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Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal
- Thread starter Spydertrader
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Quote from nwbprop:
After looking at ANIK again. I would have made the channel this way. Anybody can say this in hindsight. I will try to catch it next time.
Thanks for posting the chart, Nwbprop. Your new chart explains why ANIK failed to break out. We purchased near the left side of the channel rather than the right side (as we thought, due to improperly drawn trend lines). Definitely, a mistake I will look to avoid in the future. Had I drawn the trendlines properly on my chart, I might have been looking to exit yesterday when MACD crossed into the negative, or simply not purchased at all. Lesson learned.
Speaking of lessons learned, ANIK provided another lesson today: placing stops before you enter the trade and sticking to them. Currently, price has fallen another .80 since our stop triggered.
In hindsight, it appears we didn't follow the Jack Hershey Methods exactly as we should have - resulting in a loss on this trade. Although at the time, we believed we were following our trading rules correctly, hindsight analysis clearly shows us we entered on the wrong side of the channel. While still a loss, at least we walk away from it a little wiser - learning how to avoid repeating the same mistake in the future.
- Spydertrader
I inadvertantly copied an incorrect link in my post on Money and Risk Management: The corrected link is posted here:
http://members.aon.at/tips/moneyMan10.htm
I hope that helps.
- Spydertrader
http://members.aon.at/tips/moneyMan10.htm
I hope that helps.
- Spydertrader
DU cycle - add lowest volume during each cycle divided by the number of cycles.
Du 5 - lowest volume averaged 5 days before breakouts averaged over number of breakouts
Du 10 - lowest volume averaged 10 days before breakouts averaged over number of breakouts
Du 20 - lowest volume averaged 20 days before breakouts averaged over number of breakouts (Closest to Chart Script)
Today's Watch List:
TASR - DU Cycle
ESMC - DU Cycle
NVEC - DU Cycle - DU5
CALM - DU Cycle - DU5
LWAY - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
SWIR - DU Cycle
LSCP - DU Cycle
EVCI - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
ENWV - DU Cycle
NAVR - DU Cycle
SMTS - DU Cycle
HLEX - DU Cycle
(LWAY, NVEX & ESMC have float issues, but I included them to show the various methods that calculated Dry Up Volume)
The above stocks have actual volume (from the day before) that is the same (or less than) the dry up volume calculated by the method(s) posted next to the symbol. Some stocks have actual volume levels below Dry Up Volume calculated by several methods. Breakout occurs when actual volume exceeds any ONE of the dry up calculations.
To save everyone some time, I will post which DU Calculations are associated with each stock in the Watch List as I did above. When exceeding dry up, I will post which dry up calculations were exceeded at the time each trade was made (or declined).
I need to point out that the above methods of calculating Dry Up Volume do not provide superior results to the methods posted by Jack Hershey (eyeball method). The above methods attempt to quantify that which may be unquantifiable. While they may be easier, quicker and faster, they do not produce superior results. As a result, I encourage everyone to test the numerous methods of Dry Up calculation posted throughout this thread (and in other locations) in an effort to uncover a superior method.
- Spydertrader
Du 5 - lowest volume averaged 5 days before breakouts averaged over number of breakouts
Du 10 - lowest volume averaged 10 days before breakouts averaged over number of breakouts
Du 20 - lowest volume averaged 20 days before breakouts averaged over number of breakouts (Closest to Chart Script)
Today's Watch List:
TASR - DU Cycle
ESMC - DU Cycle
NVEC - DU Cycle - DU5
CALM - DU Cycle - DU5
LWAY - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
SWIR - DU Cycle
LSCP - DU Cycle
EVCI - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
ENWV - DU Cycle
NAVR - DU Cycle
SMTS - DU Cycle
HLEX - DU Cycle
(LWAY, NVEX & ESMC have float issues, but I included them to show the various methods that calculated Dry Up Volume)
The above stocks have actual volume (from the day before) that is the same (or less than) the dry up volume calculated by the method(s) posted next to the symbol. Some stocks have actual volume levels below Dry Up Volume calculated by several methods. Breakout occurs when actual volume exceeds any ONE of the dry up calculations.
To save everyone some time, I will post which DU Calculations are associated with each stock in the Watch List as I did above. When exceeding dry up, I will post which dry up calculations were exceeded at the time each trade was made (or declined).
