Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Quote from ivob:

Also I have noticed that often not very long after volatility expansion there's a FTT and / or break of RTL. Could you pls comment on this observation? Have you found the same?
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Once one sees a volatility expansion, one can expect an FTT.

The above does not mean, "AN FTT always follows a volatility expansion on the next bar. Volatility expansion may continue to occur for quite some time before one finally sees an FTT formation. However, one should prepare to see an FTT after a Volatility Expansion. Surprisingly, when one begins to know when and where to look for FTT's, they suddenly become much easier to find.

Thanks for sharing your "Aha!" moment with the discussion.

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from ivob:

Hi,

I would like to share an observation.

When drawing channels we first draw the right trendline (RTL) then we clone it and place it on the other side of the channel and we use the farthest point away between the points we used for RTL (point 1 and point 2).

Today I was wathing eurodollar futures and the trend was down (or we should say dominant traverse was from right to left). But then I saw 4 point exactly lining up and I decided to draw a line thru it. A Left trendline. Then I cloned this line to the other side of the channel using the point farthest away before the down channel started. What happened is that price went exactly to RTL at 6 am.

Do you understand what I am saying? I end up with the same result as when I had drawn RTL first and LTL after that but in this case I did it the other way around almost instinctively in an effort to "forecast" how far the 5:55 volatility expansion would go.

Am I completely making this up or is this something useful and part of the Hershey method and we are still going to learn about it? It's something I observe regularly BTW.

regards.
Ivo
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Although Im not a member of Jacks A-Team, I follow and practice his approach closely.

What you observe here is true and often happens in the currency markets - Point 2 will often form double or triple tops (or bottoms) whose parallel will dictate point three.

OBSERVE THE OBVIOUS.

But remember - dont overcomplicate.

My suggestion - use Jacks 1-2-3 rule as the standard. The 1-2-3 setup happens far more often then the former.

So logically, we assume this as our starting point and make trades in ANTICIPATION of it.

However, we dont make ANTICIPATION trades on a 1-2-2-3 setup. We merely are MINDFUL it can happen and watchful during those conditions under which its likely to occur. If it does happen, trade it.

My 2 cents - WATCH and WAIT for the 1-2-2-3 set up. Dont anticipate it.
 
Quote from Cocaine:

What is pro rata volume and how is it used? Thanks!
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Caine, you got this far in the thread without knowing what PRV is? Hehe... it's just calculating what volume will be by the end of the bar. So if one bar is 100, and you are halfway through the next bar and it's already at 75, you can anticipate that it will close at a higher volume than 100.
 
Oh, hehe, I did know what is was. Yes I use it already :)

I was thinking back to what was discussed when Nkhoi brought up a "B2B" on the daily and you mentioned that it may be a black bar but its a split bar based on the way the bar formed. I guess I confused PRV with "purity" of the bar :D

Quote from Pr0crast:

Caine, you got this far in the thread without knowing what PRV is? Hehe... it's just calculating what volume will be by the end of the bar. So if one bar is 100, and you are halfway through the next bar and it's already at 75, you can anticipate that it will close at a higher volume than 100.
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This place has been dead lately! Maybe this will get some discussion going-- a zip file of some of today's FTTs screencapped when I caught them.

Comments/questions/criticism?
 

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For me, I became better at anticipating / identifying FTTs when I set aside the entry-exit mindset and instead just focussed on the process.

It wasn't easy, getting rid of the thought process that went "OK, is this an FTT @ 1450.50, if so an entry at this point looks good for 3+ points, but then where should I set my stop, what is the profit target, is price stalling now, should one exit now or hold on ..."

But once I started to equate excellence for Feb2007 = simply observing/anticipating the gyrations of the ES using channels + volume WITHOUT any entry-exit pressure, then the whole activity suddenly became easier and more fluid. My ability to see and understand the PV relationship became better.

Just my experience, if this is not the right track then Spyder/MAK please feel free to correct.
 
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