Quote from dougcs:
Great thread so far!!!
What is the rationale for your comment that YM is smarter than ES?
Doug
ps-just wondering as this part of JH does not make sense to me.
Imagine looking at one derivative instrument traded on 2 exchanges A & B. The underlying cash for the instrument is traded on a third exchange C. On exchange A, the minimum trading increment is set by the exchange to be 10 cents. On exchange B, the minimum trading increment is $1.00. On exchange C, the minimum trading increment is 1 cent.
If one is watching the quotes on exchanges A,B & C it will appear that B leads A. For example C is going lower by a penny at a time until it is nearly 10 cents lower then suddenly B goes lower as well. A does not move. B goes lower by its increment of 10 cents per trade till its nearly 10 increments lower. Suddenly A goes lower 1 increment. It appears that B leads A.
In this example the cash index is changing by 1 cent higher or lower as it trades. Exchange A is limited to a 1 dollar minimum move. Exchange B is limited to a ten cent move. As the cash changes B will move first because it more closely follows the cash than does A.
In the real world of comparing YM to ES consider the following:
BASE price ES 1451
BASE price YM 12685
1 tenth of 1 percent move= .001
ES = 1451 X .001 = 1.45
YM 12681 X .001 = 12.68
Minimum increments
ES = .25
YM = 1
Number of increments in a 1 tenth of 1 percent move
ES = 1.45/ .25 = about 6 increments
YM = 12.68/1 = about 12 increments
So as you can see, the YM entails nearly twice as many increments in an identical percentage move as the ES. It is "easier" for the YM to move first because it tracks the underlying cash more closely than the ES tracks its underlying cash.
Conclusion: Seeing an index move ahead of another index is not "proof" that 1 leads another, but may indicate that 1 tracks its underlying cash more closely and its quote reporting is more continuous as opposed to discrete.
Granularity.