Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Quote from cnms2:

When I don't see anything at left, I think that there's no reason to assume anything. So if the volume decreases and the price goes up, I simply have a decreasing black (green) section of a gaussian. No bias (also spelled b s :) ).

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1710828>
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I don't really understand your annotations cnm, you are starting with B\/B which means means we have change from a down to an up channel. Where in this picture do you see that happening? Aren't you making assumptions also.
 
I use the close of the 15:58 YM Bar to coincide with the close of the INDU.

Thank you Spyder. Clearly you were referring to the close of the 15:58 2 min YM bar (not the 1 min bar - why did I think that???) which today was 13446. 1 min bar edge traders die hard.

lj
 
Quote from bi9foot:

Spyder,

In the attached snip, how would you consider the last bar?
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This is how I would expect it to unfold... I think the orange channel is too big to focus in on those couple of bars and expect some kind of immediate price action ... just my opinion
 

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Quote from ang_99:

Just because the first black volume bar is taller than the second doesn't make our INCREASING black annotation wrong.
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Um, given that the drawn Gaussian in question is ONLY those two bars long in all of those pictures (there is nothing before), then yes the falling Volume does make the rising slope wrong, based on ONLY those two bars...

imo :)
 
Quote from LostTrader:

Um, given that the drawn Gaussian in question is ONLY those two bars long in all of those pictures (there is nothing before), then yes the falling Volume does make the rising slope wrong, based on ONLY those two bars...

imo :)
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Drawing it as DECREASING black just doesn't make sense if we have an up channel. If you draw it as dec. black then you cant use it as your point 1. your channel would be drawn wrong. imo.
 
Any reversal starts with a retrace in the previous channel: decreasing volume followed by increasing volume of same color.
Quote from ang_99:

Drawing it as DECREASING black just doesn't make sense if we have an up channel. If you draw it as dec. black then you cant use it as your point 1. your channel would be drawn wrong. imo.
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I must say that this thread has taken a turn towards the surreal with contributors insisting that left is right, decreasing is increasing and that a quick mental calculation of risk:reward is not prediction.

It's starting to look ridiculous.

Can some objectivity be restored before year end?

Please!
 
Quote from cnms2:

Any reversal starts with a retrace in the previous channel: decreasing volume followed by increasing volume of same color.
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So I guess you are assuming we came off a down channel and entered our up channel on the B to B.

So it would look something like this..
 

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Quote from PointOne:

I must say that this thread has taken a turn towards the surreal with contributors insisting that left is right, decreasing is increasing and that a quick mental calculation of risk:reward is not prediction.

It's starting to look ridiculous.

Can some objectivity be restored before year end?

Please!
More...

Yeah, someone's going down to the bug level here.

To me it looks like a simple B2B
 
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