bar 9 (where you also have your pt3).

Just wanted to point out how things went :-)

although I did have the same carryover channel I considered bar 6 the FTT.

regards,
Ivo
 
Ivob,

We had a gap down this morning, which produced a volatility expansion of the carryover channel. The volatility expansion gives us a heads up that a FTT is coming up soon. We then see price form a double bottom with the previous bar, and come to the conclusion that either a FTT OR a flaw is in the process of forming. Low volume relative to the previous bar is a characteristic of a flaw, and since we had volume which was close to that of the previous bar, we can eliminate the possibility of a flaw - leaving only the FTT.

Additionally, looking at the YM at that time, you will see increasing red volume, followed by decreasing black volume - also indicative of a FTT.

HTH

-Au
 
Today's chart....

My goods and bads:

Good:
- I believe I can draw channels correctly;
- I believe I cand draw the gaussians correctly and match them with channels, even if in RT I made some mistakes. Sometimes I think it should be one thing and happens another
- I can reasonably spot FFTs and when missed I look for pnt3

Bad:

- Bad Exit from Trades. Many 0.25 trades even when winning >1 pnts
- I fail to interpret 'change' signals when on trade; "Sufficient data sets" is not well understood I think;
- STR/SQU is speaking chinese... I don't have dictionary yet; sometimes I see <-3 and price go up, sometimes I see >2 and price go down. I had to check 2 times if I hadn't entered the symbols in inverse order. I tryed also to look only in moments of high volatility for a 'change' signal.. nothing yet...

Today I made 10 trades; overall: +1.25; 7Wins and 3losses

Today's range: 16.5 points!! :(

(Sorry for thinking out loud)

Regards,
 

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Quote from EstebanUno:

Time to throw my hat back in the ring. :)

Today's ES chart.

Warning: there are more annotations than any sane person would want to read.
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Hi,

Nice chart but make sure channels "match the gaussians". This means (imo) that the RTL of up channels should touch the bottom of the bars with black volume peaks and the RTL of down channels should touch the top of the bars with red volume because that's where the selling came in.

For example your first dotted grey downchannel. You use top of bar 2 + top of bar 8 for the RTL. Bar 2 is okay (at the top the red volume came in) but bar 8 was buying, not selling. It's black volume.

It's better to draw a tape down using top of bar 2 and 3. The breaking of this tape would have been a clue that could have got you in a long position (sooner). So imo this channel should be much steeper.

regards,
Ivo
 
Quote from Aurum:

Ivob,

We had a gap down this morning, which produced a volatility expansion of the carryover channel. The volatility expansion gives us a heads up that a FTT is coming up soon. We then see price form a double bottom with the previous bar, and come to the conclusion that either a FTT OR a flaw is in the process of forming. Low volume relative to the previous bar is a characteristic of a flaw, and since we had volume which was close to that of the previous bar, we can eliminate the possibility of a flaw - leaving only the FTT.

Additionally, looking at the YM at that time, you will see increasing red volume, followed by decreasing black volume - also indicative of a FTT.

HTH

-Au
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Mmm. I agree about the vol expansion. the double bottom told me: possible flaw. We had lower volume than the previous bar (I would say about 70-80% of the previous bar). This also told me: flaw. Price closed where it opened and also this told me: flaw.

I DO agree however with YM giving more clues. 9:40 bar was completely red. at 9:44 another red going two ticks lower on lower volume and at 9:48 a lot of red but price failed to go lower and if it cannot go lower on all this volume it can only go higher. This corresponds BTW with the FTT 9:45 bar on ES.

I was only seeing a possible FTT and for the rest indications it would go down more and did not want to decide on this single thing that was not very clear to me. Had I looked better at YM then it would have been more obvious although also YM gave indications of moving laterally because there was decreasing black as well as decreasing red.

regards,
Ivo
 
Quote from ivob:

Mmm. I agree about the vol expansion. the double bottom told me: possible flaw. We had lower volume than the previous bar (I would say about 70-80% of the previous bar). This also told me: flaw. Price closed where it opened and also this told me: flaw.
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1. I recommend reviewing some charts. Double Bottom (2 consecutive bars) in a down trend should indicate an FTT (especially when it occurs after Peak Volume levels).

2. Decreasing non- dominant Volume marks a retrace. Significantly disparate Volume compared to the previous bar normally indicate flaws.

3. When Bar 4 forms its double bottom, we have no idea where Price will close, nor do we need to know.

The double bottom FTT (in a down channel) or the double top FTT (in an up channel) remain the easiest of all FTT's to spot in real time. Viewing these Price formations as 'flaws' adds an unnecessary level of difficulty.

Good trading to you all.

- Spydertrader
 
A tip for Qchart users: if a 'cleaner' window for a chart or the STR/SQZ is desired, try right click ->Format->uncheck 'Daily Snapshot Bar' when the cursor is placed in the chart or window.

This helped me see the extreme values of STR/SQZ yesterday during the FOMC annoucement.

-Mike
 
My only real confusion today occured in the first up channel we had (9:45, 9:55, 10:10, the 3 pts). my question has to do with the way it went higher. The first high, 9:55 was on the greatest volume. I suspect we go higher and we do a few bars later. The second new high of the channel, 10:15, is on less volume that the first high. This gets me thinking that the channel is weakening. Theoretically, for a channel to remain strong, new highs should be on increasing volume. Anyways, we sell of slightly from here before taking out another new high. The confusing part for me is that this new high is on less volume that the 9:55 bar. So over the course of the channel, new highs are still be made on lower volume. For some reason I thought that, because this 10:40 high was made on greater volume than the 10:15 highs that perhaps the channel had regained strength again. So after we went lower and the 11:00 bar BO'ed on dec vol, I was convinced we were searching for a new pt 3 of the up channel. In retrospect, I can see that this didnt work out.

My question is, once the 10:40 bar fully forms and I see its vol is still less than the 9:55 vol, should I still be seeing this as weak and avoiding looking to buy a new pt 3?
 
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