I need to point out that the above methods of calculating Dry Up Volume do not provide superior results to the methods posted by Jack Hershey (eyeball method). The above methods attempt to quantify that which may be unquantifiable. While they may be easier, quicker and faster, they do not produce superior results. As a result, I encourage everyone to test the numerous methods of Dry Up calculation posted throughout this thread (and in other locations) in an effort to uncover a superior method.
- Spydertrader
Sevens Ones Zeros
MTEX ARTI CCBI
CYTC TASR LEND
HTCH CNCT BR
FMT JUPM GILD
ENWV SIE UTHR
GIVN CMTL PMTI
DECK HDWR CLE
PETD YHOO URBN
GDP FTI CRDN
TNP MRVL FMD
Hot List:
TASR
CRDN
ENWV
PMTI
JUPM
PETD
TASR - DU Cycle
NVEC - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
BCSI - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
UBET - DU Cycle
CALM - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
LWAY - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
SWIR - DU Cycle - DU5
ALDN - DU Cycle - DU5
EVCI - DU Cycle
HANS - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
GMAI - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
LIFC - DU Cycle
SMTS - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
ASKJ - DU Cycle
HLEX - DU Cycle - DU5
MSA - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
(NVEC has float issues and should be removed)
UBET has a dollar amount under the normal cutoff for Hershey Stocks. This is a result of making the cut (into the 'final universe' list) before its price fell below normal criteria.
Odd fact: HANS, a stock we currently own, has been shown to be in dry up while we own it. I do not recall this happening in the past year. I have seen jack mention a few times about the possibility of a stock changing its 'score' opposite of that which was anticipated - usually during a pullback in the trend. Hopefully, this is the case here. Based on this information, our decision to 'take some profits off the table' was a good one.
I hope you find the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
MTEX ARTI CCBI
CYTC TASR LEND
HTCH CNCT BR
FMT JUPM GILD
ENWV SIE UTHR
GIVN CMTL PMTI
DECK HDWR CLE
PETD YHOO URBN
GDP FTI CRDN
TNP MRVL FMD
Hot List:
TASR
CRDN
ENWV
PMTI
JUPM
PETD
TASR - DU Cycle
NVEC - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
BCSI - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
UBET - DU Cycle
CALM - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
LWAY - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
SWIR - DU Cycle - DU5
ALDN - DU Cycle - DU5
EVCI - DU Cycle
HANS - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
GMAI - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
LIFC - DU Cycle
SMTS - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
ASKJ - DU Cycle
HLEX - DU Cycle - DU5
MSA - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
(NVEC has float issues and should be removed)
UBET has a dollar amount under the normal cutoff for Hershey Stocks. This is a result of making the cut (into the 'final universe' list) before its price fell below normal criteria.
Odd fact: HANS, a stock we currently own, has been shown to be in dry up while we own it. I do not recall this happening in the past year. I have seen jack mention a few times about the possibility of a stock changing its 'score' opposite of that which was anticipated - usually during a pullback in the trend. Hopefully, this is the case here. Based on this information, our decision to 'take some profits off the table' was a good one.
I hope you find the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
Quote from Spydertrader:
Sevens Ones Zeros
MTEX ARTI CCBI
CYTC TASR LEND
HTCH CNCT BR
FMT JUPM GILD
ENWV SIE UTHR
GIVN CMTL PMTI
DECK HDWR CLE
PETD YHOO URBN
GDP FTI CRDN
TNP MRVL FMD
Hot List:
TASR
CRDN
ENWV
PMTI
JUPM
PETD
TASR - DU Cycle
NVEC - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
BCSI - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
UBET - DU Cycle
CALM - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
LWAY - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
SWIR - DU Cycle - DU5
ALDN - DU Cycle - DU5
EVCI - DU Cycle
HANS - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
GMAI - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
LIFC - DU Cycle
SMTS - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
ASKJ - DU Cycle
HLEX - DU Cycle - DU5
MSA - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
(NVEC has float issues and should be removed)
UBET has a dollar amount under the normal cutoff for Hershey Stocks. This is a result of making the cut (into the 'final universe' list) before its price fell below normal criteria.
Odd fact: HANS, a stock we currently own, has been shown to be in dry up while we own it. I do not recall this happening in the past year. I have seen jack mention a few times about the possibility of a stock changing its 'score' opposite of that which was anticipated - usually during a pullback in the trend. Hopefully, this is the case here. Based on this information, our decision to 'take some profits off the table' was a good one.
I hope you find the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
I am new here, so sorry if you have answered these but I am still a little confused.
