Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Ok folks, what comes next? Thnk in terms of change/continuation

:D

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Quote from callmate:

Ok folks, what comes next? Thnk in terms of change/continuation
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1. the decreasing gaussian tells me this is a retrace. i.e. the dominant traverse is down.

2. the current bar closed at the high of the range. Although I knew this is a retrace, I can't expect the market to drop dead from that point. There is still momentum in the upward push. Therefore I would expect the market to push a little bit higher before returning to the dominant traverse.

3. This is a good time to prepare the finer tools: (prepare only, we are still early! but things can happen quickly.)

a) YM: to see if there is a divergence from ES? (early signal of change.)

b) DOM: to see if there is a wall waiting.

c) T&S: what's up the sleeve?

d) STRSQU: at point of change

e) Vol & PRV: before the change

f) Vol & PRV: after the change, make sure the vol is carrying the direction.


That's the basics folks!
 
Quote from ivob:

I am very often (it happens every day) too early when anticipating the point three. For example 10:30 + the one at 11:30. In fact on the first one I lose several points in what I experienced as chop.

Often I am in very early, price makes a couple of small moves (seems to try to make a pt3) and together with my impatience this is enough to shake me out and miss the real move.

So usually correct on direction, wrong on timing.

Anyone else having this problem? I think it has to do with fear to miss the move.

regards,
Ivo
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There are occasions where the a point 3 is established, but an FTT for the new channel occurs in the same bar. The next bar sees a BO of the channel. It's easy to be on the wrong side when this happens.

There are other times where a point three is being established intrabar, but we don't allow the tape to be properly formed before declaring it a point three. consequently, price might reverse intrabar to form a tape in the opposite direction, voiding our new channel altogether. Even though PRV (which should be larger than the volume at the close of the previous bar) gives a clue, the PRV could also be signaling an intrabar guassian, leading to a reversal.

To make absolutely sure the point 3 has been established, I wait either for new highs (or lows) to be taken out, or look for an end-of-bar formation for a tape that seals the deal.

RT
 
Quote from ivob:

I am very often (it happens every day) too early when anticipating the point three. For example 10:30 + the one at 11:30. In fact on the first one I lose several points in what I experienced as chop.

Often I am in very early, price makes a couple of small moves (seems to try to make a pt3) and together with my impatience this is enough to shake me out and miss the real move.

So usually correct on direction, wrong on timing.

Anyone else having this problem? I think it has to do with fear to miss the move.

regards,
Ivo
More...

IMHO
We need two resolution levels in term of limb, tree, forest in mind to trade this method, (not different chart interval). the fast one for entry, and the slow one to go along with the market.
the entry risk is eliminated/minimized from the fast resolution, the profit exit/stop is generated from the slow one. This is what I'm trying to do in the light of "cut lose short, let profit run".
 
Quote from ericta:

IMHO
We need two resolution levels in term of limb, tree, forest in mind to trade this method, (not different chart interval). the fast one for entry, and the slow one to go along with the market.
the entry risk is eliminated/minimized from the fast resolution, the profit exit/stop is generated from the slow one. This is what I'm trying to do in the light of "cut lose short, let profit run".
More...

My view is that, when trading the forest level, one should only have to rely on the 5m chart with PRV, intrabar V, and end-of-bar V. Some might think different, but I think if one can't trade the coarsest resolution profitably EVERY DAY with only these tools, one shouldn't bother moving on to additional tools. This is the stage I am at, trying to master the basic tools first. My daily PNL will tell me when I am ready to move on.

RT
 
Quote from RoughTrader:

My view is that, when trading the forest level, one should only have to rely on the 5m chart with PRV, intrabar V, and end-of-bar V. Some might think different, but I think if one can't trade the coarsest resolution profitably EVERY DAY with only these tools, one shouldn't bother moving on to additional tools. This is the stage I am at, trying to master the basic tools first. My daily PNL will tell me when I am ready to move on.

RT
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totally agree. you are so fortunate to realize this in such a early stage. it took me 4 month to just understand the truth behind this one.
 
Quote from ericta:

totally agree. you are so fortunate to realize this in such a early stage. it took me 4 month to just understand the truth behind this one.
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I gave this little sermon for several months but was pretty much ignored. Maybe 5% get the message.
 
Quote from Bearbelly:

I gave this little sermon for several months but was pretty much ignored. Maybe 5% get the message.
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Probably more. A lot of the people that never chime in are the ones that actually do the work.

RT
 
BB
I heard your sermon and it did have an effect. My only regret now was not listening to Spyders repeated advice to only monitor. I spent 6 months in brain lock because of this. Sermons like yours finally made a difference, like a brick hitting me in the head. I'm fairly comfortable at the beginner level, picking entries in high volume times and monitoring the rest of the time.
After 10 months of following this I expected to be further along. Who knows how long it will take me, don't care, being at a stage where I can profit some is WAY better than I was before I started this journey.
As for monitoring, lately I have stayed on the 5 min unless there is decreasing volume, than I drop down to look for signs of change.
When volume is extreme and for some reason I find myself not in due to early exit or just missing it I find formations on short fractals and enter on a lower low/ higher high, using PRV to validate the entry. Don't make as much but at least I am in on the right side again. I only do this when volume is extreme. It's like going to the ATM machine.

Thanks again to all the contributers. What a cool experience this is turning out to be.




Quote from Bearbelly:

I gave this little sermon for several months but was pretty much ignored. Maybe 5% get the message.
More...
 
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