Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal
- Thread starter Spydertrader
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Huh? Let's see here: you post in a thread where every detail of a system has been discussed ad nauseum and where ideas have been shared in a very open fashion. It is even possible that you may have benefited from this discussion. Is it inconceivable to ask you to share your ideas?
Life's rule of thumb, number 589: Don't do anything that you don't want to do.
Good luck.
Our system failed to generate any signals again today. Not one of the Watch List stocks had an actual volume exceed calculated Dry Up Volume prior to 11:00 AM. In addition, on a pro-rata basis, none of our watch list stocks exceeded any pro-rata volume levels. As a result we take no action today.
Regarding our trade with NTES, The stochastic Indicator fell below 50 just after 12:00 noon EST. As a result we enter a sell order.
12/02/04 12:04:22 55.20 55.20 55.20 400
As our purchase price was $53.89, we end up gaining $1.31 per share, and consider it a "wash trade" for purposes of scoring the journal results.
In hindsight, we see that volume did NOT continue yesterday and failed to reach FRV status. As a result, I should have been looking to exit earlier this morning when price reached $54.89. We see a classic case of "failed breakout" (FBO) in that volume failed to achieve the levels normally required to sustain price improvement.
Because I failed to note the comparison of actual volume to calculated FRV in my daily notes, I failed to exit at the appropriate time. I learned another valuable lesson. Keeping a trading notebook and noting market, price, and volume conditions at the end of each day provides valuable insight. Unfortunately, I failed to follow my own rules when it comes to my daily debrief and subsequent observations in written format. As a result, I plan to maintain my trading notebook each day without exception.
I hope you find the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
Regarding our trade with NTES, The stochastic Indicator fell below 50 just after 12:00 noon EST. As a result we enter a sell order.
12/02/04 12:04:22 55.20 55.20 55.20 400
As our purchase price was $53.89, we end up gaining $1.31 per share, and consider it a "wash trade" for purposes of scoring the journal results.
In hindsight, we see that volume did NOT continue yesterday and failed to reach FRV status. As a result, I should have been looking to exit earlier this morning when price reached $54.89. We see a classic case of "failed breakout" (FBO) in that volume failed to achieve the levels normally required to sustain price improvement.
Because I failed to note the comparison of actual volume to calculated FRV in my daily notes, I failed to exit at the appropriate time. I learned another valuable lesson. Keeping a trading notebook and noting market, price, and volume conditions at the end of each day provides valuable insight. Unfortunately, I failed to follow my own rules when it comes to my daily debrief and subsequent observations in written format. As a result, I plan to maintain my trading notebook each day without exception.
I hope you find the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=639891>
If I may, here is an excerpt from a post Jack made earlier this year. There is a subtle concept that we are all accepting here and I will try to add some color. Our orientation/process is simply to learn, improve, and build upon our orientation/process (iterative refinement). We seek to assist each other.
So here's how I wound up with the same conclusion(s) as Jack. I am curious to understand the nature of all perspectives (including letting the cat of the bag). Interestingly enough, I had found that the complete opposite is true but for reasons that may not seam obvious. We are operating in anticipation. Understanding what this entails was very rewarding for me. In my day job, I write code that stochastically models/forecast default risk several years out. Currently, the stochastic calculus integral has more than 400 independent/dependent variables that provides an expectation for the future. This drove me to preclude that markets must be a complicated place but nonetheless predictable given the right equations or sets of equations. Working for 3 years at my current occupation lead me to believe this, it had created significant barriers for questioning how I viewed markets (think telegraphing & diffusion equations). Considering Jack's train of thought was extremely challenging since it was contrary to my viewpoint. Initially, this hurdle was unsurmountable. I stumbled upon the solution to overtake this hurdle via a post noting the orthogonal relationship between forecasting and anticipating and the relationship between the market participant and the market. I could write on at length on this viewpoint, however, it is probably more beneficial and thus I encourage readers to question why or why not this may be true and rationalize the conclusion(s) that they arrive at. I suspect that you may find the conclusions extremely interesting and enabling.