1. In the above, where does the Watch List start? I don't see it labeled. I assume it is with TASR, which means 16 stocks are on your list?
2. I thought I read somewhere else that the Watch List was 10 stocks? Or, is it a variable number?
3. Why don't you list the volume number that you are looking to exceed to trigger an entry for that day? I know you are putting the method, but why not just list the volume (eg, DU5 - 126,000). If there are multiple methods, just put the lowest volume that will trigger a trade. That way, people know when and why a trade was entered. Especially if they want to go back and do analysis.
Thanks.
Quote from kernan:
I am new here, so sorry if you have answered these but I am still a little confused.
Everyone here was new at one time or another - either new to Jack's Methods or new to trading. Feel free to ask any questions you like.
Quote from kernan:
1. In the above, where does the Watch List start? I don't see it labeled. I assume it is with TASR, which means 16 stocks are on your list?
Watch List
TASR - DU Cycle
NVEC - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
BCSI - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
UBET - DU Cycle
CALM - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
LWAY - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
SWIR - DU Cycle - DU5
ALDN - DU Cycle - DU5
EVCI - DU Cycle
HANS - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
GMAI - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
LIFC - DU Cycle
SMTS - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
ASKJ - DU Cycle
HLEX - DU Cycle - DU5
MSA - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
Yes, the list begins with TASR. I neglected to label it. Sorry for the confusion.
Quote from kernan:
2. I thought I read somewhere else that the Watch List was 10 stocks? Or, is it a variable number?
The Watch List contains all stocks from the final universe list that are also in Dry Up Volume. The number varies depending on the number of stocks in Dry Up each day. Jack Hershey uses 10 stocks in his Hot List. Today we had fewer than 10 stocks in ours. The methods used in this journal vary somewhat from the methods Jack Hershey teaches.
Quote from kernan:
3. Why don't you list the volume number that you are looking to exceed to trigger an entry for that day?
Of the four methods I currently track, no one method consistently results in a profitable trade signal. I have posted several other methods for Dry Up Volume calculation used by others, that may or may not provide superior results. Jack Hershey (and other individuals) uses an 'eyeball' method to obtain superior results to those I have achieved. As dkm pointed out in a previous post, Dry up value remains a 'concept' rather than a definitive formula. As a result, I encourage you to evaluate all the different methods discussed (and other methods you may have read about elsewhere) to determine for yourself which method works best. I have no doubt everyone (including myself) would find benefit from your results.
Quote from kernan:
4. I know you are putting the method, but why not just list the volume (eg, DU5 - 126,000).
I have provided one method for automatically calculating Dry Up Volume located at the following URL:
http://www.wealth-lab.com/cgi-bin/WealthLab.DLL/editsystem?id=32994
Time constraints have not allowed me to create automation for each of the methods used to calculate dry up volume. Perhaps, I will have more time for the creating of additional Chart Scripts in the future. However, even without automation, it is a relatively simple process for you to 'do the math' involved.
Quote from kernan:
5. If there are multiple methods, just put the lowest volume that will trigger a trade.
Clearly, I use four methods to calculate Dry Up Volume. Simply placing the 'lowest volume' would result in a 'short cut' method being used. Short Cuts (unless they result from a time saving use of automation) often result in losses. One of the goals I stated for the journal remains to improve upon the results I obtain at my current level of trading. 'Triggering' a trade does not equate to 'triggering a profitable trade.' As I have said, no ONE method consistently provides the BEST method for Dry Up Calculation.
Quote from kernan:
6. That way, people know when and why a trade was entered. Especially if they want to go back and do analysis.
I post the reasons for entering each trade. I also post the reasons we pass on a certain trade. I also encourage discussion form everyone in an effort to learn from any mistakes made during the process. Nothing prevents anyone from doing their own analysis. I recommend doing so each day for each of the stocks listed above.
This journal contains a wealth of information about the Jack Hershey Equities Method - including links to additional information for augmenting the learning process. Many individuals have posted contributions resulting in a benefit to those wishing to learn Jack's Methods, as well as, to those more experienced.
If you still feel that the journal provides less than adequate information because of a failure to post the Dry Up Volume levels for each stock, please, feel free to do the calculations and post them here. I have no doubt others will find your contributions helpful. I encourage everyone to contribute.
- Spydertrader
Quote from Spydertrader:
If you still feel that the journal provides less than adequate information because of a failure to post the Dry Up Volume levels for each stock, please, feel free to do the calculations and post them here. I have no doubt others will find your contributions helpful. I encourage everyone to contribute.
