Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Trading Journal III

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Quote from rickylc:

my interpretation of the same chart. I eliminated the point one you have for the start of the IT as it is too long ago and the channel it would have formed became useless. it can be seen as the green channel on the far left.

i like to base the IT on a quarter or about 65 bars.

Maybe you have hit a home run - it will be interesting to see what it does at around the 21.75 level (if it gets there) - you may get the second BO that Jack refers to:

You have a lot of advance warning for the trade.

filter #1.

filter stocks in short IT's that are having FTT's on dominant traverse of the IT.

Filter #2.

List the stock for monitoring and sort the list by "unsual volume".
When it hits .22 on the list at about !0 to 11, then you have about and hour to enter and then price will break out over several days. The volume will really pick up after the IT channel has been broken.

IT means Intermediate Term

FTT mean Failure To Traverse

dominant traverse means the price movement across the IT in the direction of the IT.

Unusual volume is a calculation where you get the decimal perent of the 65 day average volume as a continuous calculation on a list.

The common term for these kind of trades is called "hitting a home run". Most people have seen them and most people do not know how to anticipate them since two filters are required.

You can hold them long than the three days.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1332329#post1332329
 
However the trades goes, I'm pleased as punch.

It's a kick to be able to trade off of a channel I drew in almost two months ago and haven't altered since. I was able to establish the channel for the current IT around the end of November.

Almost two months later, the price bounces off the RTL of the channel, almost to the penny, freakin' unbelievable

If that doesn't give you a "religious" channel experience, there ain't nothin' that will

:)
 
Quote from PointOne:

Attached is my debrief on my STEC and XING paper-trades.

Comments are welcome, especially on what to look out for next.


(Please bear with me as I experiment with the best posting format.)

Hi PointOne,
Here is one way to interpret the STEC chart. I took the liberty of adding the red downtrend lines for another perspective. YMMV
I like the way you presented this evaluation with notes on the side of the chart.
good trading to you
gooch87

<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1333224">
 

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Quote from cipherscribe:

Greetings!

Can people please post their current FU?

Cheers,

ALY BITS COGO CRVL CTRN DTLK DXPE FTEK GIGM GMXR GROW GRRF HWCC IAAC ININ LQDT MIKR NVEC OMNI OMRI PCCC RATE RBAK REDF SIM SIRF STEC SYX XING

RBAK should probably be removed (takeover pending).
 
Quote from gooch87:

Hi PointOne,

I like the way you presented this evaluation with notes on the side of the chart.
good trading to you
gooch87


Hey gooch
thanks for the comments. What this reinforces for me is the extra risk of trying to get in early on a move - the STEC reversal was brutal.

From my analysis of daily charts a much safer approach is to wait for the daily stoch(14,3) to be rising strongly through the 75-80 band on volume - which it was for XING - then sell the day after peak volume is confirmed or stoch falls <80 / 10% target / 6 days.

Others may go for the home runs off the FTT but I'm thinking catching the safe 5-10% in the middle of the move is the way to start out.
 
Quote from cipherscribe:

Greetings!

Can people please post their current FU?

Cheers,

My final universe is almost the same as PointOne's. I have omitted the AMEX stocks (personal preference) and RBAK (merger stock).

I also have MED and UCTT. CHL came up on my research, but the float information is suspect. Telechart does not list a number for it, and Yahoo Finance lists the float in the billions of shares. GRRF has a float of only 465,000 shares. Perhaps it was added to the final universe before before the float was so low? I have kept the CHL just as an interested observer. I am wondering what others make of it.

- Huskydog
 
Quote from PointOne:



Others may go for the home runs off the FTT but I'm thinking catching the safe 5-10% in the middle of the move is the way to start out.

I agree, catching a small profit while building skill, is the way to go.
 
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