Kindest Regards
G33M4K the Newb
Link to Jack's post
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=27863&pagenumber=4
Sevens - Ones - Zeros
EBKR - UTHR - MRVL
ASPM - CRDN - MDRX
NTAP - PHS - SINA
ECPG - TKC - HRT
TIBX - DECK - FFIV
JUPM - EAGL - HUM
VCLK - LSCP - DPTR
FFIV - DRIV - CREE
HRT - CTSH - NAVR
MDRX - PMTI - SHFL
Hotlist
HRT
EBKR
JUPM
FFIV
NAVR
PMTI
SINA
Watch List
IDSA - Du Cycle
ESMC - Du Cycle - DU5
LWAY - Du Cycle - DU5 - DU10
HRT - Du Cycle - DU5 - DU10
NAVR - Du Cycle
ENWV - Du Cycle
BAMM - Du Cycle
NVEC - Du Cycle - DU5
LSCP - Du Cycle
LIFC - Du Cycle
ANIK - Du Cycle - DU5
SRVZ Wealth Lab Equations - Dry Up
BAMM
ENWV
VSEC
G33M4K Score for the above Stocks
BAMM - 7
ENWV - 5
VSEC - 6
Gallas2 "Keep an Eye on These" Stocks
LIFC (Attached)
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=640247>
(VSEC, IDSA, HRT, LWAY, NVEC & NGPS have float outside normal parameters)
EBKR - UTHR - MRVL
ASPM - CRDN - MDRX
NTAP - PHS - SINA
ECPG - TKC - HRT
TIBX - DECK - FFIV
JUPM - EAGL - HUM
VCLK - LSCP - DPTR
FFIV - DRIV - CREE
HRT - CTSH - NAVR
MDRX - PMTI - SHFL
Hotlist
HRT
EBKR
JUPM
FFIV
NAVR
PMTI
SINA
Watch List
IDSA - Du Cycle
ESMC - Du Cycle - DU5
LWAY - Du Cycle - DU5 - DU10
HRT - Du Cycle - DU5 - DU10
NAVR - Du Cycle
ENWV - Du Cycle
BAMM - Du Cycle
NVEC - Du Cycle - DU5
LSCP - Du Cycle
LIFC - Du Cycle
ANIK - Du Cycle - DU5
SRVZ Wealth Lab Equations - Dry Up
BAMM
ENWV
VSEC
G33M4K Score for the above Stocks
BAMM - 7
ENWV - 5
VSEC - 6
Gallas2 "Keep an Eye on These" Stocks
LIFC (Attached)
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=640247>
(VSEC, IDSA, HRT, LWAY, NVEC & NGPS have float outside normal parameters)
One afternoon in the Autumn of 2003, I logged into the Paltalk Chat Room in order to test the software. As I logged in, only one other name appeared in the Chat Room in addition to my own: Jack Hershey. Over the next thirty minutes, Jack and I discussed a variety of topics. Flying Gliders, His vision for creating "pockets of wealth," Automation of the Hershey Equities Method, and the story of his journey trading the markets to name but a few of the topics covered. Jack asked only one thing of me. He requested that anything I developed pertaining to his methods, I freely share with anyone with an interest. "No proprietary stuff."
Without hesitation, I promised Jack I would do as he requested: help others to learn as he once assisted me. My viewpoint on sharing methods stems from my real world experience with sharing "best practices" in the business world. I freely shared my formula of success with anyone with an interest. Over the years, I arrived at the conclusion that even when I provided a detailed road map to success, the vast majority of people would not do the effort required to follow the path to success. Out of every ten people, One individual will determine they already have achieved a level of success, and require no additional improvement. Two will dismiss out of contempt that which they didn't understand. Two will actually evaluate the plan, but determine arbitrarily, "the plan won't work, or won't work for them." An additional two begin the journey but fail to travel beyond the initial first few steps. Two more progress a great deal along the path to success, but allow an outside influence to take them off track in some fashion. Out of the ten, we have one individual remaining, that possessed the required motivation, willingness to improve, and work ethic required of a successful individual. I have witnessed the same paradigm repeat over and over again within a community of traders.
As a result, I continue to share my methods for trading the Jack Hershey Equities Method knowing full well the vast majority of individuals reading will fail to make the journey.
From a Pro-Rata Volume standpoint, ESMC has 'just missed' the levels needed to trigger a trade at the 25%, 50% and 75% pro-rata volume levels. Price continues to improve - currently up .79 on the day. MACD has remained very high all morning (+.0199), but The Stochastic Indicator currently resides at a level (68.1786) just below our desired parameters. In addition, ESMC has an average daily volume lower than we would prefer. While no signal has triggered, I post the above comments for educational purposes.
- Spydertrader
- Spydertrader
Our system failed to generate any signals today based on either pro-rata dry up volume or our regular dry up volume formula for our watch list stocks. As a result, we take no action regarding additional trades today. Regarding ESMC, the stock failed to exceed DU volume levels required for trade consideration. Notice how the Chart of ESMC doesn't show the "Classic pullback" pattern evident when a stock travels through its natural cycle. NTES currently trades well below our exit point yesterday appearing to confirm our decision to exit earlier than our normal hold time.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=640478>
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=640478>
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