SPX/ES Market Outlook

Quote from tycoonman:

ET,

In a market like this, how would you play the ES?

I, like most day-traders here, scalp for half a point to a point. But like your projections and my analysis on time, momentum, and price, I am very convinced that the market has reached it's highest-highs for the year.

My question is this, how would I go about taking most advantage of the current situation being a scalper? Change up the game plan and short 10 contracts till the next pullback? Let it get to expiration and liquidate?

What would you do in the current market as a futures trader?
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The vast experience here is welcome to chime in.

i'm under the opinion one should stay with the trend until the market says the trend could be over. This is usually signified by a break in the oppositive side of the channel. I don't have much to add in terms of scalping or daytrading. Right now i would be slightly and cautiously long, expecting a reversal shortly. I actually think, with an election year, the highs of the last year could be tested.

The market decides if bad news is bad, and good new is good.
 
Here is some relevent SPX information for your info:

Support/Resistance Levels Price Key Turning Points
14 Day RSI at 80% 1,371.40
52 Week High 1,370.58
1,323.22 14 Day %k Stochastic Stalls
1,322.86 3-10 Day MACD Oscillator Stalls
4 Week High & 13 Week High 1,322.28
Pivot Point 2nd Level Resistance 1,322.12
14 Day RSI at 70% 1,320.44
1,319.93 14 Day %d Stochastic Stalls
Pivot Point 1st Level Resistance 1,318.39
Current Price 1,314.65 Current Price
1,312.22 Pivot Point
1,310.88 14-3 Day Raw Stochastic at 80%
Pivot Point 1st Level Support 1,308.49
1,305.85 Price Crosses 9 Day Moving Average
1,305.17 14-3 Day Raw Stochastic at 70%
Pivot Point 2nd Level Support 1,302.32
1,294.15 38.2% Retracement from 4 Week High
1,293.77 14-3 Day Raw Stochastic at 50%
1,292.70 3-10-16 Day MACD Moving Average Stalls
1,292.48 Price Crosses 18 Day Moving Average Stalls
1,290.94 Price Crosses 18 Day Moving Average
1,285.46 50% Retracement from 4 Week High/Low
1,282.37 14-3 Day Raw Stochastic at 30%
1,279.67 14 Day RSI at 50%
1,276.77 38.2% Retracement from 4 Week Low
1,276.66 14-3 Day Raw Stochastic at 20%
1,260.76 Price Crosses 40 Day Moving Average
1,259.78 38.2% Retracement from 13 Week High
1,257.58 38.2% Retracement from 52 Week High
1,249.64 Price Crosses 9 Day Moving Average Stalls
4 Week Low 1,248.64
1,240.47 50% Retracement from 13 Week High/Low
1,222.68 50% Retracement from 52 Week High/Low
1,221.16 38.2% Retracement from 13 Week Low
14 Day RSI at 30% 1,192.25
1,187.77 38.2% Retracement from 52 Week Low
1,158.67 Price Crosses 40 Day Moving Average Stalls
13 Week Low 1,158.66
14 Day RSI at 20% 1,082.98
52 Week Low 1,074.77
1,052.28 Price Crosses 9-18 Day Moving Average
795.32 Price Crosses 9-40 Day Moving Average
328.13 Price Crosses 18-40 Day Moving Average
 
Statistics did hold, 6th day after a 5 day run up was down, slightly. Today is more of the same though with buyers meeting any weakness and weekly highs being approached. Vix hit a new multi month low and atr5 is now under 10 on the SPX. Although most U.S. markets are up, as well as metals, tech is leading, breaking into new territory, Apple is a phenom. Buyers are there for the dips for now, and the pull back estimated for this friday will likely not materialize. Good trading.
 
More of the same today, SPX continues to ride the upper range of it channel. Metals and Crude received their pop from the Fed yesterday as well. The first line of real resitance is about 1343. However, DJ30 and other barometers are in resistance zones. At today's high, SPX was 133 points off the December low, quite a move, and still more may be transpiring.
 

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Yesterday was the most weakness we've seen in a while in SPX. After an impressive run up early in the day, SPX sold off into the rest of the session, and has continued for the first half of today's session. Yesterday's range was the largest we have seen for a while, pushing the atr5 up to nearly 14 points. Interestingly, the VIX has remained under 19, even while SPX is 20 points off its high, signifying very little fear. While DJ30 (which is close to a multi year high) and SPX are off for the day and remain in a channel, DJTrans are heading higher and could be signifying strength next week. Best guess for price next Friday is 1330, assuming the channel holds.

Have a great weekend.
 
I am mildly bullish for the short term for the next few weeks but particularly for next week as I trade the weeklies. Volume is still low with a low vix. The market seems to be a bunch of short sellers feeding on each other to generate the buys and sells with enough instutitional sellers feeding some stocks to take some profits. Guess I'll wait for a correction/pullback before this changes.

For next week, Feb 1 weekly, I traded some SPX 1295/1300 bull put spreads for $1.15. Next week I'll adjust them if necessary. Sometime next week after I get a good idea where the top is, I'll finish these trades off with some bear calls to complete iron condors.
 
I just started trading in October with the monthlies. Then started the weeklies in the 2nd week of November. Did well till right before Christmas when I followed the cycler's projection and the market went the other way which wiped out about 4/5 of my earnings. I'm starting back up again with the earnings.
 
Although the SPY’s ascent is still in tact, it is showing signs of slowing, and the momentum is fracturing. The 50dma is in the range of crossing the 200dma, which is long term bullish. However, in the short term, some sideways action is likely as the market attempts to consolidate some of the gains of the last few months. The VIX is significantly low, which is also representative of a market running out of momentum. That being said, the Golden Cross technical formation (as opposed to death cross), which is the 50dma crossing over the 200dma, is taking place, and this could be another bullish sign for the remainder of the year.
 
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