Nice to see so many reading the boards early on a Sunday morning!
- Spydertrader
- Spydertrader
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Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal
- Thread starter Spydertrader
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While not earth shattering by any means, F5 Networks (FFIV) released news this morning:
http://tinyurl.com/3mvca
I scan the Watch List for any News Releases each morning and throughout the day. Hershey Stocks often respond soon after a news release.
In addition, the following URL's provide information on the release of earnings. Jack has advised not holding a stock during earnings announcements.
http://www.earnings.com/
http://www.fulldisclosure.com/highlight.asp?client=cb
I hope you find the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
http://tinyurl.com/3mvca
I scan the Watch List for any News Releases each morning and throughout the day. Hershey Stocks often respond soon after a news release.
In addition, the following URL's provide information on the release of earnings. Jack has advised not holding a stock during earnings announcements.
http://www.earnings.com/
http://www.fulldisclosure.com/highlight.asp?client=cb
I hope you find the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
Our system failed to trigger any signals this morning as none of the Watch List stocks had actual volume exceed calculated Dry Up Volume by 11:00 AM. In addition, actual volume failed to exceed pro-rata volume on all time frames before 11:30 AM. However, I stumbled across an interesting development later in the day.
When TRIMM exceeded FRV status this afternoon, I checked MACD & The Stochastic Indicator to confirm taking a long position. While reviewing time and sales numbers, I noticed actual volume had exceeded the Previous Day Volume (PDV = 26,662) at 2:00 PM. Price at that time held at $19.42. At the same time, both MACD (+.1328) and The Stochastic Indicator (82.3464) fell within our desired parameters. Rather than trade the FRV signal (when price was $20.44), I decided to investigate further to determine if other Hershey Stocks followed this similar pattern.
A review of BAMM revealed similar results to TRMM. The PDV for BAMM was 41,286. Today's volume for BAMM exceeded this level at 1:30 PM when price held at $9.23. At that time, both MACD (+.0232) and The Stochastic Indicator (99.8785) also fell within our desired parameters.
Both TRMM and BAMM showed price improvement over the previous day when their respective volumes exceeded the previous day at the times specified above.
According to G33M4K's Master Scoring List Excel Sheet, we calculate the scores for both TRMM and BAMM at zero. According to Jack Hershey, we look to buy stocks "as they transition from a score of zero to seven." With both price and volume improvement, two of the three requirements necessary for a stock to receive a score of seven have occurred.
Jack Hershey uses an "eyeball" method for calculating Dry Up Volume, while we use a formula (currently several different formulae). I have long thought the difference between these two methods has resulted in the difference in the level of profitability seen between the two methods of dry up calculation. As a result, I arrived at the following question:
What if we used our Dry up Formula to determine stocks that were eligible for purchase, but used price and previous day volume (along with MACD and The Stochastic Indicator) to determine entry on a trade? We would then wait to see if volume continued to increase throughout the remainder of the day eventually reaching FRV status. If not, we would then exit the trade.
Using TRMM and BAMM as examples, both stocks improved in price reaching a 5% increase over their price when they exceeded their previous day volumes. Both TRMM & BAMM exceeded FRV status by EOD. As a result, we would have held both stocks at least through tomorrow.
Other stocks improved in price, but failed to exceed their previous day volume. BCSI (also currently scored as zero) failed to exceed the previous day volume by EOD, yet improved in price by .81. As a result, we would not have taken the BCSI trade.
Based on the above information, I arrived at the following entry criteria: Eligible stocks currently in dry up with a G33M4K Master List Score of zero that show both price and volume improvement. Monitor the stocks throughout the day. If FRV status is not reached by EOD, exit. If FRV status is reached by EOD, hold overnight. Today, the above criteria would have resulted in the purchase of two different long positions resulting in 5% gains on each. We would hold both TRMM and BAMM at least until tomorrow.
I realize this variant on the entry criteria appears to contradict the strict entry methods described by Jack in his many posts. However, altering our criteria may get us closer to the 'spirit' of his decision making when it comes to volume and his "eyeball" determinations.
I welcome your comments and input regarding the above post.
- Spydertrader
Disclaimer: No actual trades were placed. The information above has been presented for discussion and educational purposes only. No real trades have been inferred or implied.
When TRIMM exceeded FRV status this afternoon, I checked MACD & The Stochastic Indicator to confirm taking a long position. While reviewing time and sales numbers, I noticed actual volume had exceeded the Previous Day Volume (PDV = 26,662) at 2:00 PM. Price at that time held at $19.42. At the same time, both MACD (+.1328) and The Stochastic Indicator (82.3464) fell within our desired parameters. Rather than trade the FRV signal (when price was $20.44), I decided to investigate further to determine if other Hershey Stocks followed this similar pattern.
