Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

[PointOne]

Quote from FilterTip:

as I mentioned in previous post, i am trying to unlearn as well..

FilterTip

Please read the following from Inner Skiing by W. Timothy Gallwey and Robert Kriegel, I find it useful:

Few skiers want to spend more time than necessary learning something new. Having only a limited time on the mountain, they sometimes become impatient when awareness techniques are used in an Inner Skiing lesson to help them develop a new skill. Often they feel that they are wasting their time if they are not getting a tip or technical correction, since this is the way they have been taught in the past, and believe that it is the most direct route to immediate improvement.

The truth is that the more awareness you can bring to the practice of a new skill, the more easily, quickly, and thoroughly you will learn it. Our experience with Inner Skiing has shown that by focusing attention on each step the body discovers the best way of executing it.

Often skiers reach a plateau at a certain point in their development. We can become stuck, for instance, somewhere between stem and parallel, and seem not to be able to get over that hurdle. We try everything - lessons, tips, instructional articles in ski magazines - but nothing seems to work.

Usually the cause of plateauing is an unconscious habit - a response to a certain situation that has become so ingrained that we no longer notice it. These habits can start when we are first learning to ski, but since they don't interfere with our initial progress, we remain unaware of them. Our bodies compensate for them, so that after a while they partially work...it becomes to feel normal.

The key to breaking a habit is the same as for all natural learning: increase your awareness.

 

[FilterTip]

SpyderTrader.

Thx for the detailed reply.

A few points though that I disagree with here... ( the sempai takes a deep breath)..

I have added attached chart labeled No:3 DAX chart

Check your chart, and see if your Point Three is correct. It isn't. It should be on the next bar. How does that change the landscape?

My attached chart (No:3) shows, I hope, pink up trend from corrected Light Green point 3...?

2. You failed to place the light blue channel into you own chart.

If the Pink channel is now correct then does this negate your down blue channel..?
a non dominant tape though..

If so my "problem bar" now merely becomes a pink FBO.
Price now remains in this pink channel with several FBO until it creates the first pink FTT, which is the dark blue point 1.

It's a Point Three Down Channel. Your chart has a 'tape' channel - ignoring the previous high bar. Had you drawn in this down channel, note how price in your 'problem bar' creates an FTT (circled red).

see above. The red circled FTT is now a pink FBO.

Also and quite important for me to get this clear, is that if price actually touches the LTL then why/how is it an FTT..?
Here in your blue down channel price actually touches my incorrect up light green LTL and my corrected pink up channel LTL. How can we then have a point 1 of your down blue channel .?

3. Your 'problem bar' in hindsight doesn't tell you the entire tale of the day. In real time, things looked quite different, so we have to describe this bar as if it were in real time - now.

As Price approaches your right trend line, we see decreasing red volume (as expected) while price 'retraces' the 'Forest.' We don't see increasing red volume here when Price breaks the light green trend line (a clue you don't have the Forest drawn correctly [see above] telling you your 'channels' are off.)

Yes I now understand the decreasing red vol as price approaches RTL.
Which is now the RTL of pink channel.

We then see a flaw (stall) arrive on the scene. No worries as price remains within our Point Three Down Channel (See why you have to draw the channels correctly?)

I don't see this "stall" annotated by you here in your down blue channel, perhaps because if I am now opperating in correct pink channel then there isn't a stall here..? !!
Only at the bar marked B. do you annote a "stall" which I understand. It could be seen as a pink FTT but the next bar is up on increasing/same black vol.

The next bar (The 'Problem Bar'), we do see (on a PRV basis) increasing volume, and in the beginning, it is red. Again, we expect this as price breaks our channel (our correctly drawn in up channel - not on my chart). As Price approaches the left trend line of the down channel, it stops and starts to head higher. An FTT (Point One)! A signal for change.
Here within our problem Gaussian, as Price traverses the down channel, we start to see a change take place Intra-Bar. First, we have decreasing black volume (close your eyes and visualize the change -

Yes the initially increasing red vol could signify a BO ( of the now new up pink channel) but as you discribe we end up with an FTT (red circle) or pink FBO and a push higher to LTL of new up pink channel with what becomes intra- bar black vol

or check a 1 minute chart to verify), then increasing black volume appears as Price breaks the RTL of the down channel.

I haven't gone below a 5 min time frame since studying this methodolgy..

Next, we have a flaw show up again (stall) followed by our 'top' (Point Two). So in real-time had you drawn in your channels correctly, you'd have seen an FTT and known the market had signaled change.

Regards the yellow point 1.2.3 that you added.
If the up pink channel is correct then we cannot draw in a new up channel within or from an existing up channel..?

At this stage we are still opperating within the corrected up pink channel..?

We see the same thing after Point Two (Yellow), Another Point Three Down channel (Peach) moves into an FTT creating our Point Three. As expected, we see increasing black volume as Price moves higher into the Forest.

I don't think this peach channel is correct either as regards previous blue channel. We are in corrected up pink channel.
The peach channel could be a no dominant tape of corrected pink channel. traversing to the pink RTL, with the possibilty of a BO as red vol is increasing and we have a close of bar outside the up pink channel, but price reverses back into pink channel on next bar.

