Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal II

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Quote from dougcs:

As a followup to my comments re. using the derivitive of price velocity, I conducted a number of intraday trades today to see how it worked.

On a real down day, I was satisfied. Entry was based on several factors:

1. A high money velocity (first derivitive of price).
2. The second derivitive of price (acceleration) above 0.
3. The second derivitive of volume above 0.

Exit was taken when price acceleration went below 0.

I only traded stocks having a money velocity in the top 5 of my JH universe measured using 30 minute bars.

I also tried Jack's idea of trying for wash trades.

Results:

Wins 5
Losses 9

Avg win 3.5%
Avg Loss 0.35 %

Doug

ps-Since this is my first day, I messed up a couple and missed some nice ones near the end of the day such as ERS.
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Doug

How are you calculating the price derivative? Are you just using momentum (price[today] - price[today-x])? If so, what value do you use for x?

Thanks in advance.
 
I can't find a single earnings calendar that showed FORD (for example) reporting today. What sites show earnings calendars other than yahoo, reuters,earnings.com, zacks, MSN? Thanks
 
For many of the small and micro cap companies....there really isn't any good earnings calendar that I can find :(

IBD covers most every company though, so they are probably the best bet....but not free. Also, I don't know if IBD has a calendar for all the micro's, even though once the earnings come out IBD will cover them...just not sure if you can get a calendar heads up from IBD.
 
Quote from Clym:

I can't find a single earnings calendar that showed FORD (for example) reporting today. What sites show earnings calendars other than yahoo, reuters,earnings.com, zacks, MSN? Thanks
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Clearstation has had FORD listed to report earnings each day for over a week. It's just that they report it as being that particular day for many days running so you never know just when it will happen.

Clearstation seems to be pretty good about giving a heads up, but I can't find any related follow up info on that site. marketwatch.com and earnings.com have also been useful.

Hopefully this is helpful

Rick
 
5:51pm 02/02/06

Forward Industries quarterly income falls (FORD) By Ruth Mantell

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Forward Industries Inc. (FORD) after Thursday's closing bell said first-quarter net income was $774,000, or 10 cents a share, compared with $1.37 million, or 21 cents a share, during the year-earlier period. The designer of custom cases for cellular phones and home medical diagnostic equipment said quarterly revenue was $8.67 million, compared with $8.92 million last year.
  • Forward Industries Reports Fiscal First Quarter Results

    Forward Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:FORD), a designer and distributor of custom carrying case solutions, today announced results for its fiscal first quarter ended December 31, 2005.

    For the quarterly period ended December 31, 2005, net sales were $8.7 million compared to $8.9 million in the fiscal first quarter ended December 31, 2004. Cell phone product sales increased 2% to $5.7 million; diabetic case sales declined 13% to $2.1 million from $2.4 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2005. Sales of other carrying solutions were $800,000 for the quarter ended December 31, 2005, approximately even compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2005.

    Operating income was $1.2 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2006 compared to $1.8 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2005. Earnings per diluted share were $0.10 in the first quarter of fiscal 2006, calculated on 8.0 million weighted average shares outstanding, compared to $0.21 per diluted share in the same period of last year, calculated on 6.7 million weighted average shares outstanding.

    Mr. Ball commented, "Our sales and net income were in line with our updated guidance. Sales and gross profit were adversely affected by unit pricing pressure and shifts in product mix to lower priced items, particularly on our largest "in-box" program. Gross profit was further impacted by lower sales levels of diabetic products and higher operating costs at our Hong Kong facility. However, due to our relatively fixed cost structure, we held operating expenses at $1.5 million, or 17% as a percentage of sales in the quarter. The decline in our gross profit, combined with an increase in our effective tax rate, due primarily to higher United States-sourced income, resulted in net income of $0.8 million compared to $1.4 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2005.

    "Having said this, our first quarter results were quite strong in historical terms. However, because fiscal 2005 truly was an exceptional year in all respects, our quarterly results for fiscal 2006 face difficult year-over-year comparisons."

    Mr. Ball further stated, "The Company's financial position has never been stronger, with $18.2 million in cash, no long-term debt, and working capital of $23.9 million at December 31, 2005."

    The tables below set forth the Company's unaudited, condensed consolidated statements of income for the three-month periods ended December 31, 2005 and 2004, respectively, the unaudited, condensed consolidated balance sheet as of December 31, 2005, and the audited, consolidated balance sheet as of September 30, 2005 and are derived from the Company's unaudited, condensed consolidated financial statements included in its Form 10-QSB filed today with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Please refer to the Form 10-QSB for complete financial statements and further information regarding the Company's results of operations and financial condition relating to the three-month period ended December 31, 2005, as well as the Company's Form 10-KSB for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2005, for additional information.

    About Forward Industries

    Forward Industries, Inc. designs and distributes custom carrying case solutions primarily for cellular phones and home medical diagnostic equipment. The Company sells its products directly to original equipment manufacturers and also markets a line of Carry Solutions under the "Motorola" brand name. Forward's products can be viewed online at www.fwdinnovations.com and www.forwardindustries.com.

