Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
- Thread starter Spydertrader
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Spyder - afraid I've reached another mild state of confusion here. Does the above imply that 'if' a person was trading live at the forest level, that he would not be interested in an entry trigger off a FTT until after seeing a XO of the RTL? I had thought that we were striving to identify the FTT at the earliest possible moment, and that deploying the YM this month was to enhance our abilities for doing so. I do understand that a misidentified FTT can quickly evolve into a WTF - no big deal in my mind, as we are dealing with price extremes and should be able to realize a mistake has been made rather quickly.
No doubt I have overlooked something this month, but I also have a question which somewhat parallels the above ideas. I was under the impression that as time passed, we would be continually 'fine tuning' our approach, so I need to ask why the emphasis lately seems to be on pulling back to the forest level.
Thank you for any clarifications ...
I had to frame this on my office wall. I spewed my drink all of my monitor. Spyder you bastard...
Caine et al... Look at pr0crast's post from the AM. It is classic and super. I marked it up before heading over to the expo but I see that the post didn't stick. Crast, your charts are excellent. He sees an FTT. If the FTT does not BO, that does not mean that it wasn't an FTT. FTTs do not invalidate themself. When you look carefully, it is really only a screwup of not labeling the FTT as it happens. When they are there, they are there. There's no second guessing. I find that the questions people really want to ask is which FTT is THE FTT. NOW DOES NOT TELL YOU AT THE POINT OF AN FTT that it is THE FTT to END ALL CURRENT TREND FTTs. On DKM's chart, he is finding WTF. So here is the killer that I didn't get the chance to drive home with illustrations over the weekend. When you annotate channels within channels, WTF fall out of your unknown space. We talked about tightening channels. When you have critical points, you bound them. Channels bound critical points. When I tighten my channel, it is because the market has established a new critical points. When P cycles, it cycles off of critical points (ie. 1, 2, 3). The fractal aspect of this is that going from pts 1, 2, 3 also has a channel aspect. At the forest level, we are looking at critical points of channels of channels... The alternative of course is that if you get a WTF, then exit... However, recall there are no flaws at the forest view. This means, YOU WAIT UNTIL YOU GET TO THE RTL. There are only two things that can happen at your right trendline. You either BO, or FBO. A WTF is not even possible there...
Do you find yourself trading live at the Forest Level Resolution? or, Do you find yourself among the trees using the YM to learn to catch an FTT sooner?
- Spydertrader
No. You haven't missed anything. Yes, we do plan to move forward 'fine tuning' as the months pass. However, based on the PM's, IM's, ET Chat Questions and emails I have received, some have yet to fully grasp the 'beginning level' concepts. Since I want to avoid at all costs creating an environment where answers specifically handed out to a person at one resolution confuse an individual at another level of resolution, I have slowed things down a bit in an effort to give those individuals experiencing difficulty some time to 'catch up' with the rest of the class.
- Spydertrader
Personally, I find myself trying to stay on the same page as the rest of the group
Perhaps a comment about this reversion to the forest level would help clear things up for me. Is this a means of pulling along those who arrived a bit later onto the journal, or are you still wanting everyone to revisit and solidify some basic fundamentals.
Just tryin to stay in step here, as I know my enthusiam if unleashed would quickly take me places where I probably shouldn't be
Cheers ...
Edit: Oops - a little slow here finding part II of your response, Spyder! I now understand - thanks again.
Thank you Spyder. I think I ignored the carryover channels somewhat but understand their importance.
I was reading in the pdf that pr0crast created last month (wonderful piece of work BTW) and in the end some notes were included of the January Tucson meetings. There it says: "Once you have a volatility expansion, look for the end effect".
Also I have noticed that often not very long after volatility expansion there's a FTT and / or break of RTL. Could you pls comment on this observation? Have you found the same?
regards,
Ivo
Hi,
I would like to share an observation.
When drawing channels we first draw the right trendline (RTL) then we clone it and place it on the other side of the channel and we use the farthest point away between the points we used for RTL (point 1 and point 2).
Today I was wathing eurodollar futures and the trend was down (or we should say dominant traverse was from right to left). But then I saw 4 point exactly lining up and I decided to draw a line thru it. A Left trendline. Then I cloned this line to the other side of the channel using the point farthest away before the down channel started. What happend is that price went exactly to RTL at 6 am.
Do you understand what I am saying? I end up with the same result as when I had drawn RTL first and LTL after that but in this case I did it the other way around almost instinctively in an effort to "forecast" how far the 5:55 volatility expansion would go.
Am I completely making this up or is this something useful and part of the Hershey method and we are still going to learn about it? It's something I observe regularly BTW.
regards.
Ivo
I would like to share an observation.
When drawing channels we first draw the right trendline (RTL) then we clone it and place it on the other side of the channel and we use the farthest point away between the points we used for RTL (point 1 and point 2).
Today I was wathing eurodollar futures and the trend was down (or we should say dominant traverse was from right to left). But then I saw 4 point exactly lining up and I decided to draw a line thru it. A Left trendline. Then I cloned this line to the other side of the channel using the point farthest away before the down channel started. What happend is that price went exactly to RTL at 6 am.
Do you understand what I am saying? I end up with the same result as when I had drawn RTL first and LTL after that but in this case I did it the other way around almost instinctively in an effort to "forecast" how far the 5:55 volatility expansion would go.
Am I completely making this up or is this something useful and part of the Hershey method and we are still going to learn about it? It's something I observe regularly BTW.
regards.
Ivo
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