thanks for the pic. agreed trans appear to be rolling over. AAPL and Ralph L. may be the main stocks holding the market up lol. I looked at the TVIX vol, interesting observation. Looks like a new instrument, but i cant see volume increase on the way down on the last volatility contraction scenario. It was after the TVIX bottomed.
SPX/ES Market Outlook
- Thread starter EliteThink
- Start date
thanks for the pic. agreed trans appear to be rolling over. AAPL and Ralph L. may be the main stocks holding the market up lol. I looked at the TVIX vol, interesting observation. Looks like a new instrument, but i cant see volume increase on the way down on the last volatility contraction scenario. It was after the TVIX bottomed.
Agreed. Trans was the leading instrument, of course $100 oil doesn't help its cause.
ES/SPX hasn't had a down day where it closed at the low this year. It will be surprising, yet welcomed, to see it today. AAPL may have reached a psychological level at 500, and tech is giving us a courtesy pullback. The metals are declining off of resistance. Today's low is still above the 2/3/12 RTH low for the spy, which was a gap up day. Until that breaks, filling the gap is not even in the cards. Best guess for opex friday is 1350. Finally, I would be suprised if the people of Greece approved the impositions by the German government and the rest of the union. The effects, if this occurs, of this, will have to be seen at the ES open on Sunday.
ES/SPX hasn't had a down day where it closed at the low this year. It will be surprising, yet welcomed, to see it today. AAPL may have reached a psychological level at 500, and tech is giving us a courtesy pullback. The metals are declining off of resistance. Today's low is still above the 2/3/12 RTH low for the spy, which was a gap up day. Until that breaks, filling the gap is not even in the cards. Best guess for opex friday is 1350. Finally, I would be suprised if the people of Greece approved the impositions by the German government and the rest of the union. The effects, if this occurs, of this, will have to be seen at the ES open on Sunday.
Mondayâs move was eluded to in the last few minutes of the ES session on Friday with a quick spike up. Greece apparently has been able to convince buyers the situation is better, resulting in todayâs gap up. Half the gap was quickly filled, and thus far, the highs of the session have been targeted since. Thursdayâs high appears to be holding so far. The levels of significant resistance are well known. But with AAPL going parabolic, and still being called undervalued, the move higher can continue. Still, with commodities up, which translates to fixed costs going up, one would think the market would not be so enthused. The VIX was up considerably Friday, some of that is being given up toa, but not as much as one might think. Looking for a cash close this week of about 1342.
Good Trading.
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1376.55, Fibonacci 100.0% projection 10/11 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1354.32, high of 2/9/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1349.31, Gann 87.5% projection 10/11 range
1300.49, low of 1/30/2012
1277.58, low of 1/13/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.62, 200-day SMA
1257.46, low of 12/30/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1255.22, high of 12/22/2011
1248.64, low of 12/29/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1231.04, high of 12/16/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/11
1215.20, low of 12/16/11
1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/11
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
S&R source: Robert Colby
Good Trading.
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1376.55, Fibonacci 100.0% projection 10/11 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1354.32, high of 2/9/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1349.31, Gann 87.5% projection 10/11 range
1300.49, low of 1/30/2012
1277.58, low of 1/13/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.62, 200-day SMA
1257.46, low of 12/30/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1255.22, high of 12/22/2011
1248.64, low of 12/29/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1231.04, high of 12/16/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/11
1215.20, low of 12/16/11
1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/11
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
S&R source: Robert Colby
nailed it, the damage to personal wealth with these rates is striking.
Quote from sonnydays:
post back here @999.99
maybe even 800, we'll see
lol, see you there.
With down days appearing to be outlawed, the market erased losses in a mere 30 minutes yesterday. Overnight, the rally continued with the ES hitting a new high for the year. The ticker is very responsive to news to the upside, yet shirks off negative news events. In this brief morning, spx has hit a new yearly high, likely soon to be eclipsed. DJ30 and Trans are negative which should be of note. Tech, however continues to march on into opex, as well as commodities. How higher prices for the consumer translates into a higher market is for the market to deduce. ES is well off the overnight high, if that high is taken out, it is likely straight to spx 1370.
Yet another ES/SPX 2012 high for the markets going into opex day, as well as approaching 52 week highs. SPX is nearly 300 points off the Oct low, and 200 points from the December low. DJ30 continues to move towards 13,000, and will most likely test it, and then some, allowing the spx to test the 1370 high of 2011. DJTrans has made an impressive 2 day move, and may no longer appear to be rolling over at this point, it remains to be seen. Metals have appeared to have stabilized for now, yet crude continues to move higher. Tech, so far, is not leading as much as recently, AAPL is taking a small breather, but MSFT looks like it may be finally waking up. We could be witnessing the awaking of a sleeping giant, if MSFT continues its move, this after a decade of sideways movement. Markets are in the midst of major high points, and therefore, resistance, and could roll over any time. Support zones are now 1280-1300, with several minor support zones in between. However, the safe bet is to stay with the trend and with the channel.
Channel remains in tact.