Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

[PointOne]

Today's Nikkei.

The 08:35 bar could have been tricky (FTT -> FBO) but I'm learning to wait just a little longer to see confirmation of change - no rush with moves like these. Point 3 occurred roughly where I thought it might (again I was a little early and waiting would have been fine there too). The price at the lunch break close was exactly on the carryover TL.

 

[palinuro]

Quote from Pr0crast:

Sorry, I don't have the link handy-- but I included it in the February compilation, which can be downloaded here:

download

thanks,
I'd already downloaded the compilation, but hadn't gone through it yet. Will do!

 

[Pr0crast]

Quote from palinuro:

Spyder,

how do you know at the time that bars like 11:05 and 12:55 are not FTTs, while bars 11:15 and 13:05 are?

And if one has made that mistake, how does one recognize the mistake and correct it before price comes back to or even beyond the decision point?

thanks,
palinuro

Your FTT question seems flawed to me. 11:05 and 12:55 on my chart do look like FTTs. They attempted to traverse and failed. Sometimes there will be multiple attempts at the LTL. How will you know that it is the final attempt? You won't. Sometimes it is much more obvious thanks to clues from the gaussians and the YM etc, and sometimes it isn't so obvious. In those cases you might develop a hunch over time, with a lot of practice, but we aren't predicting-- we are just anticipating, and acting on the NOW and then awaiting confirmation.

As for how to correct your mistake without losing money... I would guess a LOT of practice

I hope that clarifies things a little bit.

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from palinuro:

how do you know at the time that bars like 11:05 and 12:55 are not FTTs, while bars 11:15 and 13:05 are? And if one has made that mistake, how does one recognize the mistake and correct it before price comes back to or even beyond the decision point?

After an FTT, you should see decreasing non-dominant volume as price retraces back to the right side trend line. If you start to see dominant volume, then you know you have a flaw. In addition, note the differences in volume levels when one has an FTT and when one has a flaw. Also, watch the YM for changes which provide an advance warning for changes on the ES. As we learn additional tools, monitoring various data sets will provide the answers you seek. For now, try monitoring things from the Forest Level until you can recognize the differences on the FTT Level.

- Spydertrader

 

[ivob]

Quote from Spydertrader:

After an FTT, you should see decreasing non-dominant volume as price retraces back to the right side trend line. If you start to see dominant volume, then you know you have a flaw. In addition, note the differences in volume levels when one has an FTT and when one has a flaw. Also, watch the YM for changes which provide an advance warning for changes on the ES. As we learn additional tools, monitoring various data sets will provide the answers you seek. For now, try monitoring things from the Forest Level until you can recognize the differences on the FTT Level.

- Spydertrader

Hello,

I have a question related to this. Pls see the attached charts.

There's an FTT on ES. We see non dominant volume as price retraces back to the right side trend line. It breaks thru quite simply without much resistance. Then when price goes up again we start to look for a pt3, short entry. However, price continues its way up and the original channel becomes wider.

In this case, how and when do you know that looking for a pt3 and a short entry is not the way to go. Is it the gaussian on YM at 10:40 indicating change?

EDIT: I see I got my channel wrong. I was just drawing the optional steeper channel and not the up channel going thru bar one and bar four. I guess that answers part of the question.

regards,
Ivo

 

[FilterTip]

Trying to make a better job of my channels.
Whilst keeping the taping to a minimum.

The red channel looks ok, confirmed by the R2R vol, if I've identified that properly.

The Yellow channels are previous carry over.

I'm not sure of the pink. i can see how price respects the red except for the BO of red LTL.
It's only the dom tape that shows me an FTT just after the BO before price moves back nto red channel.

The red Vol Exp did not help spot this.

Eventually drew in the green channel (2nd) with an FTT of the red LTL,

Price is breaking the red RTL but on light vol, so see if we get an FTT of the pink/green, if I've annoted the pink correctly ?

welcome your comments

Thx

FilterTip

 

[KK70]

Spydertrader,
How would you diagnose the pale blue area in your chart (between 14:15-15:00)?

In real time, I annotated an FTT @ 14:30 and reversed to long. The big black volume bar at 14:45 followed by two progressively declining red volume bars indicated that my long assessment was correct thus far. Suddenly at 15:00, there was a big red volume bar which accompanied a down spike in price.

My questions are:
1. At what stage should I have realised that we were still in a down channel that began with the FTT at 14:05 and that the 14:45 high point was actually a point 3 for this down channel?
2. At what stage should I have realised that the up channel I had drawn beginning at 14:30 was actually a retracement within the larger down channel that began at 14:05? And then what would have been the course of action -- reverse to short at the close of the 15:00 bar?

I ask these questions because (at least to me) volume gave every indication that the up move from 14:30 was the new dominant trend.

Thanks!

 

[FilterTip]

PS to previous post.

I think my definitions are off.

I should be terming the coloured "channels" as forest, however big or small , and the grey as channels..?

I'll have to select yet another colour for tapes..

??

thx
filterTip

 

[Mr_Black]

This is My chart from yesterday....Gaussians are not from Forest point of view ....But When 1,2,3 channel is broken they are right on the money and some times acting before the price...this is my observation so far....from day to day I like this method more and more because It makes me thinking ...and looking for answers...
Thank you.....

 

[dkm]

Quote from KK70:

Spydertrader,
How would you diagnose the pale blue area in your chart (between 14:15-15:00)?

In real time, I annotated an FTT @ 14:30 and reversed to long. The big black volume bar at 14:45 followed by two progressively declining red volume bars indicated that my long assessment was correct thus far. Suddenly at 15:00, there was a big red volume bar which accompanied a down spike in price.

I saw this exactly the same way. Having annotated the FTT at 14:30, I was looking for my pt 2, which I assumed was the high of 14:45 with the b2b. The retrace with reducing volume at 14:50 and 14:55 had me looking for a pt 3 long and as a consequence I completely missed the point 3 short.

This highlights an area that I am struggling with at present, namely, how to distinguish between the point 3 of a traverse and the point 3 of wider channels. Sometimes pt 3 is on what appears to be a traverse (e.g. Spyder chart, 11:55 bar, orange channel) and at other times a traverse point 3 such as 14:25 is ignored.

In an effort to stay at the forest level, I have tried to avoid using point 3 of what I suspect to be a traverse but it is frequently difficult to distinguish between a wide traverse and a narrow channel.