Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal II

[Spydertrader]

Quote from Penfold:

In regard to ATHR and your exit earlier today: According to the system (as I have been understanding it), if you don't see the continuing volume sustain (or grow), aren't you supposed to exit the trade? So your initial decision to exit was correct, and any other decision is not consistant?

You correctly understand the fundamentals behind the Hershey Methodology. Unfortunately, I did not base my decision to exit on volume (growing or otherwise). I expected the pullback in price off the initial run up, but when price failed to resume its trend higher within my anticipated timeframe, I decided to exit. I should have given ATHR more time to resume, or at least, waited until price broke down through support, before exiting the trade. I could then have added on shares if (when) price broke higher through the daily high, or safely exited with a loss if price broke down through support. In other words, I rushed the decision. Remaining patient during the ENER trade kept me in the trade until the massive breakout occurred. Lack of patience on the ATHR trade cost me some profits today. Lesson learned.

- Spydertrader

 

[4XIS4U]

Quote from chapper:

FMD anyone? It signaled, ran up, and pulled back some... any thoughts?

chapper - I currently have a position on it... keeping a tight stop stop.

 

[chapper]

Quote from Spydertrader:
Price, Volume, MACD and Stochastics: all headed south at the moment. Attempting to catch a falling knife can often cause significant pain. FMD hasn't acted right since the huge run up on news a few weeks ago. Be careful.
- Spydertrader

So, this is something to monitor for confirmation of the trade either pre or post entry? It makes sense... in this case I was pre-entry, I watched at FMD run up almost a point, only to watch a pull back. This would be a headfake. Is this something that is more significant on the first day the position is entered? Multi-day positions surely fluctuate somewhat with respect to Price, volume and Stochs (obvoiusly assuming they don't completely breakdown and hit a stop)

Now that I compare the charts for FMD, IVAC and ATHR... the differences are obvious. Stochs remained strong and price was stable even with the expected cyclical selling.

I guess my question surrounds the concept of a second chance when chasing a signal. I didn't enter FMD, b/c I wanted confirmation, and things broke down. If it stabilizes and turns back, is that a positive sign?

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from chapper:

I guess my question surrounds the concept of a second chance when chasing a signal. I didn't enter FMD, b/c I wanted confirmation, and things broke down. If it stabilizes and turns back, is that a positive sign?

I don't chase a signal. If I miss an entry, I wait for the next train. I may enter on a pullback in price, if the pullback doesn't occur to far along into a price run. Otherwise, chasing an entry signal skews the risk to reward ratios outside of my optimal range. With respect to intra-day price fluctuations, I don't monitor the MACD and Stochastics looking for an exit. Price and Volume (on a daily chart) indicate the location for the best exists. By drawing channel lines for both intraday and daily charts, one can 'see' how price and volume move a stock through a natural cycle. (See Jack's Jokari Window attachment).

Hope that helps.

- Spydertrader

 

[Spydertrader]

So how did everybody do today?

- Spydertrader

 

[mischief]

A good night (day).

Long SIMO@ 14.25, long NGAS @ 8.62.

I also had signals on HANS @ 129.4, FMCN @ 64, FMD @ 44.74 and NDAQ @ 42.87.

These weren't taken due to the position sizing part of my auto-trading script, but all would not have been stopped out.

 

[chapper]

I sat on the sidelines again today. I saw signals in FMD, IVAC (recent add to my FU) and I followed Spyder's ATHR trade. All of which turned out pretty well.

 

[dougcs]

Quote from Spydertrader:

So how did everybody do today?

- Spydertrader

My all time best day in over 10 years trading. Gives credence to the saying, "never confuse genius with a bull market" even if it is only one day.

The best trade, a Rocket, was long EZPW on the morning of 4/17 at 32.49 and exited this afternoon at 37.92 for a 17% gain.

All my trades were Jack H. type trades: regular equity, Bruno's and Rockets.



Doug

 

[Spydertrader]

Nice to see people doing so well. Keep up the great work everyone.

- Spydertrader

 

[chapper]

OK, here is what I have in Dry Up today:

BNT CKCM CNTF FORD GROW MEK NWRE REDF SFCC TASR TSCM

Anyone else have any other "gems"

Futures are up big after yesterdays Fed signal... will be an interesting day.