Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal II

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Quote from martys:

Yahoo quarter is also positive for the quarter but negative for the annual:
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Therein lies the rub. QCharts must use yearly EPS data. You could always add it, and monitor to see how well NURO correlates with our current methods. In other words, papertrade NURO until you have confidence the stock will perform as expected. I did the same thing with NTRI.

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from martys:

Should we be looking at quarterly EPS or annual EPS? Thanks.

I think that is where the difference coming from.
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I agree with you. The differences resulted from quarterly vs yearly EPS data. I have personally always used yearly data. However, since Stocktables.com has it ranked at 81 (as mark1 pointed out), go with it and add it in.

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

I agree with you. The differences resulted from quarterly vs yearly EPS data. I have personally always used yearly data. However, since Stocktables.com has it ranked at 81 (as mark1 pointed out), go with it and add it in.

- Spydertrader
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Thanks.

Just to let everybody know, the java program I posted uses quarterly EPS from clearstation.com. I might change that for the next version.
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

If your analysis suggests a stock (or several stocks) should move lower in price (or not at all), and those particular stocks gap and run in the opposite direction, then I suggest it does count.



No you didn't. I have quoted you directly.



Perhaps, you could provide more clarity in future contributions.



Price Action Analysis which involves some mysterious date in the future, rather than, today's Watch List doesn't really provide much direction now does it?



When you 'predict' a lower price, and the price trades higher, you should not expect to receive a 'correct' score for that prediction.



Thank-you again, for providing an example of what not to do when trading these methods. Following your analysis would have cost people money today. Perhaps accuracy isn't a top priority in your journal, but here, we run a much tighter ship. In the real world, inaccurate predictions have consequences. Those consequences may involve significant loss of capital. I suggest you refrain from dispensing 'price action' advice in this Journal until you can at least maintain an accuracy level above that of a coin flip.

Again, continued success on your trading career and with your Journal.

- Spydertrader
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I'm sorry I have to say something. No one can predict what a stock will do tomorrow consistently....except .......insiders who know something.

I believe Dennis Ehkhart (bad spelling) said " don't worry about where the trade is going....worry about what you will do when it gets there." I would say this is because we don't know where it's going to go
but we can plan what to do when things happen, hopefully profitably. By the way, I don't believe in psychics either.
 
on 11/30/05 Richardson 54 commented:

I am one of the lurkers who have been monitoring Spytrader's posts for a couple of months while undergoing the requisite training (reviewing Journals I and II). I stumbled upon the thread while testing scripts on the Wealth-Lab site.

That said, I'd like to add a possible corollary to the methodology.

In monitoring the hot list this morning I noticed that BOOM's volume really began to head north yesterday in the final hour of trading. In effect, if the last hour of trading shows increased volume and the beginning of the current day's trading shows the same level of increasing volume (all other indicators being positive) then I'd suggest that the lower band was hit just prior to the observed "boom" in BOOM this morning.

Using that calculus, I dove into the buy fifteen minutes ahead of the stampede.

My suggestion is that we begin to observe the last hour of the previous day to see if the rules might be modified to include that action in the buy determination.
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I currently don't have the ability to do this or the following idea either due to my day job and my company's desire to do some work :cool: , but...

Would it be an extension of the corrollary above to suggest that a 2 hour rolling window of volume be monitored for BO volume levels (LB volume or pro-rata FRV) and then the subsequent 6.5 hour period be monitored for the FRV confirmation? All other factors of the system reman the same including quality control and stochastic/MACD Histogram confirmation.

The reason I make the suggestion is 1) it should provide more signals and 2) I guess it would confirm or refute the selection the time period of the first 2 hours in the morning for checking BO volume (or the last part of the day + the morning suggested by Richardson54) opposed to an arbitrary time period during the day, for which I think Jack originally designed the system. He suggested EOD and/or intraday trading in many of his writings

Thought I'd throw that out there for debate and for the sake of possibility. I also have no way of checking it out, but I'd like to see the answer if there are any brave souls wanting to try it for real or on paper.

- ace
 
Goooood morning Vietnam!! Err I mean Thailand..well actualy here is night ... anyway have a great day everyone and take a look at our little friend BOOM, going straight to the stars :p
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

I agree with you. The differences resulted from quarterly vs yearly EPS data. I have personally always used yearly data. However, since Stocktables.com has it ranked at 81 (as mark1 pointed out), go with it and add it in.

- Spydertrader
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After sleeping on this, I am pretty sure I should really use annual EPS data for the filter because it looks like Stocktables.com have already used quarterly EPS for the EPS ranking therefore it makes no sense to filter the stock twice with the "same" filter. The Stocktables.com EPS ranking will get the stocks showing good recent quarter profitability. The yearly EPS filter will filter out stocks that has not shown profit for one year. I will start writing the version 2 of my Java program this weekend to correct this. It will include a GUI front end, a news reader SpyderTrader recently posted, also will flag for upcoming earnings when you input a list of stocks.
 
Doug, you said you want to add some kind of short interest ratio vs float (short ratio/float??) comparison. Let me know how do you define extreme value for that and I will flag it.

P.S. I should have remembered what you said about BOOM and not sell it at the open (wait for a short squeeze). The memories just come back to me. I also remember BOOM and NTRI recently had similar patterns.... consolidate into a tight range before taking off (Of course it can go both way. It's a bet.)
 
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