A review of BAMM revealed similar results to TRMM. The PDV for BAMM was 41,286. Today's volume for BAMM exceeded this level at 1:30 PM when price held at $9.23. At that time, both MACD (+.0232) and The Stochastic Indicator (99.8785) also fell within our desired parameters.
Both TRMM and BAMM showed price improvement over the previous day when their respective volumes exceeded the previous day at the times specified above.
According to G33M4K's Master Scoring List Excel Sheet, we calculate the scores for both TRMM and BAMM at zero. According to Jack Hershey, we look to buy stocks "as they transition from a score of zero to seven." With both price and volume improvement, two of the three requirements necessary for a stock to receive a score of seven have occurred.
Jack Hershey uses an "eyeball" method for calculating Dry Up Volume, while we use a formula (currently several different formulae). I have long thought the difference between these two methods has resulted in the difference in the level of profitability seen between the two methods of dry up calculation. As a result, I arrived at the following question:
What if we used our Dry up Formula to determine stocks that were eligible for purchase, but used price and previous day volume (along with MACD and The Stochastic Indicator) to determine entry on a trade? We would then wait to see if volume continued to increase throughout the remainder of the day eventually reaching FRV status. If not, we would then exit the trade.
Using TRMM and BAMM as examples, both stocks improved in price reaching a 5% increase over their price when they exceeded their previous day volumes. Both TRMM & BAMM exceeded FRV status by EOD. As a result, we would have held both stocks at least through tomorrow.
Other stocks improved in price, but failed to exceed their previous day volume. BCSI (also currently scored as zero) failed to exceed the previous day volume by EOD, yet improved in price by .81. As a result, we would not have taken the BCSI trade.
Based on the above information, I arrived at the following entry criteria: Eligible stocks currently in dry up with a G33M4K Master List Score of zero that show both price and volume improvement. Monitor the stocks throughout the day. If FRV status is not reached by EOD, exit. If FRV status is reached by EOD, hold overnight. Today, the above criteria would have resulted in the purchase of two different long positions resulting in 5% gains on each. We would hold both TRMM and BAMM at least until tomorrow.
I realize this variant on the entry criteria appears to contradict the strict entry methods described by Jack in his many posts. However, altering our criteria may get us closer to the 'spirit' of his decision making when it comes to volume and his "eyeball" determinations.
I welcome your comments and input regarding the above post.
- Spydertrader
Disclaimer: No actual trades were placed. The information above has been presented for discussion and educational purposes only. No real trades have been inferred or implied.
I was in TRMM, but had to wait 10 days for it to go up - not optimal for compounding.
With what you suggested, would it be too late to get the price rise if wait for FRV during the day? I havent checked, but I got the impression from your post that the volume level required was reached after the price had gone up 5%?
With what you suggested, would it be too late to get the price rise if wait for FRV during the day? I havent checked, but I got the impression from your post that the volume level required was reached after the price had gone up 5%?
Quote from nzbryant:
I was in TRMM, but had to wait 10 days for it to go up - not optimal for compounding.
Perhaps not during the last time you entered a trade with TRMM, but certainly today (with a 5% increase in price during the afternoon) it appears to fit our model. Looking back over the TRMM chart (attached), it appears volume failed to reach FRV status by EOD assuming you entered around the 14th of October (based on your "ten day hold" mentioned in your post). Based on the revised entry criteria I mentioned above, we would have exited the trade in this particular case you mentioned. Without looking deeper into the data for the day you entered a trade for TRMM, I cannot comment on the profitability of exiting that day. However, based on a FRV failure exit, you would not have held the stock for 10 days. Again, using the revised criteria mentioned above.
Quote from nzbryant:
With what you suggested, would it be too late to get the price rise if wait for FRV during the day? I haven't checked, but I got the impression from your post that the volume level required was reached after the price had gone up 5%?
Under the current entry criteria used prior to todays discovery and revision, we would wait until Dry Up Volume had been exceed by actual volume prior to 11:00 AM. This failed to occur with both BAMM and TRMM today. Our goal is to enter into a trade that has sufficient volume to reach FRV status by EOD. Using both TRMM and BAMM, we would have missed 5% of the move (or more) while waiting for the DU Volume and subsequent FRV trigger based on our use of the DU formulae as a method of entry.
What I suggest, is to use the DU calculation formulae for eligibility only, rather than for both eligibility and entry. Combining these eligible stocks with Score (of zero) would provide a method of entry when both price and volume exceeded the previous day (confirming trend with MACD and The Stochastic indicator). In other words, we would purchase DU Stocks with scores of zero when both volume and price exceeded the previous day. Today, the only two stocks that fit this set of criteria were BAMM and TRMM. Certainly 2 trades cannot substitute for proper testing and evaluation, but my thinking here is this: Jack's use of "eyeball" methodology may result in a DU value that is closer to the actual pdv (previous day volume) for our list of stocks. Our formulae, while producing positive results over the last year, may result in a dry up level of volume that is a great distance from the previous day actual volume. The time (and subsequent volume) required to fill this "DU volume gap" takes place with a corresponding increase in price which we currently fail to capture. Looking to improve upon the current level of results, I feel this revised set of entry criteria may actually get us closer to the "spirit" of Jack Hershey's methods, and therefore, closer to his published level of profitability.