    Statements in this press release other than statements of historical fact are "forward-looking statements." Such statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, identified from time to time in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in any forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements represent the Company's judgment as of the date of the release. The Company disclaims, however, any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. FORWARD INDUSTRIES, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF INCOME (UNAUDITED) Three Months Ended December 31, ----------------------- 2005 2004 ----------- ----------- Net sales $8,670,359 $8,915,890 Cost of goods sold 6,026,062 5,685,795 ----------- ----------- Gross profit 2,644,297 3,230,095 ----------- ----------- Operating expenses: Selling 776,339 765,516 General and administrative 695,223 708,772 ----------- ----------- Total operating expenses 1,471,562 1,474,288 ----------- ----------- Income from operations 1,172,735 1,755,807 ----------- ----------- Other income: Interest income 151,272 13,307 Other (expense) income (16,843) 71,322 ----------- ----------- Total other income 134,429 84,629 ----------- ----------- Income before provision for income taxes 1,307,164 1,840,436 Provision for income taxes 532,674 475,400 ----------- ----------- Net income $ 774,490 $1,365,036 =========== =========== Net income per common and common equivalent share Basic $ 0.10 $ 0.22 =========== =========== Diluted $ 0.10 $ 0.21 =========== =========== Weighted average number of common and common equivalent shares outstanding Basic 7,838,422 6,247,405 =========== =========== Diluted 8,023,535 6,660,289 =========== =========== FORWARD INDUSTRIES, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS December 31, September 30, 2005 2005 ------------ ------------- ASSETS (Unaudited) ------ Current assets: Cash and cash equivalents $18,244,174 $15,291,739 Investments in marketable equity securities -- 75,034 Accounts receivable - net 6,939,880 12,708,684 Inventories 1,492,039 1,113,157 Prepaid expenses and other current assets 196,869 214,012 Deferred tax asset 203,747 215,647 ------------ ------------- Total current assets 27,076,709 29,618,273 Property, plant, and equipment - net 221,417 243,845 Other assets 44,467 44,467 ------------ ------------- TOTAL ASSETS $27,342,593 $29,906,585 ============ ============= LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY ------------------------------------ Current liabilities: Accounts payable $ 2,217,639 $ 5,159,020 Accrued expenses and other current liabilities 941,266 1,905,425 ------------ ------------- Total current liabilities 3,158,905 7,064,445 Commitments and contingencies Shareholders' equity: Preferred stock, 4,000,000 authorized shares, par value $.01; none issued -- -- Common stock, 40,000,000 authorized shares, par value $.01; 8,424,931 and 8,397,031 shares issued at December 31, 2005 and September 30, 2005, respectively (including 563,493 held in treasury) 84,249 83,970 Paid-in capital 15,287,951 14,721,172 Retained earnings 9,664,647 8,890,157 ------------ ------------- 25,036,847 23,695,299 Less: Cost of shares in treasury (853,159) (853,159) ------------ ------------- Total shareholders' equity 24,183,688 22,842,140 ------------ ------------- TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY $27,342,593 $29,906,585 ============ =============

    SOURCE: Forward Industries, Inc. Forward Industries, Inc. Jerome E. Ball, CEO, 954-419-9544 or Investor Relations Counsel The Equity Group Inc. Lauren Till, 212-836-9610 Ltill@equityny.com www.theequitygroup.com

Quote from rickylc:

Clearstation has had FORD listed to report earnings each day for over a week. It's just that they report it as being that particular day for many days running so you never know just when it will happen.

Clearstation seems to be pretty good about giving a heads up, but I can't find any related follow up info on that site. marketwatch.com and earnings.com have also been useful.

Hopefully this is helpful

Rick
More...
 
Quote from svrz:

Doug

How are you calculating the price derivative? Are you just using momentum (price[today] - price[today-x])? If so, what value do you use for x?

Thanks in advance.
More...

I'm trying different ways.

For the results I posted I used this formulation:

First derivitive:
X = Factor*100*(c[current bar] - c[one bar ago]) / c[one bar ago]).

Factor = 390/barinterval

EG-for a 15 minute chart Factor = 26.
I use this to normalize price velocity to a daily basis.

Second derivitive (smoothed) = T3 Average of X - X[1]

I am using a 6bar lookback and a Vfactor of 0.7 for the T3 smoothing. I like Tillson's T3 average, but by no means do I expect it to be the best, just the first smoothing method I've tried.

More info on T3:
http://www.fmlabs.com/reference/default.htm?url=T3.htm

Doug
 
My dry up list for Friday, Feb 3rd, 2006:

FORD, IIJI, MTEX, PETS

And after eyeballing and looking at their daily avg volume %, I also consider GROW to be in DU.
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

I recall Jack's formulae containing two different equations for gapping stocks (one for 5% and one for 10%). Jack scanned his "Universe" of stocks for such equities each day. In my experience (prior to posting in Journal One), avoiding these equities provided better returns. However, a trader in Journal One (who's name escapes me at this moment) pointed out differences existing between those gapped stocks which had a greater propensity to fill and those that did not.

- Spydertrader
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FORD is one of those gapping stocks. Down 22% afterhours.
 
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