Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
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If you got your channels right and it smells like an FTT and it looks like an FTT immediately take the trade because it probably is an FTT. No need to wait for confirmation. I also tend to pick the bar before the real FTT BTW.
Guys, we trade ES but YM leads ES. What if YM shows an FTT big time but ES doesn't show signs of an FTT but there could be one soon but we still see no signs. Will you wait for confirmation on ES? Especially on slow hours ES and YM can behave quite different (FBO or FTT on YM and ES doesn't do anything etc).
regards,
Ivo
Quote from Spydertrader:
Yes we do love those 'volatility expansions' - either in the market or at the track.
- Spydertrader
Hi, I asked a question before whether an FTT is possible after a volatility expansion and without price touching RTL. Pls let me know your opinion about this.
regards,
Ivo
Can we talk about initial entries? I know Jack says to enter on bar 4 and that Spyder says he does not wait for bar 4. I wait for a point three before my first entry but this often leaves quite a bit on the table but entering on bar 4 did not work too well for me. How are you guys taking the first trade of the day?
The answer to this is a BIG yes. As a matter of fact, this is the usual sequence... Vol. Exp., begin partial move to RTL (sometimes just a few ticks), make another run at the new LTL, and then turn back toward the RTL. That's an FTT.
While I'm not trading at this point, I think I can help. THe safest thing at the beginner level is to wait for a forest level FTT and enter on that FTT. Obviously, that could mean waiting for sometime.
Ah, patience is a delicious fruit
One does not always need to draw a faster channel to see an FTT after a Volatility Expansion. Note the attached chart. We see two examples of FTT's following Volatility Expansions - one after the other. The first example (in the blue up trend) shows a large Volatility Expansion followed by price 'pulling back' into the close of the bar. On the following bar (red circle) price attempts to reach the 'new' (expanded) LTL, but fails to do so forming a 'double top' in the process. Note the Gaussian (R2R) where we first see the retrace (decreasing red), then the reversal (increasing red).
The second example (in the red down trend) shows a small Volatility Expansion followed by price attempting to retrace back to the RTL. Here, price resumes its downward run, and then fails to reach the LTL. After this FTT, we see Price break out of the down channel.
Hopefully, these two examples (one which forms an FTT on the next bar, and the second which attempts a left to right traverse before resuming the trend) of Volatility Expansions preceding an FTT have provided you some clarity.
- Spydertrader
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1372789>
Spyder - in my mind, the most difficult aspect of learning this methodology (to date, at least) hinges on the correct identification of the gaussian formations. I have a question concerning your recent snippet provided for ivob. If I am interpreting your annotations correctly, are you labeling the sequence of bars from 10:25-10:40 as red?
I would invariably label this as an ascending black (green). The first maroon arrow which is shown I would've "forced" to be a descending black, in order to correspond with the price reversal off the 10:15 bar low ( that is, I would want to see a B\/B). And this leads to another question: while viewing realtime, should a person keep in mind the "majority color" of a bar? In other words, if the formation of the bar is predominantly black (say, the first four minutes) , but then changes color toward the end of the period, would you be inclined to use the majority color in your gaussian determination?
When considering the R2R which you mentioned, I would need to use the 10:40 - 10:50 bars for the ( R\ ) and the 10:50 -10:55 for the ( /R ) Is this correct - if so, it doesn't seem to jive with the "maroon arrows"?
Sorry for these somewhat tortuous questions, and tia for any comments
I would invariably label this as an ascending black (green). The first maroon arrow which is shown I would've "forced" to be a descending black, in order to correspond with the price reversal off the 10:15 bar low ( that is, I would want to see a B\/B). And this leads to another question: while viewing realtime, should a person keep in mind the "majority color" of a bar? In other words, if the formation of the bar is predominantly black (say, the first four minutes) , but then changes color toward the end of the period, would you be inclined to use the majority color in your gaussian determination?
When considering the R2R which you mentioned, I would need to use the 10:40 - 10:50 bars for the ( R\ ) and the 10:50 -10:55 for the ( /R ) Is this correct - if so, it doesn't seem to jive with the "maroon arrows"?
Sorry for these somewhat tortuous questions, and tia for any comments
Quote from mephistoII:
Sorry for these somewhat tortuous questions, and tia for any comments
The chart I posted in my previous post belonged to someone else. I annotated the Price Channels only. The Gaussian annotations were there by another artist. I have attached an updated snippet with my own Gaussian annotations. Please review the following snippet to see if you have questions.
I apologize for the confusion created by not clarifying the Gaussians were not mine in the previous post.
- Spydertrader
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1372872>
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