Again, I welcome any input, contribution or comments.
- Spydertrader
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=642523>
Attachments
My experience is that a price increase AND volume increase from dry-up, on a pre-screened stock, results in a higher win% and less drawdown, than entering a stock that did not have an increase in volume in the prior day. The volume increase does not need to be large, just enough to show that buying pressure has increased.
I can not quantify this, and I did not necessarily do this buying TRMM 10 days ago, it is just my experience from about 1000 different Wealth-lab tests.
PS: Forgive me if I have not followed the nuances of your intraday tests as I only trade EOD.
I can not quantify this, and I did not necessarily do this buying TRMM 10 days ago, it is just my experience from about 1000 different Wealth-lab tests.
PS: Forgive me if I have not followed the nuances of your intraday tests as I only trade EOD.
Quote from nzbryant:
My experience is that a price increase AND volume increase from dry-up, on a pre-screened stock, results in a higher win% and less drawdown, than entering a stock that did not have an increase in volume in the prior day. The volume increase does not need to be large, just enough to show that buying pressure has increased.
Glad to hear your tests confirmed my thinking. I appreciate your input.
- Spydertrader
Sevens - Ones - Zeros
NGPS - UTHR - RSTI
PPD - EAGL - PHS
PACT - UNA - AMX
TRMM - MRVL - RDWR
CREE - FFIV - URBN
NTAP - DRIV - TIBX
HTCH - VCLK - KSWS
CTXS - JUPM - DECK
HUM - LSCP - JCOM
URBN - CTSH - TKC
Hotlist
PACT
NGPS
TRMM
JUPM
FFIV
DECK
Watch List
IDSA - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
BCSI - DU Cycle - DU5
TASR - DU Cycle
LWAY - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
GMAI - DU Cycle - DU5
HRT - DU Cycle - DU5
EVCI - DU Cycle - DU5
FFIV - DU Cycle
GDP - DU Cycle
HANS - DU Cycle
SMTS - DU Cycle
PETD - DU Cycle
SINA - DU Cycle - DU5
ASKJ - DU Cycle
VSEC - DU Cycle
NTES - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
NVEC - DU Cycle - DU5
DPTR - DU Cycle - DU5
LIFC - DU Cycle
ANIK - DU Cycle - DU5
SRVZ Wealth Lab Equations - Dry Up
ENWV
GMAI
MKTW
G33M4K Score for the above Stocks
ENWV - 7
GMAI - 4
MKTW - 0
Gallas2 "Keep an Eye on These" Stocks
NAVR (Attached)
Stocks in Dry Up & G33M4K Master List Score of Zero
FFIV
HRT
IDSA
NVEC
PETD
SINA
TASR
(VSEC, IDSA, HRT, LWAY, NVEC & NGPS have float outside normal parameters)
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=642642>
NGPS - UTHR - RSTI
PPD - EAGL - PHS
PACT - UNA - AMX
TRMM - MRVL - RDWR
CREE - FFIV - URBN
NTAP - DRIV - TIBX
HTCH - VCLK - KSWS
CTXS - JUPM - DECK
HUM - LSCP - JCOM
URBN - CTSH - TKC
Hotlist
PACT
NGPS
TRMM
JUPM
FFIV
DECK
Watch List
IDSA - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
BCSI - DU Cycle - DU5
TASR - DU Cycle
LWAY - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
GMAI - DU Cycle - DU5
HRT - DU Cycle - DU5
EVCI - DU Cycle - DU5
FFIV - DU Cycle
GDP - DU Cycle
HANS - DU Cycle
SMTS - DU Cycle
PETD - DU Cycle
SINA - DU Cycle - DU5
ASKJ - DU Cycle
VSEC - DU Cycle
NTES - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
NVEC - DU Cycle - DU5
DPTR - DU Cycle - DU5
LIFC - DU Cycle
ANIK - DU Cycle - DU5
SRVZ Wealth Lab Equations - Dry Up
ENWV
GMAI
MKTW
G33M4K Score for the above Stocks
ENWV - 7
GMAI - 4
MKTW - 0
Gallas2 "Keep an Eye on These" Stocks
NAVR (Attached)
Stocks in Dry Up & G33M4K Master List Score of Zero
FFIV
HRT
IDSA
NVEC
PETD
SINA
TASR
(VSEC, IDSA, HRT, LWAY, NVEC & NGPS have float outside normal parameters)
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=642642>
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