Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal

Status
Not open for further replies.
Sevens - Ones - Zeros
MKTW - ECSI - JCOM
FFIV - NAVR - EWBC
MTXX - SNIC - DECK
NTAP - PETD - AMX
CREE - TASR - HDWR
CTSH - PENN - SHFL
LSCP - URBN - ULCM
HRT - JUPM - NTES
DDN - MRVL - OPEN
KSWS - OPEN

Hotlist

TASR
HRT
MKTW
FFIV
JUPM
NAVR
ECSI
NTES
PETD

Watch List

TASR - DU Cycle
ESMC - DU Cycle - Du5 - DU10 - DU20
IDSY - DU Cycle - Du5
LWAY - DU Cycle - Du5 - DU10 - DU20
SWIR - DU Cycle
HANS - DU Cycle
ALDN - DU Cycle
EVCI - DU Cycle - Du5 - DU10
NAVR - DU Cycle - Du5
SMTS - DU Cycle - Du5 - DU10
HLEX - DU Cycle

Wealth Lab Equations

ECSI
ESMC
IDSA
TRMM

Scores for above Stocks

ECSI - 5
ESMC - 2
IDSA - 7
TRMM - 3

(HRT, VSEC, NVEC, IDSA, LWAY have float outside normal parameters)

NTES has returned to our final universe list after a six month absence

- Spydertrader
 
Our system failed to generate any buy signals today either Long or Short. None of the Watch List stocks had an actual volume exceed calculated Dry Up Volume by 11:00 AM. ESMC (attached Chart) came close. We have been watching this stock for about a week, and although ESMC failed to 'make the cut' by use of our dry up formula, using an 'eyeball' determination of dry up volume may have signaled a trade. Since I do not use an 'eyeball' method for determining dry up, I comment on it here in case others may have traded this signal today.

- Spydertrader

Edit: ESMC DID appear on our list of Wealth Lab Equation Stocks that were in Dry Up on the previous day.
 

Attachments

Sevens - Ones - Zeros
CCRT - NAVR - UPL
PHS - PETD - PMTI
NPO - TASR - EWBC
SONO - HRT - HANS
CHTT - PENN - JUPM
RSTI - HDWR - URBN
CTSH - MRVL - KSWS
ENWV - SHFL - DECK
MSA - ALDN - JCOM
LSCP - SNIC - PPDI

Hotlist

TASR
HRT
HANS
ALDN
PMTI
JUPM
NAVR
ENWV
PETD

Watch List

TASR - DU Cycle
IDSY - DU Cycle - DU5
LWAY - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
SWIR - DU Cycle
HANS - DU Cycle
ALDN - DU Cycle
EVCI - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
NAVR - DU Cycle - DU5
SMTS - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
HLEX - DU Cycle
LIFC - DU Cycle


Wealth Lab Equations

ECSI
IDSA
PETD

Scores for above Stocks

ECSI - 5
IDSA - 7
PETD - 1

(HRT, VSEC, NVEC, IDSA, LWAY have float outside normal parameters)
 
At 10:01 PM today, actual volume for HANS exceeded calculated Dry Up Volume. However, since we have no price improvement, we take no action in terms of instituting a LONG position. For those interested in shorting Hershey Stocks, HANS makes an excellent candidate:

Price: $27.70
MACD: -.0089
Stoch: 21.0346
Gap UP: 9.2%

Based on a daily chart for HANS (See Attached), we can set a (10%) target price of $24.93 ($25.40 according to the chart). Our stop loss (5%) would be $29.08.

Since shorting Hershey stocks remains beyond the scope of this journal, I post the above scenario for educational purposes only. As I have repeatedly advised, The Jack Hershey Equities Method remains a predominantly LONG only method. Although Jack has discussed shorting Hershey stocks in the past, the available information regarding shorting Hershey stocks remains limited at best.

Although I traded the above signal, I will not include the profits in the results of this journal.

I hope you find the above information useful.

- Spydertrader
 

Attachments

At 10:56 PM today, actual volume for HANS exceeded calculated Dry Up Volume. We see price improvement, and MACD remains positive (+.0542). However, The Stochastic Indicator remains at 52.6682. In addition, we do not see a classic "point three" pattern (as defined by Nwbprop) when analyzing a chart of IDSY (See Attached).

