Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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I'll sort the Market Pace Lines for tomorrow.

thx spooz trader for getting me onto the 5 min for only channels.
I shall look to push this out further to even slower time frames.

thx R/R for sorting my FTT location re non-dominant trend.

and everybody for your references..etc..

Things certainly clicked a lot better today..
 

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Quote from nkhoi:

it has to hit at the same time because 30 is in 500.
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I am assuming that the smart traders feel that a reversal is coming some will buy YM and some will buy ES and because of less liquidity, the YM will move first. The 30 vs. 500 refers more to arb type trading. This is all just speculation on my part.
 
Quote from Bearbelly:

ETL That is pretty much the way I was thinking too. Smaller timeframe appears to lead the larger timeframe but I now believe there are other factors involved. For one lets assume smart money hits ES and YM at the same time. It takes much less volume to move YM than it does ES so the smart money there causes YM to move before ES catches up.
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I'd say why should we care why YM leads ES? We observe that it does on moments that matter (around FTT's) so we use it. If YM stops leading the ES we'll notice it and use something else. It's like wondering why people are buying or selling. We don't care why, we just notice it happens and when.

regards,
Ivo
 
Quote from FilterTip:

I know this may seem out of context as we are focused on the ES mini. (and I wont make a habit of it)
But I have attached my DAX chart for today so far..

I'm doing this just to reiterate the already stated fact, by spydertrader, that this methodology is applicable to other markets, especially for those that are only seeing this in the light of the ES...

etc.
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I don't know if DAX and ESTX50 move together but I have been annotating ESTX50 for a while but the results where not satisfying. Too much differences in volatility I guess. It gets choppy. I don't like it.

I do like very much the way eurodollar moves using this system. Have been annotating it and works well. As you are in Europe (like me) it could be an option to trade eurodollar before ES opens. Don't do it immediately but annotate for a while as this is also not the same animal as ES.

You can start small and use cash instead of futures but you can use the Eurodollar future chart for volume clues.

regards.
Ivo
 
Quote from ivob:

I don't know if DAX and ESTX50 move together but I have been annotating ESTX50 for a while but the results where not satisfying. Too much differences in volatility I guess. It gets choppy. I don't like it.

I do like very much the way eurodollar moves using this system. Have been annotating it and works well. As you are in Europe (like me) it could be an option to trade eurodollar before ES opens. Don't do it immediately but annotate for a while as this is also not the same animal as ES.

You can start small and use cash instead of futures but you can use the Eurodollar future chart for volume clues.

regards.
Ivo
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I have not monitored the ESTx50 for some years now.
Last I did there was no momentum to it.

I have not traded currencies, but thx for reference to volume clue off the Eurodollar.

I've traded the DAX for some time. Have a look at it's corrolation to the ES. Form US open and more so towards US close.
There seems to be a strong corrolation in ES leading DAX.
 

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Quote from ETLURKER:

Conclusion: Seeing an index move ahead of another index is not "proof" that 1 leads another, but may indicate that 1 tracks its underlying cash more closely and its quote reporting is more continuous as opposed to discrete.
Granularity.
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FWIW, this is what I think about YM vs. ES:

At times of change the YM has a higher signal to noise ratio than the ES: the signal is amplified. At other times (continuation) its amplified volatility does not help so much (it makes me twitchy for one). Spyders way of introducing the 2m YM lets you know when you need to look closely because you are already preparing for a FTT to appear on the ES. Don't make the mistake of getting sucked onto the 2m timeframe for too long!

Why does the signal appear on YM first? Perhaps a simple sum of 30 prices gets calculated quicker by the important market participants than a market weighted sum of 500 (implausible these days maybe, but I wouldn't discount it entirely). More importantly I think, when sentiment changes intraday (4 or 5 times usually), it takes longer for the 500 ducks to line up in a row in the underlying than the 30 in the smaller index. This effect would show up even if the indices had exactly the same granularity.

I hope Jack will add his comments.
 
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