Quote from cipherscribe:
I don't mean to harp on about DU being a "single" number, but I am only a beginner, and when I scan for DU, and make decisions based on DU, I am ideally interested in following the "beginner" strategy from Journal I. I'd like to kick arse with that before moving onto other types of trading, like unusual volume.
I understand your concerns, but 'Dry Up Volume'
isn't a single number. Believe me, I conducted an exhaustive search and experimentation program looking for the
one formula which would unlock the key to Dry Up Volume calculation. No such formula exists. Since we use statistics to capture 98% of the area under the bell curve, it only stands to reason we should see an error now and then (say 2% of the time). As such, with only a 9000 share difference between the cutoff, some individuals may have said, "Oh what the hell, I'll just add it." In addition, variances between data source providers, as well as, time of data updates may have yielded slightly different volume calculations for various people. We have seen such circumstances appear many times in the past - even among the same data providers based on different trader update times.
Quote from cipherscribe:
So should I follow the stocks that the dryup script tells me as DU, or should I then also "eyeball" for DU on the equities chartscript and make sure the chart is green with volume levels below UBDU? (Before I then move on and eradicate JOBS altogether because of the existing position within the channel 
)
Eyeballing charts does assist you with your trading. If you have the skill to do so, I recommend following this plan - review each chart for volume levels looking for 'ambient level' volume. You may catch a trade or two, or you might find doing so wastes time. 'Eyeballing' volume wasn't a skill I had in the beginning (probably a good thing too, or else I might not have made so many chartcripts
), but Jack uses eyeballing to determine Dry Up Volume, and it works for him.
Or you could simply say, "I didn't have that one" and move on. Another train should arrive shortly for you to catch. I have seen a number of trades posted here where I didn't even have the
symbol in my Universe of stocks. No problem. I have seen stocks traded and posted that I did
not have in Dry Up - yet someone else did. Again, no worries. Far too many variances exist for me to fret over it, and far too many opportunities present themselves over time for me to worry about a handful of trades in the course of a trading year.
The important things is this: Did you follow the methodology correctly? If you did, then a data variance caused the missed trade, or someone decided to bend the rule a little to include one more opportunity. We have to draw the line somewhere, and in the case of JOBS, we just happened to draw the line so close, it may not have been clear as to which side of the line JOBS fell. Over time, these things have a way of always evening out in the wash.
Whichever you decide to do (stick with only using the green screen or eyeball looking for additional opportunities), as long as you remain consistant, you should continue to find success.
I hope you find the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