5. You do a Good Job annotating your last down channel on this snip. Note how Price maintains its position within this smaller Forest - showing decreasing red volume right up until Price Breaches the RTL of our WIDE up channel.

Well you are kind to disguise further correction of my chart.
and whilst there is a channel formation ( orange down ), if the pink up channel form my corrected light green up channel is in fact correct, then we now have an FTT ( of my corrected up pink channel, and where you marked a pink FTT and a down pink channel with pink arrows, I have drawn a down dark blue channel).

Hopefully, my Intra-Bar Narration of your 'Problem bar' provided some clarity. I recommend practicing your annotations and making sure you correctly add the proper trend lines to your charts. Without the correct trend lines, you miss so much of the story.

Yes thankyou, of great help.

But I would be grateful to clarify the FTT situ if price actually touches LTL..I'm repeating a question above as it does confuse me when I see this annotation.. it determines the new reverse channel or point 1...

Many thx

 

[FilterTip]

No:3 DAX chart...

Thx Sydertrader for your patience and detiled response...

FilterTip

 

[FilterTip]

Quote from PointOne:

Please read the following from Inner Skiing by W. Timothy Gallwey and Robert Kriegel, I find it useful:

Thx PointOne.

Excellent stuff.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Few skiers want to spend more time than necessary learning something new. Having only a limited time on the mountain, they sometimes become impatient when awareness techniques are used in an Inner Skiing lesson to help them develop a new skill. Often they feel that they are wasting their time if they are not getting a tip or technical correction, since this is the way they have been taught in the past, and believe that it is the most direct route to immediate improvement.

I don't feel that I am waisting my time.
As for tips, etc..I haven't gone through my trading experience over some many years with this view or approach.
I guess I am very much self taught. (maybe that's not a good thing ) I've only ever bought one software package in about 20 years and that was when I first started trading, although many good books on trading etc... To date I have only ever met one person who has traded for a living in all this time.
that is partly due to the isolating nature of this path and also my own desire to want to understand things rather than "respond" to some "off the shelf" thing.
My enthusiasm for this methodology is really based on my own view that it is sound. It works and on many levels.
I say "it" works, because what has not worked properly over the years at times is me.
I need to get out of my own way.

The truth is that the more awareness you can bring to the practice of a new skill, the more easily, quickly, and thoroughly you will learn it. Our experience with Inner Skiing has shown that by focusing attention on each step the body discovers the best way of executing it.

Well put. Again my attraction to this methodology and more so when I saw Spydertraders month by month sylabus put forward, ws my awarness of this point of a step by step approach, building the foundation properly upon which eaxh layer can be added.
I was taught piano from the age of six. This is the closest parallel I can find.
practice your scales..dear me.. 2 to 3 hours a day through my teens years.

Often skiers reach a plateau at a certain point in their development. We can become stuck, for instance, somewhere between stem and parallel, and seem not to be able to get over that hurdle. We try everything - lessons, tips, instructional articles in ski magazines - but nothing seems to work.

Usually the cause of plateauing is an unconscious habit - a response to a certain situation that has become so ingrained that we no longer notice it. These habits can start when we are first learning to ski, but since they don't interfere with our initial progress, we remain unaware of them. Our bodies compensate for them, so that after a while they partially work...it becomes to feel normal.

I can cetainly relate to this, especially the plateauing.
But I find that the levels from unconscious incompetence all the way to unconscious competence is not an all or nothing.

by that I mean that we may well be on diferent levels for different things. ie: one may be unconsciously competent in doing A but conscioucly incompetent about B. Sure ultimately we strive for the higher level overall.

I made a comment about this methodology being akin to a telescope.
How I seem to gain focus and then lose it.
Perhaps this is part of wher levels of incompetence and competence overlap or are being transformed through awareness. I don't know, still much to learn.

I hope this is not off topic, I certaily thank you you for the post and any further comments or related info.

So much of what Spydertrader is teaching I feel is related to this on others levels.
Learning to "see" the forest is a good example.
We no doubt all have our own reasons as to why we do or don't "see" it. And we all have our own awareness moments when we go from not "seeing" to "seeing".

It's fascinating stuff and as I understand it all to do with Mr Hersheys posts about the way poeple "see" things.
Ie: just to be introduced to the mere idea of SCT, made me immediatelly aware of how "wrong" limiting an exit entry mindset is, and how I was infact trading to "protect" rather than to "profit". the former will only keep me at the same limited level where as the latter opens one up to the potential that is there.

I'm thinking as I write here, but I hope I'm making some sense and it's relavent and useful to anyone reading this.

The key to breaking a habit is the same as for all natural learning: increase your awareness.

I am aware of the need to be aware...
Self awareness is mostly bought on, as Mark Douglas says,by "forced awareness". if any self awareness has been lacking.
But unlike in skiing, in trading I feel that any "bad habits" are not so forgiving. The market will not adjust to compensate for the trader as the body may for the skier.

