Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

[Pr0crast]

Quote from No. 6:

BS!

your conclusions depend on your data feed and software. i got a "green" 11:00 am 5 min bar and a higher high @11:05! "11:05" opens a tick above "11:00'. you are well aware aren't you that these bar formations/time are arbitrary and subject to variations of data and software processing, aren't you??? :eek:

Hypostomus, mind posting a chart so we can see what you are talking about?

If this was so arbitrary a procedure I think you would have to agree that someone here, out of the many people that have posted charts for friday, would have also found the FTTs you mentioned. Alas, this is not the case.

Best of luck.

 

[nkhoi]

Quote from Spydertrader:

Price immediately heads lower showing increasing red volume. Since one needed to see decreasing black volume for one to have an FTT in a down channel..[/B]

Do you mean? Since one needed to see decreasing black volume then increasing black volume for one to have an FTT in a down channel.

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from No. 6:

BS!

Such pleasantries on this festive day.

Quote from No. 6:

your conclusions depend on your data feed and software.

Didn't you ask me about my chart? If you have questions about your chart, best to post it, so I do not have to read your mind. Since you have no doubt read through the entire thread, you easily notice that others with questions post their charts in the interest of clarity. Kindly post your entire chart, so that we might see your full annotations in an effort to better assist you.

Quote from No. 6:

i got a "green" 11:00 am 5 min bar and a higher high @11:05!

Do you see something different on my chart? I don't (other than black bars for green one's).

Quote from No. 6:

"11:05" opens a tick above "11:00'.

I am describing the chart snip I posted. I did not mean to infer a one tic difference resulted in a decision making process.

Quote from No. 6:

"you are well aware aren't you that these bar formations/time are arbitrary and subject to variations of data and software processing, aren't you??? :eek:

Of course, but then again you asked about my chart, and I believe I accurately described my view of the market at that time. If you viewed things differently, then it simply means you had a different view than I. it doesn't mean one view represents a correct or incorrect view when compared to another.

- Spydertrader

 

[Pr0crast]

Quote from nkhoi:

Do you mean? Since one needed to see decreasing black volume then increasing black volume for one to have an FTT in a down channel.

Don't need to have the decreasing black followed by increasing black. FTTs don't always break out, sometimes they FBO. What he is saying essentially is that an FTT occurs at the top of a gaussian. There wasn't enough gas left to push it to the LTL before it began its retrace. That's all an FTT is.

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from nkhoi:

Do you mean? Since one needed to see decreasing black volume then increasing black volume for one to have an FTT in a down channel.

Not all FTT's become breakouts. Some turn into FBO's

Decreasing black to increasing black is a B2B where one has a breakout. Until Price breaks through the right trend line, one would continue to see decreasing (in this case) black volume. FTT to FBO would show decreasing black. FTT to BO would have decreasing black then increasing black - as Price breaks the Right Trend line. In the example above, since Price is no where near the Right Trend line, we would expect to see decreasing level of black volume (retrace). We didn't. Instead we viewed increasing red volume (continuation down).

See the attached chart for R2R. Note the decreasing then increasing as price Breaks out. Note also, we only have decreasing red when price remains within the channel.

- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1400862>

 

[mephistoII]

Quote from No. 6:



.... you are well aware aren't you that these bar formations/time are arbitrary and subject to variations of data and software processing, aren't you??? :eek:

This does raise a very valid point, and is an area which has provided me with continuing frustrations during this journey. I have been tempted to question (complain? ) this conundrum on various occasions. At the end of each day, I am hopeful to find a very close match on my chart when comparing against Spyder's - especially in the area of gaussian interpretation, which I rely on quite heavily realtime. But the reality is that there are many instances of completely different looking formations appearing on my chart. For the record, I currently use a combination of IB feed/ Ensign. However, it eventually boils down to the fact that we each can only trade what we see before our own eyes.

And perhaps, while on the forest level, my areas of focus are a bit misplaced. If this is the case, I would appreciate hearing the same. ( A short while back, Mak made a comment that kinda minimized the importance of gaussians - it seemed almost blasphemous to me, considering my areas of concentration )

 

[Pr0crast]

Quote from mephistoII:

This does raise a very valid point, and is an area which has provided me with continuing frustrations during this journey. I have been tempted to question (complain? ) this conundrum on various occasions. At the end of each day, I am hopeful to find a very close match on my chart when comparing against Spyder's - especially in the area of gaussian interpretation, which I rely on quite heavily realtime. But the reality is that there are many instances of completely different looking formations appearing on my chart. For the record, I currently use a combination of IB feed/ Ensign. However, it eventually boils down to the fact that we each can only trade what we see before our own eyes.

And perhaps, while on the forest level, my areas of focus are a bit misplaced. If this is the case, I would appreciate hearing the same. ( A short while back, Mak made a comment that kinda minimized the importance of gaussians - it seemed almost blasphemous to me, considering my areas of concentration )

Mephisto,

While on the forest level FTTs are not supposed to be actionable, but if you choose to add them to your decision making progress might I suggest that you tighten your definition a little bit? For instance, while on the forest level I tend to only consider something an FTT if it occurred during a dominant traverse (increasing X volume) and between retraces (decreasing Y volume). So if it goes up 2 ticks and comes back down briefly I just consider that to be part of a retrace, not part of a dominant traverse (it might have been a traverse at a lower fractal, but 5 min gaussians do not support it). I am sitting back in my chair with my feet up, not worrying about whether or not 2 ticks constitutes an FTT. Forest trading is not meant to be that stressful. Later, once I'm into the trees and the leaves, I will adopt Spyder's looser definition because it will become necessary. This way I don't get caught up on FTTs of tapes within tapes within channels, and data discrepancies do not affect anything.

 

[nkhoi]

wow! learn something new (for me) to day, thank you both. Even detractor help out sometimes but I don't think it is hypo, this look like more aggressive species.

 

[Spydertrader]

For those having difficulty with Anticipation vs Prediction, please review this post. Continuation vs change are not tied to 'odds of success' in the future. Reaching the correct conclusion by monitoring sufficient (and correct) data sets one 'permits one to know what comes next.

- Spydertrader

 

[mephistoII]

Hi PrOcrast - thank you for your reply. I believe I realized early on that entering the mkt on THE FTT bar, specifically, was akin to entering on a coin flip, at least at our level and using the tools currently at our disposal. I will also add that it naturally appealed to me, as I've always been a die-hard countertrend/divergence/ top and bottom picker (and believe me when I say, I have died hard many times - heheh)

Perhaps I failed to adequately express the point I was trying to get across: we are all students here, and as such, I in particular attempt to emulate the actions of my teachers. When at the EOD, the charts do not match up, it seems to only exacerbate any frustrations already present in the learning process. But, again, I can appreciate it's simply one of those things we gotta live with.

Happy St. Patty's day, all ...