- Spydertrader
Whoa! I did not mean your journal had less than adequate information. I apologize if it sounded that way.
I was originally confused by Watch List and Hot List because of the missing label, and when I read through the thread this morning (my first time here) you usually put the Hot List at the bottom - this time it was the middle. Now I know what I am looking at, and thanks for the clarification.
Regarding posting volume - I was simply suggesting posting it for the Hot List, so that would be for the six stocks today (you should also not kill yourself, and only post the DU method for the Hot List also!). My thoughts were that even if we did not all agree on the DU volume, we at least knew what you were looking at for purposes of analyzing the journal. If you don't want to - no harm, no foul.
For the record, I think this is a great journal - and one of the more productive ones on ET. I am very interested in JH, but never gave it much time until you went to the effort to start this thread.
Snoop - vouch for me!!!
Thanks and keep up the good work.
Quote from kernan:
Whoa! I did not mean your journal had less than adequate information. I apologize if it sounded that way.
I was originally confused by Watch List and Hot List because of the missing label, and when I read through the thread this morning (my first time here) you usually put the Hot List at the bottom - this time it was the middle. Now I know what I am looking at, and thanks for the clarification.
Regarding posting volume - I was simply suggesting posting it for the Hot List, so that would be for the six stocks today (you should also not kill yourself, and only post the DU method for the Hot List also!). My thoughts were that even if we did not all agree on the DU volume, we at least knew what you were looking at for purposes of analyzing the journal. If you don't want to - no harm, no foul.
For the record, I think this is a great journal - and one of the more productive ones on ET. I am very interested in JH, but never gave it much time until you went to the effort to start this thread.
Snoop - vouch for me!!!
Thanks and keep up the good work.
I apologize for the misunderstanding and I welcome your participation. Thank-you for your positive comments.
Allow me to clarify regarding Hot Lists vs Watch Lists. The Hot List of stocks comes from the highest ranking stocks in our three lists (sevens, ones and zeros). Jack Hershey teaches (in his stocktables.com method) to monitor the Hot List of stocks for dry up levels, and to trade these particular stocks. Due to a lack of trading signals appearing from the Hot List over the last year, I altered the methods Jack teaches to include the creation of a 'Final Universe List.' This list results from combining each daily Hot List into a master list. When a stock appears in the daily Hot List that does NOT appear in the Final Universe List, we add that stock. Currently, we have 33 stocks in the 'Final Universe List.' calculating Dry Up for these (Final Universe List) stocks creates the 'Watch List' containing stocks that currently have Dry Up Levels of Volume. In the past, using the Chart Script to calculate Dry Up Volume for the Daily Hot List has produced good results.
I hope the above accurately describes the differences between the methods used in the journal vs. the methods Jack Hershey teaches, as well as, provides clarification for your questions. Again, I apologize for the confusion.
- Spydertrader
The price for LIFC fell triggering our stop loss at $9.97 resulting in a 5% loss. HANS, on the other hand, continues to improve in price today - up another .45 over yesterday's close. ALDN exceeded both the DU5 and DU Cycle levels of Dry up this morning.
Price: $24.80
MACD: .1032
Stochastics: 76.4615
However, two things caused me to monitor the above trade closely for a possible early exit. First, the stochastics was barely above the 75 range. We like to see The Stochastic Indicator at 75 or higher. Also, the stochastic red line was above the green line in the quotetracker program I use for monitoring. This normally results in the trend not confirming. Second, the chart for ALDN (attached) has a narrow range resulting in a purchase price near the left side of the channel (a mistake we made before and wish to avoid in the future). Therefore, if price and volume improvement does not continue, we will exit the trade early.
- Spydertrader
Edit: I forgot to mention 400 shares @ 24.80
Price: $24.80
MACD: .1032
Stochastics: 76.4615
However, two things caused me to monitor the above trade closely for a possible early exit. First, the stochastics was barely above the 75 range. We like to see The Stochastic Indicator at 75 or higher. Also, the stochastic red line was above the green line in the quotetracker program I use for monitoring. This normally results in the trend not confirming. Second, the chart for ALDN (attached) has a narrow range resulting in a purchase price near the left side of the channel (a mistake we made before and wish to avoid in the future). Therefore, if price and volume improvement does not continue, we will exit the trade early.
- Spydertrader
Edit: I forgot to mention 400 shares @ 24.80
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