This is perhaps why Spydertrader has taken an extra month with gaussians. His understanding of the need to have foundations set before moving on.
After all it no doubt defeats his objective of helping poeple otherwise and simultaniuosly reinforces the very premise upon which he himself has learn such skills . imo..

I'm writting too much here perhaps. So I'll finish but if it is relavent, as I say I welcome any comments or additional info on this..

I've just opened the calander page for March.
A quote for each month...

"speak properly and in as few words as you can,
but always plainly for the end of speach is not ostentation
but to be understood"
William Penn (1644-1748)

Many thx

Best to all

FilterTip

 

[dkm]

Spyder
Any particular reason why you did not annotate the 13:10 bar as an FTT and the 13:15 bar as an FBO?

Thanks

 

[nkhoi]

Quote from FilterTip:

...
My attached chart (No:3) shows, I hope, pink up trend from corrected Light Green point 3...?



If the Pink channel is now correct then does this negate your down blue channel..?
a non dominant tape though..

If so my "problem bar" now merely becomes a pink FBO.
Price now remains in this pink channel with several FBO until it creates the first pink FTT, which is the dark blue point 1.

..

you miss 3 more channels until your first pink FTT, here is the first channel (dark blue) see if you can draw 2 more.

 

[FilterTip]

Quote from nkhoi:

you miss 3 more channels until your first pink FTT, here is the first channel (dark blue) see if you can draw 2 more.

Hi nkhoi.
thx for reply.

As I tried to explain in my previous response to Spydertrader,
if the pink up channel is correct, (which is a correction to the light green up channel as my point 3 on that green channel was wrong)
, then why would there be a light blue channel down especially as point Y price touches the pink LTL ( is it therefore an FTT ?)

and why would there be a your dark blue up channel.

Is your dark blue point 1 not an FBO of the pink channel?

And how would you have traded your dark blue point 3.
You would have bought there on a red bar closing on its low with the very next bar going lower on increased red vol..?

I can see ( now) another 2 "channels" that you are refering to, but this whole move now seems to be IMO in the context of the up Pnk channel ( if that pink channel is correct of coarse)

I can see how the light blue, your dark blue and 2 additional "channels " are all tapes of non dominant and dominant of the pink channel...

So where is the forest... !! ??

appreciate your imput..I am only pressuming the addition of my pink up channel is correct at this point.

FilterTip

 

[Ezzy]

Quote from ktmexc20:

How many refer to "a Gaussian" without really knowing what a Gaussian is?

Do you even know what a normal distribution is, how to determine it, and correctly utilize it's properties?

I ask this, as an example, because I want people to think harder(?) about what Jack is presenting to you all. What he presents goes much deeper than what's on the surface.

Continue to learn/THINK... and then some.

-kt

Care to expound on this? Obviously you have something in mind. Many time we don't get "normal" a distribution as we have overlapping cycles so I'd like to get your view on this.

Regards,

EZ

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from dkm:

Any particular reason why you did not annotate the 13:10 bar as an FTT and the 13:15 bar as an FBO?

In my mind (at the time) I did consider the 13:10 bar as a possible FTT. I imagine many people did. Again, in a sorta' 'real-time like' version of hindsight, we need to look for data sets which confirm an FTT or data which does not. Considering the 13:15 bar initially sees price head higher, it definitely looks like FTT to FBO or BO - when one looks at Price only. Checking down at Volume, however, paints quite a different story. On a PRV basis, Volume showed to be significantly less than the previous bar - a telltale sign of a flaw. If one had thought the 13:10 bar formed an FTT (and as a result, a Point Three Up Channel - See dotted blue lines on attached chart snippet), we would expect to see ever increasing levels of Black Volume as time moved forward (and Price exited the Down Trend). Instead, we do not 'see' confirming FTT data. Rather, we 'see' confirming 'flaw' data, and as it turns out, that is exactly what we 'see' on the charts - the type of flaw known as a 'dip' On the Forest Level Resolution, none of this matters due to price remaining within the channel.

At lower levels of resolution, a flaw represents a signal for change, similar to an FTT. Flaws signal a very short term signal for change. In the beginning, Flaws look exactly like FTT's. It's on the next (and subsequent bars) where we can tell the difference.

- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1382987>

 

[bucherwin]

Spyder: By reading your journals,

that I've learned from you/Mak and others immensely. Thanks.

In reviewing your 030207 ES chart, posted on page 287, the message on the upper right corner:" ..a second FTT had formed within a channel, Forest level monitoring Can reverse on the Second FTT within a channel if price has yet to break the RTL", is not clear to me.

I would go short at #1, FTT, reverse at #2, FBO and exit at #3, FTT; then wait for the next bar after Hitch bar,which broke down the channel, for confirmation to go short.

In your message:

Was that FTT, on top of #3 that you talked about, can go short when the price break the RTL???

When you/others mention about LTR, RTL,LTL,RTL,are they refer to the changes of trend lines/channels or the Price Bars???

Any illustrations that I can find to open up my eyes?