Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal

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Quote from makosgu:


The channel defines what's right and left. From what I've read, points 1 and 3 define the left side of the channel and thus point 2 is on the right side. Thus an R2L would be the price displaying a Right 2 Left traversal of the channel (the car bouncing off the right guard rail and heading towards what is believed to be the left guard rail). The channel itself is a form of the Interim Trend, also know as IT.
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Just for the record, this is incorrect. Points 1 and 3 are ALWAYS on the RIGHT side of the channel. Point 2 is always on the LEFT. A channel always begins with a R2L (right to left) traverse from pt 1 to pt 2, followed by a L2R traverse to point 3. When we have points 1,2 and 3 we can draw the channel. The convention is the same for both long and short channels.

example attached
 

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Speaking of shorts, Jack does NOT short equities. His philosophy is to go long on strong stocks only. I discussed this with him at length a couple of years ago (when we were in a strong bear market) and his comment was that weak stocks do not behave reliably. He also strongly advised against shorting the "strong" stocks.

My personal experience has been that this long only method works much better when the overall market is in an up trend (no surprise there!).
 
Quote from dkm:

Just for the record, this is incorrect. Points 1 and 3 are ALWAYS on the RIGHT side of the channel. Point 2 is always on the LEFT. A channel always begins with a R2L (right to left) traverse from pt 1 to pt 2, followed by a L2R traverse to point 3. When we have points 1,2 and 3 we can draw the channel. The convention is the same for both long and short channels.

example attached
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Thanks for the clarification. I understand correctly now.

G33M4K the Newb
 
NAVR made a run at hitting Dry Up Volume, and came close, but didn't quite make it to the levels required (see attached chart). Although price, MACD, and Stochastics all looked great, volume fell a little short. As a result, no trades for today.

Continuing to monitor HANS, ANIK and LIFC (as well as EVCI for SHORT educational purposes)

HANS - price continues to improve.
ANIK - has experienced a slight retracement, but is currently off the low of the day (nor did price trigger our stop loss)
LIFC - only slightly lower than our purchase price (.05)
EVCI - appears range bound (price .14 under where we opted NOT to trade)

- Spydertrader
 

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Quote from Spydertrader:

NAVR made a run at hitting Dry Up volume, and came close, but didn't quite make it to the levels required (see attached chart). Although price, MACD, and Stochastics all looked great, volume fell a little short. As a result, no trades for today.

Continuing to monitor HANS, ANIK and LIFC (as well as EVCI for SHORT educational purposes)

HANS - price continues to improve.
ANIK - has experienced a slight retracement, but is currently off the low of the day (nor did price trigger our stop loss)
LIFC - only slightly lower than our purchase price (.05)
EVCI - appears range bound (price .14 under where we opted NOT to trade)

- Spydertrader
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spydertrader - I know you have addressed this, but I would like you to reconsider posting the DU Volume and method for your daily list. Otherwise, we do not know what you are looking at for a trigger.

In this chart, it appears you are using the 50EMA? However, as you have documented there are several different methods you use - so, I do not think you always use what you ar using for this chart.

Also, you mentioned that you will be analyzing DU volume to see which is best. Posting what you are using here would only help, as you have all the people following this thread doing the same thing and giving you feedback.

All you would have to do is add two things to your final list for the day - volume, and method.

Think about it! Great journal.
 
Quote from kgharris:

ANIK crater. Was this the FBO I have heard so much about. How do you trade it?

Or, just a loser and move on to the next?
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Jack uses a different stop loss determination than we use for this journal (Jack terms his "Stop Offset Method"). I have used a 5% stop loss for the last year, and I continue that strategy in the journal. As a result, we take the loss and move on to another trade.

Losses happen. We expect them to occur. The important thing is to determine if the loss could have been avoided, or if the loss falls within our statistical parameters. Without thoroughly analyzing the entire amount of data, it appears ANIK simply failed to continue to break out (The fabled FBO).

Mark ANIK down as a loser on this trade (5%).

- Spydertrader

Edit: Actual stop loss filled at $14.36 for those keeping track
 
Quote from kgharris:

In this chart, it appears you are using the 50EMA? However, as you have documented there are several different methods you use - so, I do not think you always use what you ar using for this chart.
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Sorry for the confusion on the 50 EMA. The charting program I use to post charts has that 50 EMA line there by default. I can't remove it. At any rate, the EMA 50 line has nothing to do with the dry up calculations. I circled the volume bar to point out it was less than 1/3 of the volume occurring during the last break out. Again, sorry for the confusion.

I will attempt to put something together aiding in the Dry Up calculation process within the next day or so. For clarification, I do not currently use the DU1, DU2, DU3 TC200 equations I posted previously, but hope to add them to the evaluation process in the future.

Hope that helps.

- Spydertrader
 
After looking at ANIK again. I would have made the channel this way. Anybody can say this in hindsight. I will try to catch it next time.
 

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