Such extreme price action provides yet another example of why we avoid holding equities overnight when the company plans to report earnings.
- Spydertrader
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Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal II
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Such extreme price action provides yet another example of why we avoid holding equities overnight when the company plans to report earnings.
- Spydertrader
Quote from WilliamV:
My dry up list for Friday, Feb 3rd, 2006:
FORD, IIJI, MTEX, PETS
And after eyeballing and looking at their daily avg volume %, I also consider GROW to be in DU.
Yup. I had those four as well. Although, FORD doesn't look too healthy from the overnight numbers. I also plan to keep a watchful eye on GROW, as well as, CUTR PWEI and HANS.
- Spydertrader
Quote from thenewguy:
Cramer mentioned LIFC on his show today, I was wondering what everyone's take is on this.
I don't watch Cramer's Show, but hear he has recommended several of the stocks we follow during his various broadcasts (I usually hear about it after the fact). I can tell you it is awfully nice to see such high volume pour into a stock after entering into a position. However, such hugh influxes of volume often skew our DU --> FRV --> Peak calculations playing havoc with our ability to anticipate 'normal' price improvement. In addition, Cramer's followers don't often have the conviction required to hold across several days once a stock he recommends begins to head south. In the case of LIFC, we might see Cramer's Faders out muscle the Followers creating a classic gap and fill (or gap and partial fill) especially if the overall market remains soft. I believe you correctly provided the appropriate watchword when it comes to trading an equity after it receives a Cramer blessing: Caution. Remaining cautious with respect to LIFC appears to be the smart play as well.
Good Trading to you all.
- Spydertrader
Quote from dougcs:
Agree on your adds to the FU.
I'm showing the same stocks on my list for Monday plus I also have NGPS.
A few of these have a high short interest ratio (SIR): shares short/float:
BOOM 54%
JMDT 31%
ELOS 19%
So far in my very limited amount and statistically meaningless testing of the high SIR stocks vs ones with low SIR, the high SIRs are doing better. But I'll wait til I have 25 trades of the high SIRs before I publish my results.
DS
Hi Dougcs
Have you had positive results using the short interest ratio?
Quote from ScottD:
In practice, are some of you able to do an 8-5 day job and still trade this system?
I started out trading this system while working full time. Somewhere within the many pages of Journal One, I described the set up I used for monitoring and placing trades while at work. However, I spent many a night using a market simulator to insure I could profitably trade the system on paper, before I used real money. Rushtrade used to have demo software (I think they still do) that contained 24 hour old market data (played on a loop). I used their platform to create a real time feel each night rather than looking back at a chart and saying to myself, "Oh, for sure I would have entered here." I avoided listening to any 'market news' throughout the workday, then I used the Rushtrade demo to simulate a real market day.
- Spydertrader
Quote from gooch87:
Hi Dougcs
Have you had positive results using the short interest ratio?
Gooch,
I've not had enough trades, 12 so far, to see anything yet. So far, they do a bit better than those that have low SIR. These trades all came from my JH universe so that is not a surprise.
I now have a universe of high SIR stocks that are not in my JH Universe and plan to see how they do. I just started this on Tuesday and am still working out the bugs.
Doug
ps-I know a Johnny Gooch from Texas, any relation?
Quote from dougcs:
I'm trying different ways.
For the results I posted I used this formulation:
First derivitive:
X = Factor*100*(c[current bar] - c[one bar ago]) / c[one bar ago]).
Factor = 390/barinterval
EG-for a 15 minute chart Factor = 26.
I use this to normalize price velocity to a daily basis.
Second derivitive (smoothed) = T3 Average of X - X[1]
I am using a 6bar lookback and a Vfactor of 0.7 for the T3 smoothing. I like Tillson's T3 average, but by no means do I expect it to be the best, just the first smoothing method I've tried.
More info on T3:
http://www.fmlabs.com/reference/default.htm?url=T3.htm
Doug
Doug
Thank you very much for the explanation. I attempted to duplicate your computational efforts in WL. Here is a 30 minute chart of GROW which shows the first pane as the first derivative of price, seond pane as the second derivative of price and the third pane as the second derivative of volume.
Is this picture close to what you have?
Thanks again.
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Curious how you guys would react to this.
I have ASEI on a secondary watch list. It has the required EPS/RS and the right float but isn't on our primary universe because it has only gone up 4 times (not 5) and because it is over $50.
Anyway, it was in dryup yesterday so I had it on my screen. I liked the general look of the chart because you have a desending triangle pattern (chart attached) and all of the important moving averages just below it.
And, for what its worth the typical volume during any 15 minute period is about 4000 or 5000 shares.
Anyway, it is still in my list today from yesterday and its bouncing around a bit but nothing special price or volume-wise and then BAM someone buys 150,000 shares in one transaction, pushing the price over the downtrending channel line and of course making volume pick up.
Being a relatively new trader I don't quite now how to react. Is it likely a good thing and I should jump in due to likely followthrough even though my price might be a bit higher. Or is it someone making a play to cause this reaction who is looking for a price increase (now up about $1 since my guess of their average price) and then who will dump shares back later in the day driving the price down.
Was curious what typically happens in this scenario. it is not like a typical volume chart where you see lots of volume over many bars, although it has picked up since this buy.
Thanks
I have ASEI on a secondary watch list. It has the required EPS/RS and the right float but isn't on our primary universe because it has only gone up 4 times (not 5) and because it is over $50.
Anyway, it was in dryup yesterday so I had it on my screen. I liked the general look of the chart because you have a desending triangle pattern (chart attached) and all of the important moving averages just below it.
And, for what its worth the typical volume during any 15 minute period is about 4000 or 5000 shares.
Anyway, it is still in my list today from yesterday and its bouncing around a bit but nothing special price or volume-wise and then BAM someone buys 150,000 shares in one transaction, pushing the price over the downtrending channel line and of course making volume pick up.
Being a relatively new trader I don't quite now how to react. Is it likely a good thing and I should jump in due to likely followthrough even though my price might be a bit higher. Or is it someone making a play to cause this reaction who is looking for a price increase (now up about $1 since my guess of their average price) and then who will dump shares back later in the day driving the price down.
Was curious what typically happens in this scenario. it is not like a typical volume chart where you see lots of volume over many bars, although it has picked up since this buy.
Thanks
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