As a result, we take this trade, but anticipate the need to sell prior to reaching our normal 10% gain target.

11/04/04 10:56:42 14.94 14.92 14.94 400

We will monitor this stock throughout the afternoon looking to see The Stochastic Indicator rise to 75 or higher with MACD trending upward. We would also like to see actual volume reach FRV by end of day.

- Spydertrader
 

Attachments

As MACD began to fall, I felt it prudent to off the shares of IDSY. I really didn't see the value of holding until MACD crossed over into negative territory. I wasn't all that confident in the trade set up to begin with, and in hindsight, should have waited for The Stochastic Indicator to have had a level of 75 or higher before taking the trade. The trade resulted in a whopping $24.00 gross profit ($4.10 net after commissions).

11/04/04 12:07:56 15.00 14.98 15.16 400

The take home lesson: Wait for the set ups to occur. Remain patient, and STOP thinking I know more than the market.

- Spydertrader
 
Thanks, Spydrtrader. The long red candle which ironically can be viewed as an up candle, does not provide much comfort. However for stocks this is not unusual. I'm much more familiar with currency and index futures intra-day charts. This type of a pattern is unusual for these trading vehicles.

Take care
 
As MACD for HANS began to cross over into positive territory, I covered my Short Shares. Watching the time and sales numbers, it appears others have decided to do the same. The Stochastic Indicator remains low (13.98), but the green line has finally crossed above the red line. Usually, this indicates the beginning of a minor trend reversal. Using the Chart Script over at the Wealth Lab web site, we determine that Peak Volume to be 421,000. Current Volume for HANS exceeds 479,000 - well above our calculations.

11/04/04 12:50:00 26.10 26.07 26.10 400

We end up with a gross profit of $1.60 per share in three hours time. The day remains profitable.

I hope you find the above information useful.

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from svrz:

Thanks, Spydrtrader. The long red candle which ironically can be viewed as an up candle, does not provide much comfort. However for stocks this is not unusual. I'm much more familiar with currency and index futures intra-day charts. This type of a pattern is unusual for these trading vehicles.

Take care
More...

Thanks, but I should have known better. Both The Stochastic Indicator and failure to exhibit Nwbprop's "point three formation" on the IDSY Chart were clear signs to ignore the trade signal. I forced a trade on a 'less than ideal' set up. Normally, I should have expected to walk away with a loss. Fortunately this time, I washed the trade with a few dollars profit. At least this trade reinforces the lesson to remain patient and wait for the proper set up to occur - a relatively inexpensive lesson all things considered.

I appreciate your contributions to the post trade analysis.

- Spydertrader
 
I have monitored the progress of ESMC over the last two days. You may recall that ESMC did NOT trigger a signal using our Dry Up Volume Calculations, but ESMC DID trigger a signal using srvz's Wealth Lab Equations. The price of ESMC has appreciated 15% since triggering a buy signal.

While I have yet to perfect the technique required to profitably trade srvz's Jack Hershey Equations, I have created a rudimentary set of criteria that I continue to test. Although early in my analysis, it appears that the srvz equations catch a few of the moving stocks that our Dry Up Volume Calculations do not. While the equations do not catch ALL of the stocks, I feel that adding "The SRVZ Test" to The Hershey Equities Method may result in an improved profit potential. Again, what follows is a rudimentary guide. Additional testing and analysis is required before I can determine if the steps below can be improved.

1. Scan Final Universe looking for stocks with Dry Up Signal (Either Du1, DU2 or Du3).

2. Note the volume for any stock signaling Dry Up.

3. When Current Day Volume exceeds previous day volume, we have a buy signal.

4. Check for price improvement.

5. Buy LONG.

6. Monitor price and volume for improvement.

7. Next day look for signal in FRV Section

8. Hold if price and volume increase and / or FRV signals

9. Sell when FRV signal dissipates or price hits trendline channel.

10. Review above steps daily.

Thanks to srvz for sharing the Wealth Lab Code for his equations. I have found them useful, and I suspect others have as well.

- Spydertrader
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top