yea. Here, I envy macro strategy shorts who have had the balls to hold strong and are fully positioned to be rewarded.
Spot the Bear. Weekly chart analysis of S&P500
- Thread starter romik
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yea. Here, I envy macro strategy shorts who have had the balls to hold strong and are fully positioned to be rewarded.
odd time for the market to drop. After the Saudi embassy attack in Iran and the Russia/Turkey flare up, I would think that oil may finally get a bid. It may not be enough though, as China is showing full-on stagnation and massive over production/over building in both residential and industrial which could take years to unwind. Europe and Japan also in recession and demand at historical lows. US still producing oil full-on, London/Sidney listed miners still producing at high levels, so a skirmish in the Middle East may not be enough.
Tim Knight at Slope of Hope is one of those guys...I'd read his site back in mid-late October and I kinda felt sick for him...He'd post charts of the energy shorts he had on and those things ripped higher for weeks at a time...I have no idea how some of these guys can stomach the moves of this crazy market...Eventually, as we know now, alot of that stuff fully retraced the Oct move, but sitting on a huge number of shorts with all of these CBer's actively conspiring against one's positions (as they had been doing for 7+ years), that's rough...
Holding a short in a security that's making new highs is 'not my cup of tea', I like having a stop just above below historic ATH/L, of course not always, but often enough price fails to break through them, when it does and you were directionally correct, then there is always a second pass that provides a potentially better entry, but a stop above a now newly established ATH would be required IMO.
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The problem is that with these funds that play the big game, I don't believe they really have that luxury with overnight gaps, holding thru earnings reports, etc...as far as the guy I referenced, he was positioned from higher levels from earlier in the year, so it was open equity giveback and he was still bearish the energy sector...but that rally was fast and furious and then alot of other highly shorted stocks followed suit in short order...I remember the initial stages of that rally consisted of the most shorted stocks far outpacing the broader market...so it's pretty clear where the fuel is coming from when we see these massive rallies at the most opportune times...
yea, we know, they know, sell side knows, pretty much everyone knows...that the economy is shit and that every stock that gets shorted (every index that gets shorted) deserves to be shorted cuz these valuations are garbage at this point. But, none the less, squeezing and gunning for any selling is all they have left...and I am not sure the Fed can really back stop them at this point anymore (maybe ECB or BOJ can?). But this squeezing strategy probably can only last so long before too many main stream hedge funds turn full-on short. There has always been sharp spikes in bear markets and there always will be, that is just part of trading a bear market.
This time they have a lot to lose because they artificially pumped the market back up to pre-2009 highs based on employment lies, economic lies, banking reform lies and lots and lots of rigged US economic data. No one has really trusted the markets since 2008/2009 and very few average people participate/believe/have faith in the US stock market today. So their credibility is very much in question at this point (credibility of the Fed, CNBC, Major banks, Goldman, Investment banking in general, Venture Capital as it pertains to high tech IPOs, Sell Side Analysts, US Treasury, NASDAQ and many, many more US financial institutions).
PS, that 3:30pm NY time ramp had 'plunge protection team" written all over it..which is kind of sad really because all it does is offer another big short opportunity tomorrow morning. Yea PPT is all part of bear market trading but they are both obvious and fairly desperate at this point.
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Cash indices saw Dow break to a 16,000 handle, S&P under 2,000, and Nasdaq under 5,000...before a late-dat $2-3bn MOC buy order out of nowhere lifted everything...
Zerohedge
I've seen mentioned the frequency of major slides abruptly ending right around the European close...I believe it must be 11am (ET)...It occurred today as well, so now it's just something else to keep in mind, especially if/when the market is in its rolling chop lower and the intervention is about to begin.
I see alot lining up at 1955-60 short term in ES...The past two days reminds me of a more volatile version of Nov 9-11...feels completely corrective, but it's a rolling chop that just keeps coming back up and wanting to grab maybe 2020-25 ES before another impulsive move lower.
(Just as I post this, ES dropped maybe 5 pts...might as well just trade this thing in the off hours instead).
(Just as I post this, ES dropped maybe 5 pts...might as well just trade this thing in the off hours instead).