Spot the Bear. Weekly chart analysis of S&P500
- Thread starter romik
- Start date
Agreed...it's been CB inspired and they continue to fight tooth and nail to keep this thing in check...Here is a chart with swing lengths from the Nov sell-off and then the Dec sell-off...both in the 115-122 range...That translates to roughly 1952-1959 and the .618 retrace of the Sep 28-Nov move comes in right around those levels...
I think this could be a big deal...Courtesy of Slope of Hope:
I have seen quite similar in GBPYEN monthly chart, which looked at a reversal point, which has now put in H&S and is now breaking the neckline. Everyone is aware that YEN is a safety currency, whenever equity markets are turning the tide.
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Still looking over all the charts..very nice posts guys. Printing these out because there is a lot to look over...but clearly, spotting the bear much more clearly right now. I will start posting again on selling every bounce because I believe this strategy is starting to prove successful.
Figures all of the price discovery is going on in the middle of the night...tagged that lower line very early a.m., and the US RTH session does alot of chop and fill of the range expansions lower made overnight...
You can just feel the liquidity being sucked out of this market...The way the ES was trading last night was a carbon copy of last Aug-Sept...I'm somewhat surprised we haven't had some "glitches", but I'd guess the fact that the RTH market has an upward drift while the overnight market sets the range lower keeps things in a manageable decline state.
The broad indication of a bear phase is considered to be a reduction by 20%, which would equate to SPX trading below 1700 and DJIA below 14400. Interestingly enough DJIA's previous ath was registered at 14k, so IMHO that's where we are heading to, that also means that SPX would overshoot it's 200 day SMA (the way it stands currently at 1780). Whatever happens there depends on a lot of things.
From a time/price perspective, it looks like Mon, Jan 10th a possible swing low date...but this move has gone well beyond those previous swings lower (projected to about 1952.00 in ES), and now it's testing the .618 of that Aug-Nov move and it's still not really oversold...seems that they were really holding this thing together for year end...in particular the FANG's, which have finally come back to some form of reality.
(Should note that the last three downswing's (Sept, Nov, Dec) all lasted 12 days...might not mean much to some people, but I find that there is alot of value in counting TD's of swing moves...
(Should note that the last three downswing's (Sept, Nov, Dec) all lasted 12 days...might not mean much to some people, but I find that there is alot of value in counting TD's of swing moves...