Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Gaussian volume peaking + didnt reach LTL + began moving in the other direction. Visualize price "bouncing" before it's supposed to. This "bounce" is more pronounced when there is volume there to back it up (i.e. throwing the basketball at the wall rather than rolling it lightly). Instead of bouncing off the wall that is the LTL, it bounced off an imaginary wall. That wall is called change in sentiment. I've posted a lot of examples of this kind of stuff in both image and video format over the past 50 or so pages. I suspect especially the video stuff might help you out dkm.
 
So, in this example, the gaussian starts with the first bar of the down tape channel at 13:54? and ends with the FTT bar at 14:00?

would you have expected price to continue lower if the 14:00 bar had red volume in excess of the 13:54 bar?

Thanks and sorry I am slooooowww :)

Quote from Pr0crast:

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1372174>

gaussian volume peaking + didnt reach LTL + began moving in the other direction. visualize price "bouncing" before it's supposed to. Instead of hitting the wall that is the LTL, it hit an imaginary wall. That wall is called change in sentiment. I've posted a lot of examples of this kind of stuff in both image and video format over the past 50 or so pages. I suspect especially the video stuff might help you out dkm.
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Quote from Pr0crast:

+ began moving in the other direction.
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This is all I was trying to clarify. Whether you actually enter on the FTT bar or on the subsequent bar. Clearly the latter, when price begins "moving in the other direction" and prv is available for the decision process. :)
 
Cocaine: <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1372401">

Try not to make it into a set of rules like "if this volume bar is x amount higher or lower than a bar 5 bars ago." Try to understand what to look for and how to know you are looking at an FTT as it happens, and then what to look for afterwards to confirm the change in sentiment. Watch the vid I just posted ten times. Look for that sequence of events unfolding every time there is a dominant traverse.
 

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dkm: textbook example of an ftt bounce

<a href="http://pr0crast.com/files/FTTEXAMPLE.avi">download</a>

In the video I was being a little sluggish, because you could have ID'ed that FTT ON THE BAR THAT IT HAPPENED (the 12:45 bar). Do you see the "bounce?"
 
Quote from Pr0crast:

Good question. This is why your eyes should be glued to the screen and be thinking hard about PRV when you label that bar "FTT" as I have described. Sometimes, you will be wrong. In fact, if relying strictly on the ES/YM, I might go so far as to say that if you aren't wrong at least 20-25% of the time, you are waiting TOO LONG to identify the FTT. There will be mistakes made, but as Spyder has talked about over and over, if you make the mistake as early as possible, you will profit or break-even on it. It's the waiting that kills you.

Also, keep in mind that tools added later are sure to make this FTT-identifying process a lot clearer.
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Who is Pr0crast???!!! Absolutely awesome. Your posts are great! Let me catch up so I can jump in on the discussion...
 
Quote from dkm:

So you enter/reverse on every bar with peaking volume that does not not reach the LTL? Interesting technique.
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Yes, it is interesting. The context has to be right and as Pr0crast says there are other things to look at (DOM, T&S, previous volume etc).

The way I see it is you can wait for more confirmation before you get in and then suffer the inevitable upside down feeling for a bar or two while the trend is established. This way, if you're wrong you know almost immediately and can normally wash if necessary. (I do sometimes pick the bar before the real FTT - I'm working on preventing that happening.)

I think of an FTT as like a power drift turn in a rally car: at first the reversal volume is just slowing the car down, you're still drifting towards the outside of the turn without touching the barriers but then the new direction is established and the car is pointing out of the turn and the driver applies more gas steadily. Sometimes the driver gets it wrong and crashes through the barrier in what is termed a volatility expansion. The crowd loves those.
 
Quote from PointOne:

Sometimes the driver gets it wrong and crashes through the barrier in what is termed a volatility expansion. The crowd loves those.
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Yes we do love those 'volatility expansions' - either in the market or at the track. :D

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from Pr0crast:

Good question. This is why your eyes should be glued to the screen and be thinking hard about PRV when you label that bar "FTT" as I have described. Sometimes, you will be wrong. In fact, if relying strictly on the ES/YM, I might go so far as to say that if you aren't wrong at least 20-25% of the time, you are waiting TOO LONG to identify the FTT. There will be mistakes made, but as Spyder has talked about over and over, if you make the mistake as early as possible, you will profit or break-even on it. It's the waiting that kills you.

Also, keep in mind that tools added later are sure to make this FTT-identifying process a lot clearer.
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The earlier you make the call, the more room you have to wash and reverse if wrong. Think of the market going into congestion or a lateral. How long you wait to reverse will determine if you get whipsawed or can reverse with a wash/profit during the lateral.

- EZ
 
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