Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
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This has been my focus this entire past week. (review some of my prior posts)
I was often identifying my point 3 area too soon.
psychologically I didn't ant to miss the move but on the flip side I was uneasy with price moving against my entry area too much.
As a consequence price would then move against me by a few ticks or points.
After reviewing numerous charts I concluded that most of my emphasis was on the price bars themselves instead of a "complete data set" (price, volume, context, etc).
For example, at the start of an UP TREND, I would see the non dominant traverse and I would eagerly await the arrival of my point 3 area. Then the first GREEN bar I would see I would often mark this as my point 3 when it broke the "tape".
Next thing I knew price would move stall and move sideways or, even worse, it would move down a few ticks or points. I would then think I was wrong and say to myself that if I was in this position I would look to exit.
Then, of course, we put in the "real" point 3 and head straight up.
So now I not only wait for the tape to break but ,most importantly, wait for volume (or PRV) to be above the previous Volume bar and price (most times) to break the previous price bar high/low. ( this sounds SO basic but I wasnt doing it)
On the times that I did enter early this past week if price would stall I would immediately look to volume.
If it was going sideways or slightly against me on LOW VOLUME I was MUCH more confident in "fanning out" my channel as opposed to thinking EXIT.
I also realized that often times the PRICE BAR we mark as a point 3 is NOT neccesailly the price bar we would use to enter a position.
The price point could have established a higher low (in a UP channel) ,so to speak, but the volume has yet to arrive to drive price in the dominant direction.
Whew! Sorry for the long post but I was very frustrated with point 3's identification as well so I hope this helps in some small way.
As always comments or correction is welcome!
. . . great view on pt. 3's
Quote from Tums:
1. the decreasing gaussian tells me this is a retrace. i.e. the dominant traverse is down.
2. the current bar closed at the high of the range. Although I knew this is a retrace, I can't expect the market to drop dead from that point. There is still momentum in the upward push. Therefore I would expect the market to push a little bit higher before returning to the dominant traverse.
3. This is a good time to prepare the finer tools: (prepare only, we are still early! but things can happen quickly.)
a) YM: to see if there is a divergence from ES? (early signal of change.)
b) DOM: to see if there is a wall waiting.
c) T&S: what's up the sleeve?
d) STRSQU: at point of change
e) Vol & PRV: before the change
f) Vol & PRV: after the change, make sure the vol is carrying the direction.
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Great analysis Tums, I don't use ST/SQ, but I have 2 mins ES chart running as recommended by Oddi, to give an early warning .
I shorted bar 5 for 1 point, then bar 8 with a stoploss just above bar 7. I rode it down to bar 13. There was no reason for me to exit there, why I did, I don't know.
That was the flaw that announced the bigger trend's change ... 
Quote from callmate:
Thank you, that's great cnms2.
I exited on bar 13, and then noticed bar 14 as inside bar with decreasing volume. With hindsight it looks to be a flaw in a dominant trend which means continuation. Real time I wasnât quick enough to identify it.
Quote from cnms2:
That was the flaw that announced the bigger trend's change ...
I thought that was a flaw in downtrend ( dominant ) means continuation, I should have stayed in the trade until another FTT or the break of the rtl.
This is what happened later on, hence I can't see how this flaw could have announced the change in the bigger trend.
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