I had similar difficulties at the time. I had pt.3 at the same time as dkm, but then instead of continue I saw price stop and stall, so I figured it was a flaw of some sort and I should hold. But the fourth black bar has PRV+ so I thought I must be wrong and reversed. At the next bar I realized I should not have reversed.
Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
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Quote from dkm:
This highlights an area that I am struggling with at present, namely, how to distinguish between the point 3 of a traverse and the point 3 of wider channels. Sometimes pt 3 is on what appears to be a traverse (e.g. Spyder chart, 11:55 bar, orange channel) and at other times a traverse point 3 such as 14:25 is ignored.
In an effort to stay at the forest level, I have tried to avoid using point 3 of what I suspect to be a traverse but it is frequently difficult to distinguish between a wide traverse and a narrow channel.
This is a HUGE problem for me as well.
John
Many of the charts posted over the last 24 hours missed what I have marked as the Blue Channel on the attached chart snippet. Instead, the charts have only the thinner up and down channels marked by the Green and Pink Arrows on the the attached chart snippet. Individuals who failed to 'see' the Blue Channel are ignoring the 'fractal' nature of channels - where channels form channels which form channels. In my post (several days ago) where I discussed determining the 'size' of the forest, I discussed using Gaussians as a guide for determining 'Forest Size. Even if one considers the Green Up Channel as a Point Three Channel, The FTT which forms (Yellow Highlight) creates a Point Three of a larger down channel (Red Lines) In this (Red) 'Larger Forest' Context, Red Volume is dominant. In the Blue Channel sized Forest, Black Volume dominates. How do we determine which Forest to watch? We use the Gaussians as our guide. After the FTT in the Pink Down Channel, Price begins to move higher on decreasing black volume. Such a phenomenon occurs only in a down channel. Decreasing Black Volume in an Up channels cause lateral price movement. Last week, we had two days with similar price movement (left to right traverse). Another poster commented on how the first day fooled him, but not the second. When one sees such price behavior, one must consider the possibility of a down channel. When price moves higher creating the second Blue Channel FTT, connecting the FTT's then illuminates the correct size of the Current Forest. The errors in direction result simply from a failure to 'see' the size of the Forest in which one operates. By operating in a smaller Forest, you often miss the 'bigger picture.'
- Spydertrader
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1385469>
- Spydertrader
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1385469>
I am honing in, my new found skill set seems to be for real. As I get more screen time, I am seeing very specific sequences to ask about...
Today, on at least two occasions, the following sequence happened:
Got forest level FTT > price moved away from FTT (down) > point 2 formed > retrace on lighter volume formed > was looking for point 3.....
then all of a sudden big surge of volume, and by the time PRV was showing the surge price was at or past entry point.
QUESTION: Is this indicative of a) incorrect monitoring b) it's what you get without the finer tools and I should be happy c) something I haven't considered.
Today, on at least two occasions, the following sequence happened:
Got forest level FTT > price moved away from FTT (down) > point 2 formed > retrace on lighter volume formed > was looking for point 3.....
then all of a sudden big surge of volume, and by the time PRV was showing the surge price was at or past entry point.
QUESTION: Is this indicative of a) incorrect monitoring b) it's what you get without the finer tools and I should be happy c) something I haven't considered.
Answer: B
Finer Tools (Specifically STR / SQU on fast reversals) provide superior 'advance warnings' than do Coarse Level tools.
- Spydertrader
Today's findings..
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