Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
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Spydertrader.
Thx for your reply, appologies for you having to repeat things, as you say this was posted earlier in the thread, but grateful for the further explination.
It is said that this methodology works on all markets on all time frames given addiquate volatility. Most of my trading is on the DAX, but I am thinking that such a thinly traded instrument is causing the WTF's for me.
In an effort to get my screwed up head around the gaussians, so that the proper foundations are set in place as we move through the sylabus, I will try to spend more time on the ES.
(I'd still really like to have a look at the PRV tool, although still no joy with Esignal )
Appreciate how you just keep reminding those of us that need it, that market action must be seen in the right context, ie Forest.
It's as hard for me to unlearn the stuff of many years as it is to learn whats new hear.
Many Thx
PS..Refering to your post with the "This Bar".
Is it correct then to say that we would only assess seeing a CHANGE when price looks to or is breaking the RTL of the Orange channel. ?
FilterTip
"every day I wake up and realize I know nothing and then I smile "
Any Market, Any timeframe - provided sufficient Liquidity exists.
If one is learning to trade on a 'Forest Level' Resolution, yes.
- Spydertrader
I just wanted to add, for me this is all akin to when you use a telescope, there is a period of zooming in too far and zooming out too far until you get the picture in focus.
I find myself with moments of clarity and then I lose the plot and kind of too and fro over the same stuff, but each time the picture is easier to focus on..
FilterTip
I find myself with moments of clarity and then I lose the plot and kind of too and fro over the same stuff, but each time the picture is easier to focus on..
FilterTip
Thx, well the DAX certainly moves around, !
I've been getting the channels although not large enough forest view at times. the vol I still find difficult.
I made a post re: my DAX chart previously.
I don't see how the increase black vol around the price activity within the yellow square is not a continuation of the up move from the green channel going into the yellow square.
I don't see how to decerne that the situation has gone to a R2R prior to the down move as price moves out of the yellow square.
If anything red volume is reduceing as price falls.
I know it's on the DAx but would be grateful for your comments..
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Also Daxing...
Had some WTF' s??.
I've highlighted my chart, yellow square.
Even in hind sight I, not sure how I would annotate this.
There is a 40 point range of whipsaw.
I'd be grateful some help in how to interpret this.
Especially the volume,
Large black vol on large spread bar ..(A) (even though price had just broken green RTL and I'm looking for a point 1.2.3 channel)
Following this is red bar on high vol that barely pushes up ( 10 points) and closes on its low. (B) It's high being = high to bar (Y).
I'm expecting a move down ( FTT ?) but instead we get another push up (20 points) on high vol. (c)
It looks like an FTT as it fails to traverse to the green Vol Exp line,
but the red bar (D) has lower vol and I basically couldn't keep up with the action.
Equally confused as to how to interpret vol on bars intra bar as they can change from red to black very quickly..
Bar (E) is a good example.
After increasing red vol after FTT , price reverses on bar E but AFTER price had dropped again to same low on vol THAT WAS RED AT THE TIME..
Price moves switfly up however but vol ends up being lower.
The rest is as confussing to me..price is whipsawing up and down and vol is changing red to black mid bar and back again at times..
How do we deal with this..?
Best to all
FilterTIp
Attachment: dax 5min 03.03.07.png 4.png
This has been downloaded 49 time(s).
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You misquoted, its liquidity not volatility.
Nothing in the history of the planet has ever been as deep and liquid as the ES. It is just incredible. Look up the volume numbers from its inception. Long may it continue.
However, the DAX is also sufficiently liquid and deep for us but I don't know how the very large players can operate without big slippage there. (Often showing 20 or less lots at the top of the DOM). I'm happy for anyone to enlighten me.
The DAX does appear to jump around a bit but P, V and ftt / FTT monitoring work just the same - there are few true WTF!s. The DAX is a large contract relative to the ES (as I alluded to in a recent post above) and this might be freaking you out. [If you want to see illiquid look at the Sydney contract. FTTs work on that one too no problem, but you have to set alarms to wake you up.]
Thx PointOne.
Yes I've already been highlighted to Liquidity, my mistake typing volatility.
On Friday there were some larger numbers on the DOM below the bid and above the ask. A few 200's and 300's, which seemed to push price away rather than draw it towards it (some other threads discussing about Accumalitive Vol) and I agree the channelling applies, which I was getting the hang of, but as you say, there is often lite vol moving price around quite rapidly.
It's not so much freaking me out, I am trading it, it's more the lack of knowledge as to why things are happening at times.
I think you mentioned "fanning" previously. I'm seeing some largish (10- 30 points) swings that kind of wave back ond forth over the same price range, is this what you refer to.?
That I find quite nervouse, when in a trade, I don't see it coming and asside from an automatic mental exit at which point I'm seeing price just wave back to where I entered, and this is quite fast, over a few minutes . It's still, to a degree, the wrong mentality regards this methodology as I am reacting in an enter exit mentality, which as i understand it from Mr Hersheys posts elsewhere is what he has been trying to educate traders about.
as I mentioned in previous post, i am trying to unlearn as well..
FilterTip
Note the attached DAX Chart.
1. You need to do a much better job with annotation. If you cannot properly place channels into your charts, how can you expect to correctly differentiate between continuation and change? By example, note your bright green up channel (coming in from the left of the yellow box. Check your chart, and see if your Point Three is correct. It isn't. It should be on the next bar. How does that change the landscape?
2. You failed to place the light blue channel into you own chart. It's a Point Three Down Channel. Your chart has a 'tape' channel - ignoring the previous high bar. Had you drawn in this down channel, note how price in your 'problem bar' creates an FTT (circled red).
3. Your 'problem bar' in hindsight doesn't tell you the entire tale of the day. In real time, things looked quite different, so we have to describe this bar as if it were in real time - now.
As Price approaches your right trend line, we see decreasing red volume (as expected) while price 'retraces' the 'Forest.' We don't see increasing red volume here when Price breaks the light green trend line (a clue you don't have the Forest drawn correctly [see above] telling you your 'channels' are off.) We then see a flaw (stall) arrive on the scene. No worries as price remains within our Point Three Down Channel (See why you have to draw the channels correctly?) The next bar (The 'Problem Bar'), we do see (on a PRV basis) increasing volume, and in the beginning, it is red. Again, we expect this as price breaks our channel (our correctly drawn in up channel - not on my chart). As Price approaches the left trend line of the down channel, it stops and starts to head higher. An FTT (Point One)! A signal for change. Here within our problem Gaussian, as Price traverses the down channel, we start to see a change take place Intra-Bar. First, we have decreasing black volume (close your eyes and visualize the change - or check a 1 minute chart to verify), then increasing black volume appears as Price breaks the RTL of the down channel. Next, we have a flaw show up again (stall) followed by our 'top' (Point Two). So in real-time had you drawn in your channels correctly, you'd have seen an FTT and known the market had signaled change.
We see the same thing after Point Two (Yellow), Another Point Three Down channel (Peach) moves into an FTT creating our Point Three. As expected, we see increasing black volume as Price moves higher into the Forest.
5. You do a Good Job annotating your last down channel on this snip. Note how Price maintains its position within this smaller Forest - showing decreasing red volume right up until Price Breaches the RTL of our WIDE up channel.
Hopefully, my Intra-Bar Narration of your 'Problem bar' provided some clarity. I recommend practicing your annotations and making sure you correctly add the proper trend lines to your charts. Without the correct trend lines, you miss so much of the story.
- Spydertrader
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