Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Quote from Spydertrader:

03-16-2006 ES Chart

- Spydertrader
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why didn't you identify a FTT @11:05 or @11:25 and reverse your short positions?

wasn't a clear FTT evident @these levels?

where did you exit your short??
 
Quote from No. 6:

why didn't you identify a FTT @11:05 or @11:25 and reverse your short positions?
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Neither of those bars represent FTT's

Quote from No. 6:

wasn't a clear FTT evident @these levels?
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Note the Yellow Highlighted Area (1) on the attached chart. The 11:00 Bar opens and then heads lower creating a volatility expansion (Orange Arrow). At its low, Price reverses and heads higher (Green Arrow). Closing at the high of 11:00 and then opening at the same level on the 11:05 bar, price continues higher (Black Arrow) until reaching its high of the 11:05 bar where Price then heads lower (Red Arrow) and closes at the low of the 11:05 Bar. At 11:10 AM, Price opens, one tic higher than the close of the 11:05 bar. At this point, even if one considered the 11:05 bar an FTT (at the Open of the 11:10 bar), Volume does not confirm it. Price immediately heads lower showing increasing red volume. Since one needed to see decreasing black volume for one to have an FTT in a down channel, we cannot have an FTT at 11:05. The 11:05 bar represents nothing more than a failed Left to Right (LTR) Traverse.

At 11:25, One could have very easily mistaken this Price Action for an FTT. However, in reality what we see here is a flaw (Specifically, a Dip). Note the vastly lower volume level at 11:20 compared to the 11:15 bar. When Price moves to the 11:25 bar, we see continuation to the down side until Price reaches its low. One could have chosen to view the 11:25 bar as an FTT at this point (instead of seeing it as a Dip). If so, one would then need to see decreasing black volume with the 11:30 Bar. Since we see increasing red volume at the 11:30 bar on a PRV basis, even if you did see 11:25 as an FTT (and not part of the Dip Flaw), then you'd know the market signaled continuation down compared to change.

Edit: In other words, if you view the 11:25 bar as an FTT, then 11:30 becomes an FBO.

Quote from No. 6:

where did you exit your short??
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Please review my posts with respect to trading on the 'Forest Level Resolution' within this thread.

- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1400802>
 

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Good explanation! Was there anything on the YM at this time that you found helpful in seeing this develop in addition to what you've described on the ES?


Quote from Spydertrader:

Neither of those bars represent FTT's



Note the Yellow Highlighted Area (1) on the attached chart. The 11:00 Bar opens and then heads lower creating a volatility expansion (Orange Arrow). At its low, Price reverses and heads higher (Green Arrow). Closing at the high of 11:00 and then opening at the same level on the 11:05 bar, price continues higher (Black Arrow) until reaching its high of the 11:05 bar where Price then heads lower (Red Arrow) and closes at the low of the 11:05 Bar. At 11:10 AM, Price opens, one tic higher than the close of the 11:05 bar. At this point, even if one considered the 11:05 bar an FTT (at the Open of the 11:10 bar), Volume does not confirm it. Price immediately heads lower showing increasing red volume. Since one needed to see decreasing black volume for one to have an FTT in a down channel, we cannot have an FTT at 11:05. The 11:05 bar represents nothing more than a failed Left to Right (LTR) Traverse.

At 11:25, One could have very easily mistaken this Price Action for an FTT. However, in reality what we see here is a flaw (Specifically, a Dip). Note the vastly lower volume level at 11:20 compared to the 11:15 bar. When Price moves to the 11:25 bar, we see continuation to the down side until Price reaches its low. One could have chosen to view the 11:25 bar as an FTT at this point (instead of seeing it as a Dip). If so, one would then need to see decreasing black volume with the 11:30 Bar. Since we see increasing red volume at the 11:30 bar on a PRV basis, even if you did see 11:25 as an FTT (and not part of the Dip Flaw), then you'd know the market signaled continuation down compared to change.

Edit: In other words, if you view the 11:25 bar as an FTT, then 11:30 becomes an FBO.



Please review my posts with respect to trading on the 'Forest Level Resolution' within this thread.

- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1400802>
More...
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

Neither of those bars represent FTT's



Note the Yellow Highlighted Area (1) on the attached chart. The 11:00 Bar opens and then heads lower creating a volatility expansion (Orange Arrow). At its low, Price reverses and heads higher (Green Arrow). Closing at the high of 11:00 and then opening at the same level on the 11:05 bar, price continues higher (Black Arrow) until reaching its high of the 11:05 bar where Price then heads lower (Red Arrow) and closes at the low of the 11:05 Bar. At 11:10 AM, Price opens, one tic higher than the close of the 11:05 bar. At this point, even if one considered the 11:05 bar an FTT (at the Open of the 11:10 bar), Volume does not confirm it. Price immediately heads lower showing increasing red volume. Since one needed to see decreasing black volume for one to have an FTT in a down channel, we cannot have an FTT at 11:05. The 11:05 bar represents nothing more than a failed Left to Right (LTR) Traverse.

At 11:25, One could have very easily mistaken this Price Action for an FTT. However, in reality what we see here is a flaw (Specifically, a Dip). Note the vastly lower volume level at 11:20 compared to the 11:15 bar. When Price moves to the 11:25 bar, we see continuation to the down side until Price reaches its low. One could have chosen to view the 11:25 bar as an FTT at this point (instead of seeing it as a Dip). If so, one would then need to see decreasing black volume with the 11:30 Bar. Since we see increasing red volume at the 11:30 bar on a PRV basis, even if you did see 11:25 as an FTT (and not part of the Dip Flaw), then you'd know the market signaled continuation down compared to change.

Edit: In other words, if you view the 11:25 bar as an FTT, then 11:30 becomes an FBO.



Please review my posts with respect to trading on the 'Forest Level Resolution' within this thread.

- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1400802>
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BS!

your conclusions depend on your data feed and software. i got a "green" 11:00 am 5 min bar and a higher high @11:05! "11:05" opens a tick above "11:00'. you are well aware aren't you that these bar formations/time are arbitrary and subject to variations of data and software processing, aren't you??? :eek:
 
Quote from Steve Tvardek:

Good explanation! Was there anything on the YM at this time that you found helpful in seeing this develop in addition to what you've described on the ES?
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On finer resolution levels (limb, leaf or bug) the YM did signaled change. However, on the higher resolution levels, the YM signaled continuation. Remember, 5 bars on the YM gives us 2 ES bars. In addition, throughout the entire sequence described in my previous post, YM Price maintained its position within the down channel.

- Spydertrader
 
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