The main story for the a.m. is the divergence between dj30 and spx. Comp, ndx are down yet sox is up. gld is flatlilning yet slv is climbing. Notably, there was not an overnight new high set in the ES. SPX is down for the session, but by only 1/3rd of an atr5. DJ30 is in striking distance of 2011 highs and may make one more final push to test the highs. Notably, the VIX dropped below 20 yesterday and is close to a multi month low today, despite the SPX being down. Historically, when fear reaches levels this low, a market top is not far away. Currently, the market is 2 points off the predicted friday close of 1311 for SPX. Last Friday's low to yesterday's high was a move of nearly 40 points, a move of 3 atr5. A pull back and retracement is rational, if only rationality could be imposed on a market. Best guess for next Friday after 3 up weeks in a row: 1288. Have a great weekend.
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SPX/ES Market Outlook
- Thread starter EliteThink
- Start date
Quote from EliteThink:
The main story for the a.m. is the divergence between dj30 and spx. Comp, ndx are down yet sox is up. gld is flatlilning yet slv is climbing. Notably, there was not an overnight new high set in the ES. SPX is down for the session, but by only 1/3rd of an atr5. DJ30 is in striking distance of 2011 highs and may make one more final push to test the highs. Notably, the VIX dropped below 20 yesterday and is close to a multi month low today, despite the SPX being down. Historically, when fear reaches levels this low, a market top is not far away. Currently, the market is 2 points off the predicted friday close of 1311 for SPX. Last Friday's low to yesterday's high was a move of nearly 40 points, a move of 3 atr5. A pull back and retracement is rational, if only rationality could be imposed on a market. Best guess for next Friday after 3 up weeks in a row: 1288. Have a great weekend.
Agree I think this is the short term top,
As you can see the Nasdaq futures continious contract Double topped from this summers highs as this could show some pause.
Information on Greece this weekend will probably set the tone going into next week. If the news is indeed negative how convienent that it occours right at primary trendline resistance.
Elite Trader your target is spot on.
Levels to watch below...
Break of 1290, then 1280 test, the most likley 1260.
Bought FEB VIX 22 calls today.
Quote from e92335i08:
Agree I think this is the short term top,
As you can see the Nasdaq futures continious contract Double topped from this summers highs as this could show some pause.
Information on Greece this weekend will probably set the tone going into next week. If the news is indeed negative how convienent that it occours right at primary trendline resistance.
Elite Trader your target is spot on.
Levels to watch below...
Break of 1290, then 1280 test, the most likley 1260.
Bought FEB VIX 22 calls today.
Thanks for the input. Please keep us posted on your vix trade, you could see some nice gamma gearing.
Sorry to beat a dead horse, but, yet another move higher overnight, except this move was punctuated by a move higher during the day session, now evaporated of course. A positive day would make the second string of 5 up days in a row since the December low. Yet even with a down day today, one could count on one hand the number of down days over the last 40 calendar days.
The markets appeared to be frothing at the mouth to get DJ30 to mid 2011 highs of 12750, and it did so and then some. A pull back is in the cards, âjust depends on how far exuberance wants to stretch the market. Years of observations have indicated to me, when moves up like this occur, they stall after a steeping pitch in the slope. Last weeks angle of ascent for the DJ30 is steeper than the angle of ascent from the Dec lows to last week. Often after the steepening pitch, which I view as a sign of the last few hold outs diving into the market, the move lower, or sideways, begins.
For some reason earnings are perceived as going well, and Euro fears have temporarily subsided. With options rebalancing, and the Febs moving to front the month, the vix is up slightly. Yet Gold and Silver are staging a recovery, typically a sign of fear. In my view this leaves us with an overextended market with signs of fractures in the move up. Standing by the best guess of 1288 by Friday for now. Good trading.
The markets appeared to be frothing at the mouth to get DJ30 to mid 2011 highs of 12750, and it did so and then some. A pull back is in the cards, âjust depends on how far exuberance wants to stretch the market. Years of observations have indicated to me, when moves up like this occur, they stall after a steeping pitch in the slope. Last weeks angle of ascent for the DJ30 is steeper than the angle of ascent from the Dec lows to last week. Often after the steepening pitch, which I view as a sign of the last few hold outs diving into the market, the move lower, or sideways, begins.
For some reason earnings are perceived as going well, and Euro fears have temporarily subsided. With options rebalancing, and the Febs moving to front the month, the vix is up slightly. Yet Gold and Silver are staging a recovery, typically a sign of fear. In my view this leaves us with an overextended market with signs of fractures in the move up. Standing by the best guess of 1288 by Friday for now. Good trading.
I'd concur ET. I've been placing bear call spreads on the spx and the rut for this week. The cycler is prediciting the s&p to remain very overextended for his future forecast but as usual I believe he is wrong. I'm banking on the s&p to pull back this week. This is the first time in the 268 year history of the s&p that it has closed higher for 13 straight days. I don't see that as sustainable for another week. My disclaimer is that my forecast is from a newbie. Right now the spx is at 1314.17 down 1.21.
'Had to close short calls today. You know that's likely the top.
While not guaranteed, 5 up days in a row for the spx, of which yesterday was the fifth by a hair, will statistically bring a negative day on the sixth. The day opened with a gap lower, which has been virtually filled at this point. I would say the gap closure will continue into a positive day, but the important ES level of 1305 was broken to the downside. This could possibly be the first major technical fracture of this run up, next would have to be a breach of the 10 dma, and the lower part of this channel. Many markets, from crude, to metals, to the benchmarks, are taking a breather today, and weâll see how the day shakes out.
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1376.55, Fibonacci 100.0% projection 10/11 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1349.31, Fibonacci 87.5% projection 10/11 range
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1329.92, Fibonacci 78.6% projection 10/11 range
1322.28, high of 1/23/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1277.58, low of 1/13/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.33, 200-day SMA
1257.46, low of 12/30/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1255.22, high of 12/22/2011
1248.64, low of 12/29/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1231.04, high of 12/16/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/11
1215.20, low of 12/16/11
1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/11
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
Source: Robert Colby
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1376.55, Fibonacci 100.0% projection 10/11 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1349.31, Fibonacci 87.5% projection 10/11 range
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1329.92, Fibonacci 78.6% projection 10/11 range
1322.28, high of 1/23/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1277.58, low of 1/13/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.33, 200-day SMA
1257.46, low of 12/30/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1255.22, high of 12/22/2011
1248.64, low of 12/29/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1231.04, high of 12/16/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/11
1215.20, low of 12/16/11
1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/11
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
Source: Robert Colby
ET,
In a market like this, how would you play the ES?
I, like most day-traders here, scalp for half a point to a point. But like your projections and my analysis on time, momentum, and price, I am very convinced that the market has reached it's highest-highs for the year.
My question is this, how would I go about taking most advantage of the current situation being a scalper? Change up the game plan and short 10 contracts till the next pullback? Let it get to expiration and liquidate?
What would you do in the current market as a futures trader?
In a market like this, how would you play the ES?
I, like most day-traders here, scalp for half a point to a point. But like your projections and my analysis on time, momentum, and price, I am very convinced that the market has reached it's highest-highs for the year.
My question is this, how would I go about taking most advantage of the current situation being a scalper? Change up the game plan and short 10 contracts till the next pullback? Let it get to expiration and liquidate?
What would you do in the current market as a futures trader?